scholarly journals Modeling aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from human-exhaled particles in a hospital ward

Author(s):  
Lip Huat Saw ◽  
Bey Fen Leo ◽  
Norefrina Shafinaz Md Nor ◽  
Chee Wai Yip ◽  
Nazlina Ibrahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
1989 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack D. Edinger ◽  
Steven Lipper ◽  
Bobbie Wheeler

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Martin ◽  
Stuart McDonald ◽  
Steve Bale ◽  
Michiel Luteijn ◽  
Rahul Sarkar

Abstract Background This paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Methods Compartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, ‘Optimistic’, ‘Middling’ and ‘Pessimistic’, were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February. Results The key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. Several of the ‘Middling’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths—up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the ‘Pessimistic’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7). Conclusions Mortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. The ‘Middling’ scenario could result in some excess deaths—up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The ‘Pessimistic’ scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.


Gerontology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Jing Jiao ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Lingli Xie ◽  
Qiaoyan Ying ◽  
Chen Zhu ◽  
...  

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Frailty has gained increasing attention as it is by far the most prevalent geriatric condition amongst older patients which heavily impacts chronic health status. However, the relationship between frailty and adverse health outcomes in China is far from clear. This study explored the relation between frailty and a panel of adverse health outcomes. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We performed a multicentre cohort study of older inpatients at 6 large hospitals in China, with two-stage cluster sampling, from October 2018 to April 2019. Frailty was measured according to the FRAIL scale and categorized into robust, pre-frail, and frail. A multivariable logistic regression model and multilevel multivariable negative binomial regression model were used to analyse the relationship between frailty and adverse outcomes. Outcomes were length of hospitalization, as well as falls, readmission, and mortality at 30 and 90 days after enrolment. All regression models were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, surgery, and hospital ward. <b><i>Results:</i></b> We included 9,996 inpatients (median age 72 years and 57.8% male). The overall mortality at 30 and 90 days was 1.23 and 1.88%, respectively. At 30 days, frailty was an independent predictor of falls (odds ratio [OR] 3.19; 95% CI 1.59–6.38), readmission (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.25–1.67), and mortality (OR 3.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10–5.96), adjusted for age, sex, BMI, surgery, and hospital ward clustering effect. At 90 days, frailty had a strong predictive effect on falls (OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.09–4.01), readmission (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.21–1.57), and mortality (OR 6.50; 95% CI 4.00–7.97), adjusted for age, sex, BMI, surgery, and hospital ward clustering effect. There seemed to be a dose-response association between frailty categories and fall or mortality, except for readmission. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Frailty is closely related to falls, readmission, and mortality at 30 or 90 days. Early identification and intervention for frailty amongst older inpatients should be conducted to prevent adverse outcomes.


1989 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack D. Edinger ◽  
Steven Lipper ◽  
Bobbie Wheeler

1993 ◽  
Vol 9 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
M.L. Crowner ◽  
F. Peric ◽  
G. Stepcic ◽  
J. Volavka
Keyword(s):  

1899 ◽  
Vol 45 (191) ◽  
pp. 713-724
Author(s):  
F. Ashby Elkins ◽  
Jas. Middlemass

We think it will be generally acknowledged that the problem which the treatment of noisy, destructive, and dirty patients sets to their medical officers is greatest as regards their management at night. It is then undoubtedly that noise, destructiveness, and dirty habits have the greatest chance of getting free play, and it is then that the efforts for reformation have to be greatest. If these efforts are successful considerably more than half the problem will have been solved. It is to this part of the question, viz. the supervision of such patients during the night, that we desire in this paper to direct attention. At the outset it may be stated that our proposals are not theoretical. They are the result of practical experience gained during the past four years in the Sunderland Asylum. The special arrangements we propose to describe were instituted by one of us at the opening of the institution four years ago. At first a few cases were dealt with tentatively, but, as the first results were so encouraging, the number of cases was gradually increased, until all the patients who were restless, noisy, destructive, or of dirty habits came without exception to be dealt with. The asylum, situated at Ryhope, is a small one, containing only 350 beds, and on this account, as well as because it was new, it was conveniently suited for such an experiment. It may be well before going further to describe the arrangements now in existence there. There are 175 beds for each sex, made up as follows:—45 single rooms, one fully padded, and 2 half-padded; 2 small dormitories of 7 each, 2 of 13 each, 2 of 19 each, and 2 of 26 each. In the last two there is a night attendant, and one also in one of the dormitories for 19, which is the hospital ward. There is, in addition, a head night attendant who visits the patients in these dormitories and also all the remaining patients every hour, or oftener when necessary. There are thus 4 of a night staff for 175 patients. Though this is probably a large proportion compared to most public asylums, it is not claimed as a new departure in asylum management, as we are aware that in a number of asylums the advantage of having a large night staff is fully realised and acted on. The essential feature of the arrangements at Ryhope, to which we wish to direct attention, is the selection of cases placed in dormitories under constant supervision. Of course, all epileptics and suicidal patients are placed there. But, in addition, all recent cases of whatever kind, all dirty and destructive cases, and those who sleep badly and are in consequence inclined to chatter or be noisy, are also placed under constant supervision. Looked at from the other side, all single rooms and dormitories not under constant supervision are reserved for quiet and well-behaved patients who do not require any special attention during the night. This plan has been found to work exceedingly well, and since it was organised we have never had occasion to think of adopting any other. Another testimony to its effectiveness is that those of the staff who have the actual supervision of the patients and have had experience in other asylums are unanimous in their opinion that the arrangement is a very decided improvement. This opinion, let it be observed, is not based on the ground that now their duties are lighter than they were, because, as a matter of fact, they are more onerous.


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