scholarly journals Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India

2014 ◽  
Vol 123 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
V S PRASAD ◽  
SAJI MOHANDAS ◽  
SURYA KANTI DUTTA ◽  
M DAS GUPTA ◽  
G R IYENGAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals An operational medium range local weather forecasting system developed in India

2000 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok Kumar ◽  
Parvinder Maini ◽  
L.S. Rathore ◽  
S.V. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Local Weather

Impact of Coupling with an Ice–Ocean Model on Global Medium-Range NWP Forecast Skill

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory C. Smith ◽  
Jean-Marc Bélanger ◽  
François Roy ◽  
Pierre Pellerin ◽  
Hal Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact

The importance of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean for forecasting on time scales of hours to weeks has been demonstrated for a range of physical processes. Here, the authors evaluate the impact of an interactive air–sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and an ice–ocean forecasting system. This system was developed in the context of an experimental forecasting system that is now running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. The authors show that the most significant impact is found to be associated with a decreased cyclone intensification, with a reduction in the tropical cyclone false alarm ratio. This results in a 15% decrease in standard deviation errors in geopotential height fields for 120-h forecasts in areas of active cyclone development, with commensurate benefits for wind, temperature, and humidity fields. Whereas impacts on surface fields are found locally in the vicinity of cyclone activity, large-scale improvements in the mid-to-upper troposphere are found with positive global implications for forecast skill. Moreover, coupling is found to produce fairly constant reductions in standard deviation error growth for forecast days 1–7 of about 5% over the northern extratropics in July and August and 15% over the tropics in January and February. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a statistically significant positive impact of coupling has been shown in an operational global medium-range deterministic numerical weather prediction framework.

scholarly journals Dynamic downscaling of the ERA-40 data using a mesoscale meteorological model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. PAPADOPOULOS ◽  
G. KORRES ◽  
P. KATSAFADOS ◽  
D. BALLAS ◽  
L. PERIVOLIOTIS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System

A sophisticated downscaling procedure that was applied to reproduce high resolution historical records of the atmospheric conditions across the Mediterranean region is presented in this paper. This was accomplished by the dynamical downscaling of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts ERA-40 reanalyses with the aid of the atmospheric model of the POSEIDON weather forecasting system. The full three dimensional atmospheric fields with 6 hours of temporal resolution and the surface meteorological parameters at hourly intervals were produced for a 10-year period (1995-2004). The meteorological variables are readily available at 10 km resolution and may constitute the atmospheric forcing to drive wave, ocean hydrodynamic and hydrological models, as well as the baseline data for environmental impact assessment studies. A brief overview of the procedure and a quantitative estimation of the benefit of the new dynamical downscaling dataset are presented.

scholarly journals Evaluation of bias free rainfall forecasts and Kalman filtered temperature forecasts of T-80 model over Indian monsoon region

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-166
Author(s):  
RASHMI BHARDWAJ ◽  
ASHOK KUMAR ◽  
PARVINDER MAINI
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
Surface Weather ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Weather Parameters

  A forecasting system for obtaining objective medium range location specific forecast of surface weather elements is evolved at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). The basic information used for this is the output from   the general circulation models (GCMs) T-80/T-254 operational at NCMRWF. The most essential component of the system is Direct Model Output (DMO) forecast. This is explained in brief.  Direct Model Output (DMO) forecast is obtained from the predicted surface weather elements from the GCM. The two important weather parameters considered in detail are rainfall and temperature. Both the weather parameters  have biases. While the bias from the rainfall is reduced by adopting bias removal technique based upon  threshold values for rainfall and for removing bias from temperature forecast a two parameter Kalman filter is applied. The techniques used for getting bias free forecast are explained in detail. Finally an evaluation of the forecast skill for the  Kalman filtered temperature forecast and  bias free rainfall forecast during monsoon 2007 is presented.

scholarly journals The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (6) ◽  
pp. 1924-1944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Charron ◽  
Saroja Polavarapu ◽  
Mark Buehner ◽  
P. A. Vaillancourt ◽  
Cécilien Charette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Winter Hemisphere ◽  
Radiation Scheme

Abstract A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave tendencies and methane oxidation were introduced, and a new radiation scheme was implemented. Because of the higher lid height of 0.1 hPa, new measurements between 10 and 0.1 hPa were also added. This new high-top system resulted not only in dramatically improved forecasts of the stratosphere, but also in large improvements in medium-range tropospheric forecast skill. Pairs of assimilation experiments reveal that most of the stratospheric and tropospheric forecast improvement is obtained without the extra observations in the upper stratosphere. However, these observations further improve forecasts in the winter hemisphere but not in the summer hemisphere. Pairs of forecast experiments were run in which initial conditions were the same for each experiment but the forecast model differed. The large improvements in stratospheric forecast skill are found to be due to the higher lid height of the new model. The new radiation scheme helps to improve tropospheric forecasts. However, the degree of improvement seen in tropospheric forecast skill could not be entirely explained with these purely forecast experiments. It is hypothesized that the cycling of a better model and assimilation provide improved initial conditions, which result in improved forecasts.

Catastrophic Effects of Floods on Environment and Health: Evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Falak Shad Memon ◽  
M. Yousuf Sharjeel
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Human Life ◽  
National Level ◽  
Operational Cost ◽  
Site Assessment ◽  
Environment And Health ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Frame Work ◽  
Multiple Levels

<span>Torrential rains and floods have been causing irreplaceable losses to both human lives and environment in <span>Pakistan. This loss has reached to an extent of assively aggrieved situation to reinstate life at <span>operationally viable position. This paper unfolds the notion that only constructive paradigm shift to <span>overcome this phenomenon is vital as a strategy. Multiple levels of observations and on-site assessment <span>of various calamity-prone venues were considered to probe into this scenario. Some of the grave site in <span>Sindh and Punjab were observed and necessarily practicable measures were recommended to avoid loss to <span>human health and environment. The paper finds that a consistent drastic management authority on <span>national level with appropriate caliber and forecasting expertise can reduce the damage to human life and <span>environment to great extent. Weather forecasting system need to be installed at many appropriately <span>observed cities and towns in the country with adequate man power, funds and technical recourses. By <span>implementing the proper frame work of prevention and mitigation of floods country can save the major <span>costs cleanup and recovery. These measures are expected to reduce operational cost of state in terms of <span>GDP and GNP to restore life and environment.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br /><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></span>

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

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