The impact of climate change on forest fire danger rating in China’s boreal forest

Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

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Changes in forest fire danger for south-western China in the 21st century

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf13014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 185 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Xiao-rui Tian ◽

Feng-jun Zhao ◽

Li-fu Shu ◽

Ming-yu Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Eastern China ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Western China ◽

Fire Season ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Forest Fire Danger ◽

Extreme Fire

This paper predicts future changes in fire danger and the fire season in the current century for south-western China under two different climate change scenarios. The fire weather index (FWI) system calculated from daily outputs of a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 50×50km was used to assess fire danger. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a gradually increasing trend for the future. Forest fire statistics for 1987–2011 revealed that the FWI, initial spread index and seasonal severity rating were significantly related to the number of forest fires between 100 and 1000ha in size. Over three future periods, the FWI component indices will increase greatly. The mean FWI value will increase by 0.83–1.85, 1.83–2.91 and 3.33–3.97 in the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The regions with predicted FWI increases are mainly in central and south-eastern China. The fire season (including days with high, very high and extreme fire danger ratings) will be prolonged by 9–13, 18–21 and 28–31 days over these periods. This fire season extension will mainly be due to days with an extreme fire danger rating. Considering predicted future changes in the forest fire danger rating and the fire season, it is suggested that climate change adaptation measures be implemented.

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Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Journal of Forestry Research ◽

10.1007/s11676-011-0185-5 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 437-446 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Xiao-rui Tian ◽

Li-fu Shu ◽

Feng-jun Zhao ◽

Ming-yu Wang ◽

Douglas J. McRae

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Northeastern China ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Forest Fire Danger ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Assessment of forest fire danger in a boreal forest environment: description and evaluation of the operational system applied in Finland

Meteorological Applications ◽

10.1002/met.1425 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 21 (4) ◽

pp. 879-887 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Andrea Vajda ◽

Ari Venäläinen ◽

Irene Suomi ◽

Päivi Junila ◽

Hanna M. Mäkelä

Keyword(s):

Boreal Forest ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Forest Environment ◽

Operational System ◽

Forest Fire Danger

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Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11164284 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (16) ◽

pp. 4284 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Vassiliki Varela ◽

Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽

Athanasios Sfetsos ◽

Stelios Karozis ◽

Nadia Politi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Fire Severity ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Future Time Period ◽

Forest Fire Danger ◽

Decision Support Process

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

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