Development of a tracking error prediction system for the CyberKnife Synchrony Respiratory Tracking System with use of support vector regression

From the perspective of stable operation of the power transmission system, the transmission system operators (TSO) needs to procure reserve adjustment power at the stage of the previous day based on solar power forecast information from global horizontal irradiance (GHI). Because the reserve adjustment power is determined based on information on major outliers in past forecasts, reducing the maximum forecast error in addition to improving the average forecast accuracy is extremely important from the perspective of grid operation. In the past, researchers have proposed various methods combining the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning techniques for the one day-ahead solar power forecasting, but the accuracy of NWP has been a bottleneck issue. In recent years, the development of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecasts based on probabilistic approaches has been promoted to improve the accuracy of NWP, and in Japan, EPS forecasts in the mesoscale domain, called mesoscale ensemble prediction system (MEPS), have been distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The use of EPS as a machine learning model is expected to improve the maximum forecast error, as well as the accuracy, since the predictor can utilize various weather scenarios as information. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of EPS on the GHI prediction and the structure of the machine learning model that can effectively use EPS. In this study, we constructed the support vector regression (SVR)-based predictors with multiple network configurations using MEPS as input and evaluated the forecast error of the Kanto region GHI by each model. Through the comparison of the prediction results, it was shown that the machine learning model can achieve average accuracy improvement while reducing the maximum prediction error by MEPS, and knowledge was obtained on how to effectively provide EPS information to the predictor. In addition, machine learning was found to be useful in improving the systematic error of MEPS.

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Support Vector Regression-Based Adaptive Divided Difference Filter for Nonlinear State Estimation Problems

Journal of Applied Mathematics ◽

10.1155/2014/139503 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-10 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hongjian Wang ◽

Jinlong Xu ◽

Aihua Zhang ◽

Cun Li ◽

Hongfei Yao

Keyword(s):

State Estimation ◽

Support Vector Regression ◽

Traffic Control ◽

Divided Difference ◽

Tracking System ◽

Estimation Accuracy ◽

Support Vector ◽

Estimation Errors ◽

Difference Filter ◽

Divided Difference Filter

We present a support vector regression-based adaptive divided difference filter (SVRADDF) algorithm for improving the low state estimation accuracy of nonlinear systems, which are typically affected by large initial estimation errors and imprecise prior knowledge of process and measurement noises. The derivative-free SVRADDF algorithm is significantly simpler to compute than other methods and is implemented using only functional evaluations. The SVRADDF algorithm involves the use of the theoretical and actual covariance of the innovation sequence. Support vector regression (SVR) is employed to generate the adaptive factor to tune the noise covariance at each sampling instant when the measurement update step executes, which improves the algorithm’s robustness. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by estimating states for (i) an underwater nonmaneuvering target bearing-only tracking system and (ii) maneuvering target bearing-only tracking in an air-traffic control system. The simulation results show that the proposed SVRADDF algorithm exhibits better performance when compared with a traditional DDF algorithm.

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