Changes in forest fire danger for south-western China in the 21st century

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-rui Tian ◽  
Feng-jun Zhao ◽  
Li-fu Shu ◽  
Ming-yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Western China ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Extreme Fire

This paper predicts future changes in fire danger and the fire season in the current century for south-western China under two different climate change scenarios. The fire weather index (FWI) system calculated from daily outputs of a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 50×50km was used to assess fire danger. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a gradually increasing trend for the future. Forest fire statistics for 1987–2011 revealed that the FWI, initial spread index and seasonal severity rating were significantly related to the number of forest fires between 100 and 1000ha in size. Over three future periods, the FWI component indices will increase greatly. The mean FWI value will increase by 0.83–1.85, 1.83–2.91 and 3.33–3.97 in the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The regions with predicted FWI increases are mainly in central and south-eastern China. The fire season (including days with high, very high and extreme fire danger ratings) will be prolonged by 9–13, 18–21 and 28–31 days over these periods. This fire season extension will mainly be due to days with an extreme fire danger rating. Considering predicted future changes in the forest fire danger rating and the fire season, it is suggested that climate change adaptation measures be implemented.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1477-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
O. Hyvärinen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract. Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.

scholarly journals Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassiliki Varela ◽  
Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽  
Athanasios Sfetsos ◽  
Stelios Karozis ◽  
Nadia Politi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Decision Support Process

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

scholarly journals Surface fire spread potential in trembling aspen during summer in the Boreal Forest Region of Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Trembling Aspen ◽  
Fuel Type ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

In Canada, the importance of seasonality in forest fire danger rating associated with phenological changes in deciduous tree leaves and lesser ground vegetation has historically been taken into account by dividing the fire season into three distinct periods (i.e., spring, summer, and fall). During the mid-1980s, the developers of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System did not envision that the M-2 Boreal Mixedwood – Green fuel type with 100% hardwood composition would eventually be explicitly interpreted by field users and other researchers to represent a trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) fuel type in the summer following green-up or flushing of the overstory canopy and understory vegetation. Interest in what has become to be known as the D-2 FBP System fuel type to represent leafed-out trembling aspen stands during the summer fire season has steadily increased since. Formal recognition of such a fuel type may very well constitute an example of overextending the original basis and heuristics associated with the rate of fire spread model for the M-2 FBP System fuel type. Thus, the assumptions underlying a D-2 fuel type are explicitly restated here for the benefit of fire managers and researchers alike. Furthermore, an interim guideline is presented with respect to the threshold condition in fuel dryness necessary for surface fire spread in the D-2 fuel type to occur based on existing empirical observations garnered from experimental fires, prescribed burns and wildfires. This criterion was deduced from existing information and knowledge, and is expressed in terms of the Buildup Index (BUI) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The rationale for the descriptive name assigned to the D-2 fuel type and the corresponding fuel strata characteristics are given. Improvements in the present basis of the D-2 fuel type could be realized from monitoring selected wildfires and operational prescribed fires and/or by carrying out an experimental burning study. Key words: Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System,Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System,Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System,deciduous,fire behavior, fire danger, fire environment, fire hazard, fire potential, fire risk, forest flammability, fuel type, fuel moisture, green-up, hardwood, rate of fire spread.

scholarly journals Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 185-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bedia ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
A. Camia ◽  
J. M. Moreno ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-rui Tian ◽  
Li-fu Shu ◽  
Feng-jun Zhao ◽  
Ming-yu Wang ◽  
Douglas J. McRae
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Douglas J. McRae ◽  
Jizhong Jin ◽  
Lifu Shu ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

The impact of climate change on forest fire danger rating in China’s boreal forest

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang Yang ◽  
Xue-ying Di ◽  
Qing-xi Guo ◽  
Zhan Shu ◽  
Tao Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
The Impact
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