scholarly journals Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Seaside, Oregon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenqiang Wang ◽  
Gaofeng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Evacuation Route

AbstractTypically, tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route. However, tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation, and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively. This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk. An agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation, which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk. The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route. The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode (for example, on foot or by car) and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated. The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach. The proposed approach is applied to the risk-informed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon. The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area. The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.

scholarly journals Are current tsunami evacuation approaches safe enough?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
Flavia De Luca ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simplified Approach ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Evacuation Plan ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Destination Point

AbstractDeveloping an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.

Tsunami Safe Town Planning with Evacuation Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (sp) ◽  
pp. 719-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiyuki Yoshida ◽  
◽  
Takeshi Kimura ◽  
Yoshikazu Minegishi ◽  
Tomonori Sano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Time Required

Tsunami evacuation plans have been deliberately developed by local governments in coastal areas in Japan under guidance from the national government since before the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. These plans, however, do not mention the time required for all local residents to evacuate to evacuation areas. This paper reports a procedure to design an effective tsunami safe town planning using multi-agent simulator (MAS) which identify a degree of evacuation risk in objective area. A case study is applied to one of the worst hit town of tsunami, in which additional facilities such as evacuation areas, safe buildings, and evacuation routes are proposed as well.

Large-Scale Agent-Based Models for Transportation Network Management under Unplanned Events

2014 ◽  
pp. 206-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunjie Zhao ◽  
Adel W. Sadek
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Simulation System ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Transportation Modeling ◽  
Major Incidents

The focus of this chapter is on issues surrounding the development and applications of large-scale agent-based traffic models. Following a brief overview of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) applications in transportation modeling, the chapter proceeds to describe the authors’ continued efforts and experiences with the development, calibration, validation, and application of a regional agent-based traffic model of the Buffalo-Niagara metropolitan area. The model is developed using the TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System (TRANSIMS), an open-source, agent-based suite of transportation models. A unique feature of the chapter is its focus on unplanned or extreme events, such as severe snowstorms and major incidents on the freeways, and how the models may be calibrated and applied under such situations. The chapter concludes by summarizing the main lessons learned from the Buffalo case study and providing suggestions for future research.

Large-Scale Agent-Based Models for Transportation Network Management under Unplanned Events

2015 ◽  
pp. 1316-1341
Author(s):  
Yunjie Zhao ◽  
Adel W. Sadek
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Simulation System ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Transportation Modeling ◽  
Major Incidents

The focus of this chapter is on issues surrounding the development and applications of large-scale agent-based traffic models. Following a brief overview of Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) applications in transportation modeling, the chapter proceeds to describe the authors' continued efforts and experiences with the development, calibration, validation, and application of a regional agent-based traffic model of the Buffalo-Niagara metropolitan area. The model is developed using the TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System (TRANSIMS), an open-source, agent-based suite of transportation models. A unique feature of the chapter is its focus on unplanned or extreme events, such as severe snowstorms and major incidents on the freeways, and how the models may be calibrated and applied under such situations. The chapter concludes by summarizing the main lessons learned from the Buffalo case study and providing suggestions for future research.

An agent-based modeling approach to predict the evolution of market share of electric vehicles: A case study from Iceland

2012 ◽  
Vol 79 (9) ◽  
pp. 1638-1653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Shafiei ◽  
Hedinn Thorkelsson ◽  
Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson ◽  
Brynhildur Davidsdottir ◽  
Marco Raberto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modeling Approach

Simulation based optimal evacuation plan in vertical ship lift: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 1757-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Ping Wang ◽  
Mei-Ru Wang ◽  
Jian-Lan Zhou ◽  
Qing-Jun Zuo ◽  
Xun-Xian Shi
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Fire Evacuation ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Evacuation Model ◽  
Evacuation Plan

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop optimal evacuation plan to provide valuable theoretical and practical insight in the fire evacuation work of similar structures, by proposing a systematic simulation-based guided-evacuation agent-based model (GAM) and a three-stage mathematical evacuation model to investigate how to simulate, assess and improve the performance efficiency of the evacuation plan. Design/methodology/approach The authors first present the self-evacuation and guided-evacuation models to determine the optimal evacuation plan in ship chamber. Three key performance indicators are put forward to quantitatively assess the evacuation performance within the two fire scenarios. The evacuation model in tower is built to obtain the dividing points of the three different fire evacuation plans. Findings The study shows that the optimal evacuation plan determined by the GAM considering social relationships effectively relieves the congestion or collision of evacuees and improves the evacuation uniformity. The optimal evacuation plan not only solves the crush caused by congestion or collision of evacuees but also can greatly shorten the evacuation time for passenger ship fire. Originality/value This study establishes the GAM considering the interactive evacuee characteristics and the proportion of evacuees guided by the crew members to make the optimal evacuation plan more time-efficient. The self-evacuation process is simulated to assess the performance of the guided-evacuation strategies, which are used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the optimal evacuation plan in this research.

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