Challenges Associated with Creeping Disasters in Disaster Risk Science and Practice: Considering Disaster Onset Dynamics

In this article, we set out to reconcile a general conceptualization of disaster temporalities by drawing on the epitome example of a creeping disaster, namely famine. Our argument is driven by the recognition that slowly manifesting disaster impacts pose distinct challenges for decision makers and researchers while there is a tendency for the disaster literature to overlook the role of disaster onset dynamics. More specifically and as a starting point, we identify four key themes that merit particular attention when dealing with creeping disasters: (1) our understanding of disaster as a phenomenon; (2) measurement and operationalization; (3) early warning and response; and (4) disaster management and termination. By integrating conceptual discussions of disaster with famine scholarship—a phenomenon often excluded from mainstream disaster research—this article provides fresh perspectives on disaster science as well as a number of implications for how we think about disaster risk reduction.

Attentiveness to Early Warning Drought Information: Implications for Policy Support and Climate Risk Reduction in Ghana

Successful drought planning is dependent on the generation of timely and accurate early warning information. Yet there is little evidence to explain the extent to which crop farmers pay attention to and assimilate early warning drought information that aids in the policy formulation in support of drought risk reduction. A socioecological survey, using a structured questionnaire administered to 426 crop farming households, was carried out in the Talensi District of the Upper East Region, Ghana. The data analytic techniques used were frequency tables, relative importance index, and multinomial logistics embedded in SPSS v.20 software. The results show that crop farmers predominantly rely on agricultural extension officers for early warning drought information, with an estimated 78% of them paying little to very much attention to the information. The likelihood ratio Chi-square test showed that there is a significant improvement in fit as X2 (20) = 96.792, p < 0.000. Household status, average monthly income, and age were the significant predictors for crop farmers paying no attention at all to early warning drought information, while household status was the only significant factor among those paying a little attention. The drive to build a climate-resilient society with effective early warning centers across Ghana will receive 60% lower support from crop farmers paying no to a little attention as compared to farmers paying very much attention to early warning drought information. Broader stakeholder engagements should be carried out to harness inclusive support from crop farmers to build a climate-resilient society in Ghana.

When It Strikes, Are We Ready? Lessons Identified at the 7th Planetary Defense Conference in Preparing for a Near-Earth Object Impact Scenario

Near-Earth object (NEO) impact is one of the examples of high impact and low probability (HILP) event, same as the Covid-19 pandemic the world faces since the beginning of 2020. The 7th Planetary Defense Conference held by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) in April 2021 included an exercise on a hypothetical NEO impact event, allowing the planetary defense community to discuss potential responses. Over the span of the 4-day conference this exercise connected disaster response and management professionals to participate in a series of panels, providing feedback and perspective on the unfolding crisis scenario. The hypothetical but realistic asteroid threat scenario illustrated how such a short-warning threat might evolve. The scenario utilized during the conference indicates a need to prepare now for what might come in the future, because even with advance notice, preparation time might be minimal. This scenario chose Europe for the impact, which may likely cope with such a disaster, through the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) and other solidarity and support mechanisms within the European Union (EU), as well as with potential support from international partners. This short article raises concern about other areas in the world on how they may access NEO impact information and cope with such disasters. It also provides an idea on vast scale of such disaster vis-à-vis the current capacity of response systems to cope with a larger event in Europe or elsewhere. This scenario showed that planetary defense is a global endeavor. Constant engagement of the planetary defense and disaster response communities is essential in order to keep the world safe from potential disasters caused by NEO impacts.

Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Seaside, Oregon

Typically, tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route. However, tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation, and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively. This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk. An agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation, which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk. The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route. The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode (for example, on foot or by car) and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated. The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach. The proposed approach is applied to the risk-informed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon. The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area. The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.

A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas

Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas. We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015, and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities. We found that more than two thirds of population growth (or 70% of total population in 2015) and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths (or 307,918 deaths) in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio (percentage of urban population to total population) between 20 and 60%. Holding other factors constant, population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities, while the area of urban land was negatively related. The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low, but after a ratio between 40 and 50% occurs, earthquake fatalities decline. This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation. Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050, more than 50% of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities, enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority.

A Rapid Prediction Model of Urban Flood Inundation in a High-Risk Area Coupling Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation Approaches

Climate change has led to increasing frequency of sudden extreme heavy rainfall events in cities, resulting in great disaster losses. Therefore, in emergency management, we need to be timely in predicting urban floods. Although the existing machine learning models can quickly predict the depth of stagnant water, these models only target single points and require large amounts of measured data, which are currently lacking. Although numerical models can accurately simulate and predict such events, it takes a long time to perform the associated calculations, especially two-dimensional large-scale calculations, which cannot meet the needs of emergency management. Therefore, this article proposes a method of coupling neural networks and numerical models that can simulate and identify areas at high risk from urban floods and quickly predict the depth of water accumulation in these areas. Taking a drainage area in Tianjin Municipality, China, as an example, the results show that the simulation accuracy of this method is high, the Nash coefficient is 0.876, and the calculation time is 20 seconds. This method can quickly and accurately simulate the depth of water accumulation in high-risk areas in cities and provide technical support for urban flood emergency management.

Risk Information Sources for Snow Disaster Risk Preparedness in Scotland

Heavy snow disruptions are common and costly occurrences in the UK, including Scotland. Yet, heavy snow remains an underresearched aspect of disaster risks in Scotland. This study critically examined the 2018 heavy snow event in Scotland referred to as the “Beast from the East” (BfE) in order to explore the different sources of information used by the public in preparation for and response to heavy snow emergencies. Our study also examined the effectiveness of BfE risk communication between authorities and the public and sought to determine if there is a relationship between risk information received and the intention to mitigate risk. Data were collected through a semistructured survey from (n = 180) residents of the Annandale and Eskdale region of Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland. Our analysis shows that public authority information sources were the most sought-after information sources, followed by online and web sources. We found statistically significant differences between groups (such as age, gender, and mobility/disability) in terms of using risk information sources. Further analysis shows that the relationship between information received and the intention to mitigate risks is not linear but influenced by intervening variables such as work pressures, financial commitment, and stakeholders’ expectations. We argue that where full adherence to official risk advice is required, policymakers should carefully consider issues around these three factors.

Leveraging Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability Data to Assess Flood Risk to Indigenous Communities in Canada

This study integrates novel data on 100-year flood hazard extents, exposure of residential properties, and place-based social vulnerability to comprehensively assess and compare flood risk between Indigenous communities living on 985 reserve lands and other Canadian communities across 3701 census subdivisions. National-scale exposure of residential properties to fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flooding was estimated at the 100-year return period. A social vulnerability index (SVI) was developed and included 49 variables from the national census that represent demographic, social, economic, cultural, and infrastructure/community indicators of vulnerability. Geographic information system-based bivariate choropleth mapping of the composite SVI scores and of flood exposure of residential properties and population was completed to assess the spatial variation of flood risk. We found that about 81% of the 985 Indigenous land reserves had some flood exposure that impacted either population or residential properties. Our analysis indicates that residential property-level flood exposure is similar between non-Indigenous and Indigenous communities, but socioeconomic vulnerability is higher on reserve lands, which confirms that the overall risk of Indigenous communities is higher. Findings suggest the need for more local verification of flood risk in Indigenous communities to address uncertainty in national scale analysis.

What We Measure Matters: The Case of the Missing Development Data in Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Monitoring

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015−2030’s (SFDRR) framing moved away from disaster risk as a natural phenomenon to the examination of the inequality and injustice at the root of human vulnerability to hazards and disasters. Yet, its achievements have not seriously challenged the long-established capitalist systems of oppression that hinder the development leading to disaster risk creation. This article is an exploratory mapping exercise of and a collective reflection on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and SFDRR indicators—and their use in measuring progress towards disaster risk reduction (DRR). We highlight that despite the rhetoric of vulnerability, the measurement of progress towards DRR remains event/hazard-centric. We argue that the measurement of disaster risk could be greatly enhanced by the integration of development data in future iterations of global DRR frameworks for action.

On Evidence-Based Practice in Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster science and scholarship are forever expanding and there are increasing calls to base disaster risk reduction policies on the evidence produced by such work. Using examples and argument, this opinion piece examines the nature of evidence. It defines evidence-based practice and considers how it has developed and become important to disaster risk reduction. A definition of what constitutes evidence is difficult to achieve but it must be made in relation to whether the data and information collected can usefully be interpreted and employed to change things for the better. Case histories from past and present centuries show that evidence can sometimes be argued over endlessly. In other cases it is roundly ignored. In yet other instances, false conclusions derived from evidence can become evidence in their own right. Nevertheless, there are situations in disaster risk reduction in which evidence is sorely needed but is clearly lacking. The effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures is one such area. In conclusion, evidence is valuable, above all if there is willingness to use it to support policy formulation, especially in a simple, transparent manner. Subjective interpretation can never be entirely removed from the use of evidence, and evidence alone will not stimulate the policy formulators to improve their decision making.