scholarly journals Are current tsunami evacuation approaches safe enough?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
Flavia De Luca ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simplified Approach ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Evacuation Plan ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Destination Point

AbstractDeveloping an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.

scholarly journals Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Seaside, Oregon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenqiang Wang ◽  
Gaofeng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Evacuation Route

AbstractTypically, tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route. However, tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation, and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively. This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk. An agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation, which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk. The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route. The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode (for example, on foot or by car) and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated. The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach. The proposed approach is applied to the risk-informed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon. The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area. The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.

Simulation based optimal evacuation plan in vertical ship lift: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 1757-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Ping Wang ◽  
Mei-Ru Wang ◽  
Jian-Lan Zhou ◽  
Qing-Jun Zuo ◽  
Xun-Xian Shi
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Fire Evacuation ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Evacuation Model ◽  
Evacuation Plan

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop optimal evacuation plan to provide valuable theoretical and practical insight in the fire evacuation work of similar structures, by proposing a systematic simulation-based guided-evacuation agent-based model (GAM) and a three-stage mathematical evacuation model to investigate how to simulate, assess and improve the performance efficiency of the evacuation plan. Design/methodology/approach The authors first present the self-evacuation and guided-evacuation models to determine the optimal evacuation plan in ship chamber. Three key performance indicators are put forward to quantitatively assess the evacuation performance within the two fire scenarios. The evacuation model in tower is built to obtain the dividing points of the three different fire evacuation plans. Findings The study shows that the optimal evacuation plan determined by the GAM considering social relationships effectively relieves the congestion or collision of evacuees and improves the evacuation uniformity. The optimal evacuation plan not only solves the crush caused by congestion or collision of evacuees but also can greatly shorten the evacuation time for passenger ship fire. Originality/value This study establishes the GAM considering the interactive evacuee characteristics and the proportion of evacuees guided by the crew members to make the optimal evacuation plan more time-efficient. The self-evacuation process is simulated to assess the performance of the guided-evacuation strategies, which are used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the optimal evacuation plan in this research.

scholarly journals Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1735-1743 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sahal ◽  
F. Leone ◽  
M. Péroche
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The North ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
French Riviera

Abstract. Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera) in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes–Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based) and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based) to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

Tsunami Safe Town Planning with Evacuation Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (sp) ◽  
pp. 719-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiyuki Yoshida ◽  
◽  
Takeshi Kimura ◽  
Yoshikazu Minegishi ◽  
Tomonori Sano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Time Required

Tsunami evacuation plans have been deliberately developed by local governments in coastal areas in Japan under guidance from the national government since before the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. These plans, however, do not mention the time required for all local residents to evacuate to evacuation areas. This paper reports a procedure to design an effective tsunami safe town planning using multi-agent simulator (MAS) which identify a degree of evacuation risk in objective area. A case study is applied to one of the worst hit town of tsunami, in which additional facilities such as evacuation areas, safe buildings, and evacuation routes are proposed as well.

scholarly journals Improving the Evacuation Plan of Coastal Communities using Tsunami Evacuation Simulations: Case Study from Tagajyo, Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-35
Author(s):  
Takabatake Tomoyuki ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Urban Landscape ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Coastal Resilience ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Evacuation Plan

An evacuation simulation is a helpful tool to evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures. To showcase its effectiveness and importance, the present study applied the authors’ agent-based tsunami evacuation simulation model to investigate the effectiveness of tsunami countermeasures (i.e., early evacuation, restricting car usage, and combination of these two measures) in an area that was affected by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami (namely that of Tagajyo, Japan). As a result, it was found that restricting residents’ car usage would be a more effective countermeasure compared with simply encouraging people to immediately start evacuation after feeling the earthquake, which was found to be somewhat ineffective. However, if early evacuation were combined with restricted car use, the risk of residents being hit by a devastating tsunami would be significantly lower. The scenario results, therefore, highlighted the importance of tsunami evacuation simulations in formulating effective evacuation and reconstruction plans for coastal communities. Given the estimated return periods of a devastating tsunami, it is natural to assume that the tsunami-affected areas will gradually change; therefore, to ensure continued community resilience, it is imperative that simulation results be updated according to changes made in the urban landscape of the target city. Keywords: agent-based approach; tsunamis; evacuation; coastal resilience; reconstruction plan.

scholarly journals Risk Management and Technology: Case Studies of Tsunami Evacuation Drills in Japan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingying Sun ◽  
Katsuya Yamori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Semistructured Interview ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Single Person ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Evacuation Drills ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Kochi Prefecture

Evacuation drills have been developed as part of many risk management programs. However, very few studies have paid attention to the process of evacuation drills. This study employs action research to examine a tsunami risk management strategy called the single-person drill, and applies new technologies in presenting related outcomes presented as multiscreen movies. The drill targets vulnerable people (i.e., older adults), during which a single evacuee moves to a shelter with the aid of a Global Positioning System (GPS) device. Evacuation routes, destination, and duration were used as parameters in an agent-based evacuation simulation shown on movies. The drill has been conducted 58 times in a coastal community (Okitsu, Kochi Prefecture), and 59 multiscreen movies were produced. An analysis of the effectiveness of the drill and related movies was done by collecting both quantitative and qualitative data. Results showed that, with a total of 163 respondents of a semistructured interview, 70.0% of residents were familiar with the drill, and 22.0% wanted to try it. The drill helped elderly people to improve self-efficacy in tsunami risk management, and generated two-way risk communication between experts and participants. This paper contributes new insights into understanding the importance of technology in tsunami risk management.

Mathematical Knowledge and the Interplay of Practices

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Ferreirós
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Knowledge ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Philosophy Of Mathematics ◽  
Advanced Mathematics ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Epistemology Of Mathematics ◽  
Actual Experience ◽  
Elementary Math ◽  
Mathematical Tradition

This book presents a new approach to the epistemology of mathematics by viewing mathematics as a human activity whose knowledge is intimately linked with practice. Charting an exciting new direction in the philosophy of mathematics, the book uses the crucial idea of a continuum to provide an account of the development of mathematical knowledge that reflects the actual experience of doing math and makes sense of the perceived objectivity of mathematical results. Describing a historically oriented, agent-based philosophy of mathematics, the book shows how the mathematical tradition evolved from Euclidean geometry to the real numbers and set-theoretic structures. It argues for the need to take into account a whole web of mathematical and other practices that are learned and linked by agents, and whose interplay acts as a constraint. It demonstrates how advanced mathematics, far from being a priori, is based on hypotheses, in contrast to elementary math, which has strong cognitive and practical roots and therefore enjoys certainty. Offering a wealth of philosophical and historical insights, the book challenges us to rethink some of our most basic assumptions about mathematics, its objectivity, and its relationship to culture and science.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

Agent-based approach for crowded pedestrian evacuation simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianye Ben ◽  
Xifa Huang ◽  
Zhaoyi Zhuang ◽  
Rui Yan ◽  
Sen Xu
Keyword(s):  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation

Simulation Model of Crowd Evacuation Navigation in a Multi-Obstacle Environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 036119812097126
Author(s):  
Zhongrui Ni ◽  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Tingting Liu ◽  
Yanjie Chai ◽  
Cuijuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Control Algorithms ◽  
Prototype System ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Crowd Management ◽  
Navigation Simulation ◽  
Local Navigation ◽  
Crowd Evacuation

The simulation of a crowd evacuating public buildings can be an important reference in planning the layout of buildings and formulating evacuation strategies. This paper proposes an agent-based crowd model; a crowd evacuation navigation simulation model is proposed for the multi-obstacle environment. We introduce the concept of navigation factor to describe the proximity of the navigation point to the exit. An algorithm for creating navigation points in multi-obstacle environment is proposed along with the global navigation and local navigation control algorithms of the crowd. We construct a crowd evacuation simulation prototype system with different simulation scenes using the scene editor. We conduct the crowd evacuation simulation experiment in the multi-obstacle scene, recording and analyzing the relevant experimental data. The simulation prototype system can be used to derive the evacuation time of the crowd and analyze the evacuation behavior of the crowd. It is expected to provide a visual deduction method for crowd management in an evacuation emergency.

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