The Evolution of Preseismic Patterns Related to the Central Crete (Mw6.0) Strong Earthquake on 27 September 2021 Revealed by Multiresolution Wavelets and Natural Time Analysis

On 27 September 2021, a shallow earthquake with focal depth of 10 km and moment magnitude Mw6.0 occurred onshore in central Crete (Greece). The evolution of possible preseismic patterns in the area of central Crete before the Mw6.0 event was investigated by applying the method of multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA), along with that of natural time (NT). The monitoring of preseismic patterns by critical parameters defined by NT analysis, integrated with the results of MRWA as the initiation point for the NT analysis, forms a promising framework that may lead to new universal principles that describe the evolution patterns before strong earthquakes. Initially, we apply MRWA to the interevent time series of the successive regional earthquakes in order to investigate the approach of the regional seismicity towards critical stages and to define the starting point of the natural time domain. Then, using the results of MRWA, we apply the NT analysis, showing that the regional seismicity approached criticality for a prolonged period of ~40 days before the occurrence of the Mw6.0 earthquake, when the κ1 natural time parameter reached the critical value of κ1 = 0.070, as suggested by the NT method.

Detecting Criticality by Exploring the Acoustic Activity in Terms of the “Natural-Time” Concept

The acoustic activity developed in marble specimens under various loading schemes is explored in terms of the recently introduced F-function. The novelty of the study is that instead of describing the temporal evolution of the F-function in terms of conventional time, the Natural Time concept is employed. Although completely different geometries and loading schemes were considered, the evolution of the F-function in the Natural Time domain exhibits a self-consistent motive: its values increase progressively with fluctuations of varying intensity, however, while the fracture is approaching, a power law appears to systematically govern the response of the specimen/structure loaded. The exponent of this law, somehow corresponding to the intensity of the acoustic activity within the loaded complex, varies within broad limits. The onset of validity of the power law designates that the system has entered into its critical stage, namely that of impending fracture, providing a useful pre-failure signal.

Unusual Surface Latent Heat Flux Variations and Their Critical Dynamics Revealed before Strong Earthquakes

We focus on the possible thermal channel of the well-known Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) mechanism to identify the behavior of thermal anomalies during and prior to strong seismic events. For this, we investigate the variation of Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) as resulting from satellite observables. We demonstrate a spatio-temporal variation in the SLHF before and after a set of strong seismic events occurred in Kathmandu, Nepal, and Kumamoto, Japan, having magnitudes of 7.8, 7.3, and 7.0, respectively. Before the studied earthquake cases, significant enhancements in the SLHF were identified near the epicenters. Additionally, in order to check whether critical dynamics, as the signature of a complex phenomenon such as earthquake preparation, are reflected in the SLHF data, we performed a criticality analysis using the natural time analysis method. The approach to criticality was detected within one week before each mainshock.

Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern California, Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting

It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area N1035W80120. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M ≥7.0 that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M ≥7.0 EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area.

Impact of Anthropogenic Activities and Sea Level Rise on a Lagoon System: Model and Field Observations

The long-term geomorphological evolution of a coastal lagoon is driven by hydrodynamic forcing and is influenced by climate changes and human activities. In this study, a numerical model of the Qilihai lagoon (QL) system was established based on field measurements, previous hydrology data and satellite remote sensing measurements, to simulate the geomorphological evolution of QL from 1900 to 2018. The influences of sea level rise, runoff and human activities on the evolution of geomorphology were investigated. The results of the model show that the construction projects including the tide gate, the bridge, reclamation and the straightening or widening of the tidal channel increased the net deposition within the QL system. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of tidal asymmetry during the natural time period was similar to that of the change in bed thickness. However, bed erosion or deposition was not only dependent on tidal asymmetry but it was also affected by the external sediment supply and the discharge of upstream rivers. Moreover, sea level rise had a significant effect on the tidal asymmetry; therefore, it enhanced the accumulation of sediments in the QL system, while runoff had little effect on the tidal asymmetry or geomorphological changes in the system.

Long-Range Correlations and Natural Time Series Analyses from Acoustic Emission Signals

This work focuses on analyzing acoustic emission (AE) signals as a means to predict failure in structures. Two main approaches are considered: (i) long-range correlation analysis using both the Hurst (H) and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) exponents, and (ii) natural time domain (NT) analysis. These methodologies are applied to the data collected from two application examples: a glass fiber reinforced polymeric plate and a spaghetti bridge model, where both structures were subjected to increasing loads until collapse. A traditional (AE) signal analysis is also performed to reference the study of the other methods. Results indicate that the proposed methods yield a reliable indication of failure in the studied structures.

Detailing the effects of polypharmacy in psychiatry: longitudinal study of 320 patients hospitalized for depression or schizophrenia

Current treatment standards in psychiatry are oriented towards polypharmacy, that is, patients receive combinations of several antidepressants, antipsychotics, mood stabilizers, anxiolytics, hypnotics, antihistamines, and anticholinergics, along with other somatic treatments. In tandem with the beneficial effects of psychopharmacological drug treatment, patients experience significant adverse reactions which appear to have become more frequent and more severe with the rise of ubiquitous polypharmacy. In this study, we aimed to assess today’s acute inpatient treatment of depressive and schizophrenic disorders with focus on therapeutic strategies, medications, adverse side effects, time course of recovery, and efficacy of treatments. Of particular interest was the weighing of the benefits and drawbacks of polypharmacy regimens. We recruited a total of 320 patients hospitalized at three residential mental health treatment centers with a diagnosis of either schizophrenic (ICD-10: “F2x.x”; n = 94; “F2 patients”) or depressive disorders (ICD-10: “F3x.x”; n = 226; “F3 patients”). The study protocol included (1) assessment of previous history by means of the SADS Syndrome Check List SSCL-16 (lifetime version); (2) repeated measurements over 5 weeks assessing the time course of improvement by the Hamilton Depression Scale HAM-D and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale PANSS, along with medications and adverse side effects through the Medication and Side Effects Inventory MEDIS; and (3) the collection of blood samples from which DNA and serum were extracted. Polypharmacy was by far the most common treatment regimen (85%) in this study. On average, patients received 4.50 ± 2.68 medications, consisting of 3.30 ± 1.84 psychotropic drugs, plus 0.79 ± 1.13 medications that alleviate adverse side effects, plus 0.41 ± 0.89 other somatic medications. The treating psychiatrists appeared to be the main determining factor in this context, while «previous history» and «severity at baseline» played a minor role, if at all. Adverse drug reactions were found to be an inherent component of polypharmacy and tended to have a 2–3 times higher incidence compared to monotherapy. Severe adverse reactions could not be attributed to a particular drug or drug combination. Rather, the empirical data suggested that severe side effects can be triggered by virtually all combinations of drugs, provided patients have a respective vulnerability. In terms of efficacy, there were no advantages of polypharmacy over monotherapy. The results of this study underlined the fact that polypharmacy regimens are not equally suited for every patient. Specifically, such regimens appeared to have a negative impact on treatment outcome and to obfuscate the “natural” time course of recovery through a multitude of interfering factors. Evidence clearly speaks against starting just every therapeutic intervention in psychiatry with a combination of psychopharmaceuticals. We think that it is time for psychiatry to reconsider its treatment strategies, which are far too one-sidedly fixated on psychopharmacology and pay far too little attention to alternative approaches, especially in mild cases where psychotherapy without concurrent medication should still be an option. Also, regular exercises and sports can definitely be an effective therapeutic means in a considerable number of cases. General practitioners (GPs) are particularly in demand here.

Time-dependence of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Ambient Aerosols: Laboratory Observations and a Formulation for Models

The time dependence of ice-nucleating particle (INP) activity is known to exist, yet for simplicity it is often omitted in atmospheric models as an approximation. Hitherto only limited experimental work has been done to quantify this time dependency, for which published data are especially scarce regarding ambient aerosol samples and longer time scales. In this study, the time dependence of INP activity is quantified experimentally for ambient environmental samples. The experimental approach includes a series of hybrid experiments with alternating constant cooling and isothermal experiments using a recently developed cold-stage setup called the Lund University Cold-Stage (LUCS). This approach of observing ambient aerosol samples provides the optimum realism for representing their time dependence in any model. Six ambient aerosol samples were collected representing aerosol conditions likely influenced by these types of INPs: marine, mineral dust, continental pristine, continental polluted, combustion-related and rural continental aerosol. Active INP concentrations were seen to be augmented by about 40 % to 100 % (or 70 % to 200 %), depending on the sample, over 2 (or 10) hours. This degree of time dependence observed was comparable to that seen in previous published works. Our observations show that the minority of active ice nuclei (IN) with strong time dependency on hourly time scales display only weak time dependence on short time scales of a few minutes. A general tendency was observed for the natural time scale of the freezing to dilate increasingly with time. The fractional freezing rate was observed to steadily declines exponentially with the order of magnitude (logarithm) of the time since the start of isothermal conditions. A representation of time dependence for incorporation into schemes of heterogeneous ice nucleation that currently omit time dependence is proposed.

Seismic Analysis of a Residential Building Considering Different Types of Opening Arrangement in the Infill Wall

Infill walls are inevitable components of any structure to create dispassion between interior space and external condition. In general, there are some prevalent openings inside the infill walls because of practical needs, architectural observations or aesthetic inspections. In current design practice, strength and inflexibility contribution of infill walls aren't thought of. However, the presence of infill walls may impact the seismic reaction of structures exposed to earthquake loads and cause a conduct which is not the same as that estimated for a bare frame. Additionally, partial openings inside infill walls are significant parameter prompting the seismic behaviour of infilled frames in this manner retreating lateral stiffness and strength. In this study is proposed to compare various models of buildings considering the openings (10% of surface area) at different locations in the infill walls for the seismic behaviour. A G+13 residential building is considered in Zone III with soil type II and analysis is carried out by Response Spectrum Method. Various parameters are considered such as Natural Time period, Base shear, Storey displacement, Storey drift and Storey stiffness were studied. The comparative study could simplify designers and code developers in selecting and recommending appropriate analytical models for estimating strength, stiffness, failure modes and other properties of infill frames with openings. Keywords: Residential Building, Openings Infill Wall, ETAB Software, Natural Time Period, Base Shear, Storey Shear, Storey Displacement, Storey Drift, Storey Stiffness.

Comparative Study of Soil Structure Interaction Analysis of Building on Clayey and Sandy Soil

Present days the analysis of structure with seismic design is more popular. because the first priority of the engineer is effective and durable structure. There are two type of base system first is rigid and second is flexible. In case of flexible base structure, only seismic analysis is not give very effective results. In this condition the SSI effect is more significant and give effective results for flexible base system. The term Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) means interaction between soil to the substructure. This effect give more accurate results after consider in the seismic analysis. If a structure is design according to the seismic analysis with SSI effect than structure could get more durability and safety against earthquake as compare to seismic analysis without SSI effect condition. So the SSI effect can change response of the seismic very significantly. The present study aim is based on seismic analysis of building with Soil Structure Interaction effect on two different soil. A frame rectangular building of G+6 storey has analyzed for flexible base simulating sand and clay soil conditions The software is used SAP2000. Raft foundation has been modeled also. Analysis is made with the response spectrum of IS 1893 2016 code. Seismic response of SSI analysis results are compare in terms of lateral storey displacement, base shear and modal behavior of natural time period on different type of soil ( clay and sand). and conclude that the lateral storey displacement, base shear and natural time period values in SSI analysis with sand soil is maximum as compare to clay soil.