Development of wide-area seismic intensity prediction system using microtremor array survey in Banda Aceh

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takao Sasaki ◽  
Asril ◽  
Yoshinori Furumoto ◽  
Chisa Hikime ◽  
Tetsuya Oba
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Wide Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Banda Aceh

Developing the First Intensity Prediction Equation Based on the Environmental Scale Intensity: A Case Study from Strong Normal-Faulting Earthquakes in the Italian Apennines

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2611-2623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Francesca Ferrario ◽  
Franz Livio ◽  
Stefano Serra Capizzano ◽  
Alessandro M. Michetti
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Empirical Relations ◽  
Italian Apennines ◽  
Local Intensity ◽  
Esi Scale

Abstract Earthquakes produce effects on the built and natural environment, the severity of which decays with distance from the epicenter. Empirical relations describing the intensity attenuation with distance are fundamental for seismic hazard assessment and for deriving parameters for preinstrumental events. Seismic intensity is usually assigned based on damage to buildings and infrastructures; this can be challenging for intensity degrees higher than X or when macroseismic fields of multiple events close in time are overlapping. A complementary approach is the study of earthquake environmental effects (EEEs), which are used to assign intensity on the environmental scale intensity (ESI) scale. However, a quantitative comparison between the ESI and traditional scales, and an equation describing the ESI attenuation with distance are still lacking. Here, we analyze 14 historical and instrumental events (time window 1688–2016) in the central and southern Apennines (Italy), comparing ESI and Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensities. Our results show that ESI consistently provides higher intensity near the epicenter and the attenuation is steeper than MCS. We derive the first intensity prediction equation for the ESI scale, which computes local intensity as a function of distance and epicentral intensity value. We document that, in the near field, the MCS attenuation for shallow crustal events occurred in the twenty-first century is steeper than previous events, whereas the ESI attenuation shows a consistent behavior through time. This result questions the reliability of current empirical relations for the investigation of future events. We recommend including EEEs in intensity assignments because they can guarantee consistency through time and help in evaluating the spatial and temporal evolution of damage progression during seismic sequences, thus ultimately improving seismic risk assessment.

Optimum arrangement of seismic intensity monitoring points for immediate estimation system of wide-area distribution of seismic intensity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshinori Furumoto ◽  
Ayaka Wada ◽  
Tetsu Machida ◽  
Taichi Watanabe ◽  
Michelle Bong
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Wide Area ◽  
Area Distribution ◽  
Optimum Arrangement ◽  
Estimation System

scholarly journals On the Effect of Synthetic and Real Data Properties on Seismic Intensity Prediction Equations

2019 ◽  
Vol 176 (10) ◽  
pp. 4261-4275
Author(s):  
Roman N. Vakarchuk ◽  
Päivi Mäntyniemi ◽  
Ruben E. Tatevossian
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Intensity Prediction

scholarly journals Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Next Generation Global Prediction System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (9) ◽  
pp. 3409-3428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Huey Chen ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
Linjiong Zhou ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Shannon Rees ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Dynamical Core ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Abstract A new global model using the GFDL nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) coupled to physical parameterizations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS) was built at GFDL, named fvGFS. The modern dynamical core, FV3, has been selected for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) due to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, which brings a great opportunity for the unification of weather and climate prediction systems. The performance of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in the 13-km fvGFS is evaluated globally based on 363 daily cases of 10-day forecasts in 2015. Track and intensity errors of TCs in fvGFS are compared to those in the operational GFS. The fvGFS outperforms the GFS in TC intensity prediction for all basins. For TC track prediction, the fvGFS forecasts are substantially better over the northern Atlantic basin and the northern Pacific Ocean than the GFS forecasts. An updated version of the fvGFS with the GFDL 6-category cloud microphysics scheme is also investigated based on the same 363 cases. With this upgraded microphysics scheme, fvGFS shows much improvement in TC intensity prediction over the operational GFS. Besides track and intensity forecasts, the performance of TC genesis forecast is also compared between the fvGFS and operational GFS. In addition to evaluating the hit/false alarm ratios, a novel method is developed to investigate the lengths of TC genesis lead times in the forecasts. Both versions of fvGFS show higher hit ratios, lower false alarm ratios, and longer genesis lead times than those of the GFS model in most of the TC basins.

Characteristics of a new regional seismic-intensity prediction equation for Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 817-832
Author(s):  
Julio Mezcua ◽  
Juan Rueda ◽  
Rosa M. García Blanco
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction

scholarly journals The Interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 2635-2649 ◽  
Author(s):  
I-I. Lin ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
I-Huan Lee ◽  
Chau-Ron Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ocean Mixed Layer ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Abstract Understanding the interaction of ocean eddies with tropical cyclones is critical for improving the understanding and prediction of the tropical cyclone intensity change. Here an investigation is presented of the interaction between Supertyphoon Maemi, the most intense tropical cyclone in 2003, and a warm ocean eddy in the western North Pacific. In September 2003, Maemi passed directly over a prominent (700 km × 500 km) warm ocean eddy when passing over the 22°N eddy-rich zone in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Analyses of satellite altimetry and the best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center show that during the 36 h of the Maemi–eddy encounter, Maemi’s intensity (in 1-min sustained wind) shot up from 41 m s−1 to its peak of 77 m s−1. Maemi subsequently devastated the southern Korean peninsula. Based on results from the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System and satellite microwave sea surface temperature observations, it is suggested that the warm eddies act as an effective insulator between typhoons and the deeper ocean cold water. The typhoon’s self-induced sea surface temperature cooling is suppressed owing to the presence of the thicker upper-ocean mixed layer in the warm eddy, which prevents the deeper cold water from being entrained into the upper-ocean mixed layer. As simulated using the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System, the incorporation of the eddy information yields an evident improvement on Maemi’s intensity evolution, with its peak intensity increased by one category and maintained at category-5 strength for a longer period (36 h) of time. Without the presence of the warm ocean eddy, the intensification is less rapid. This study can serve as a starting point in the largely speculative and unexplored field of typhoon–warm ocean eddy interaction in the western North Pacific. Given the abundance of ocean eddies and intense typhoons in the western North Pacific, these results highlight the importance of a systematic and in-depth investigation of the interaction between typhoons and western North Pacific eddies.

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