Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake: a review

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panayiotis A. Varotsos ◽  
Nicholas V. Sarlis ◽  
Efthimios S. Skordas
Keyword(s):  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Major Earthquake

Natural time analysis: Estimation of the occurrence time of a major earthquake from the entropy changes of the preceding seismicity.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthimios S Skordas ◽  
Nicholas V. Sarlis ◽  
Mary S Lazaridou-Varotsos ◽  
Panayiotis A Varotsos
Keyword(s):  
Time Reversal ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Entropy Change ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Remarkable Change ◽  
Major Earthquake ◽  
Entropy Changes ◽  
Natural Time ◽  
Natural Time Analysis

<p>By analyzing the seismicity in the new time domain termed natural time [1],  the entropy changes of seismicity before major earthquakes have been studied. It was found [2-5] that the key quantity is the entropy change ΔS under time reversal, which is minimized a few months before major earthquakes such as the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake [2] on 11 March 2011 and the M8.2 Chiapas earthquake [3] in Mexico on 7 September 2017; accompanied by an abrupt increase of its fluctuations [4,5]. Here we discuss how these fluctuations may lead to a procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be estimated [6].</p><p>References</p><p>1. Varotsos P.A., Sarlis N.V. and Skordas E.S., <em>Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series</em> (Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg) 2011.</p><p>2. N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, and P. A. Varotsos, "A remarkable change of the entropy of seismicity in natural time under time reversal before the super-giant M9 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011", EPL (Europhysics Letters), 124 (2018), 29001.</p><p>3. N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas P. A. Varotsos, A. Ramírez-Rojas, E. L. Flores-Márquez, "Natural time analysis: On the deadly Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017", Physica A 506 (2018), 625-634.</p><p>4. P. A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis and E. S. Skordas, "Tsallis Entropy Index q and the Complexity Measure of Seismicity in Natural Time under Time Reversal before the M9 Tohoku Earthquake in 2011", Entropy 20 (2018), 757.</p><p>5. A. Ramírez-Rojas, E. L. Flores-Márquez, N. V. Sarlis and P. A. Varotsos, "The Complexity Measures Associated with the Fluctuations of the Entropy in Natural Time before the Deadly México M8.2 Earthquake on 7 September 2017", Entropy 20 (2018), 477.</p><p>6. E. S. Skordas, N. V. Sarlis and P. A. Varotsos “Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake by means of the fluctuations of the entropy change under time reversal”, EPL (Europhysics Letters), <em>in press</em>.</p>

After the Earth Quakes

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Elizabeth Hough ◽  
Roger G. Bilham
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Water Supplies ◽  
Major Earthquake ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Elastic Rebound ◽  
Future Earthquake ◽  
Human Capacity ◽  
Historic Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Science

Earthquakes rank among the most terrifying natural disasters faced by mankind. Out of a clear blue sky-or worse, a jet black one-comes shaking strong enough to hurl furniture across the room, human bodies out of bed, and entire houses off of their foundations. When the dust settles, the immediate aftermath of an earthquake in an urbanized society can be profound. Phone and water supplies can be disrupted for days, fires erupt, and even a small number of overpass collapses can snarl traffic for months. However, when one examines the collective responses of developed societies to major earthquake disasters in recent historic times, a somewhat surprising theme emerges: not only determination, but resilience; not only resilience, but acceptance; not only acceptance, but astonishingly, humor. Elastic rebound is one of the most basic tenets of modern earthquake science, the term that scientists use to describe the build-up and release of energy along faults. It is also the best metaphor for societal responses to major earthquakes in recent historic times. After The Earth Quakes focuses on this theme, using a number of pivotal and intriguing historic earthquakes as illustration. The book concludes with a consideration of projected future losses on an increasingly urbanized planet, including the near-certainty that a future earthquake will someday claim over a million lives. This grim prediction impels us to take steps to mitigate earthquake risk, the innately human capacity for rebound notwithstanding.

The dating of the ‘Earthquake of the Sabbatical Year’ of 749 C.E. in Palestine

1992 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoram Tsafrir ◽  
Gideon Foerster
Keyword(s):  
Eighth Century ◽  
Jordan Valley ◽  
Major Earthquake ◽  
Exact Date

In the mid eighth century, towards the end of the Umayyad regime, a major earthquake occurred in Palestine and the East, of which we know from Christian, Jewish and Muslim sources. Archaeologists relate to destruction by this earthquake layers in several sites, such as Jerusalem, Gerasa in Arabia, and sites mostly along the Jordan valley, among them Kh. Mefjer near Jericho, Pella, Capernaum, Sussita-Hippos, and recently, Bet Shean-Scythopolis (see below).The exact date of this earthquake is controversial; some scholars date it to 746, others to 747 or 748, In 1960, M. Margaliot suggested that the earthquake took place in 749. In this article we present new archaeological and numismatic evidence in support of this later date (see below p. 234, and pl.II).

scholarly journals Incidence and occurrence time of clinical mastitis in Holstein cows

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 42-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismaïl BOUJENANE ◽  
Jalila EL AIMANI ◽  
Khalid BY
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Mastitis ◽  
Holstein Cows ◽  
Occurrence Time

Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Edwards ◽  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
Hannah Cohn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Secular Changes ◽  
Large Samples ◽  
Length Width ◽  
Path Lengths ◽  
The Many ◽  
Damage Scales

AbstractUnited States tornado records form the basis for a variety of meteorological, climatological and disaster-risk analyses, but how reliable are they in light of changing standards for rating, as with the 2007 transition of Fujita (F) to Enhanced Fujita (EF) damage scales? To what extent are recorded tornado metrics subject to such influences that may be nonmeteorological in nature? While addressing these questions with utmost thoroughness is too large of a task for any one study, and may not be possible given the many variables and uncertainties involved, some variables that are recorded in large samples are ripe for new examination. We assess basic tornado-path characteristics—damage rating, length, width, and occurrence time, as well as some combined and derived measures—for a 24-yr period of constant path-width recording standard that also coincides with National Weather Service modernization and the WSR-88D deployment era. The middle of that period (in both time and approximate tornado counts) crosses the official switch from F to EF. At least minor shifts in all assessed path variables are associated directly with that change, contrary to the intent of EF implementation. Major and essentially stepwise expansion of tornadic path widths occurred immediately upon EF usage, and widths have expanded still further within the EF era. We also document lesser increases in path lengths, and in tornadoes rated at least EF1 compared to EF0. These apparently secular changes in the tornado data can impact research dependent on bulk tornado-path characteristics and damage-assessment results.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document