scholarly journals Increased risk of death in COVID-19 hospital admissions during the second wave as compared to the first epidemic wave: a prospective, single-centre cohort study in London, UK

Infection ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Cusinato ◽  
Jessica Gates ◽  
Danyal Jajbhay ◽  
Timothy Planche ◽  
Yee Ean Ong

Abstract Background The second coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic wave in the UK progressed aggressively and was characterised by the emergence and circulation of variant of concern alpha (VOC 202012/01). The impact of this variant on in-hospital COVID-19-specific mortality has not been widely studied. We aimed to compare mortality, clinical characteristics, and management of COVID-19 patients across epidemic waves to better understand the progression of the epidemic at a hospital level and support resource planning. Methods We conducted an analytical, dynamic cohort study in a large hospital in South London. We included all adults (≥ 18 years) with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who required hospital admission to COVID-19-specific wards between January 2020 and March 2021 (n = 2701). Outcome was COVID-19-specific in-hospital mortality ascertained through Medical Certificate Cause of Death. Results In the second wave, the number of COVID-19 admissions doubled, and the crude mortality rate dropped 25% (1.66 versus 2.23 per 100 person-days in second and first wave, respectively). After accounting for age, sex, dexamethasone, oxygen requirements, symptoms at admission and Charlson Comorbidity Index, mortality hazard ratio associated with COVID-19 admissions was 1.62 (95% CI 1.26, 2.08) times higher in the second wave. Conclusions Although crude mortality rates dropped during the second wave, the multivariable analysis suggests a higher underlying risk of death for COVID-19 admissions in the second wave. These findings are ecologically correlated with an increased circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1 (alpha). Availability of improved management, particularly dexamethasone, was important in reducing risk of death.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Cusinato ◽  
Jessica Gates ◽  
Danyal Jajbhay ◽  
Tim Planche ◽  
Yee-Ean Ong

Objective: To assess whether mortality of patients admitted for covid-19 treatment was different in the second UK epidemic wave of covid-19 compared to the first wave accounting for improvements in the standard of care available and differences in the distribution of risk factors between the two waves. Design: Single-centre, analytical, dynamic cohort study. Participants: 2,701 adults (≥18 years) with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and/or clinico-radiological diagnosis of covid-19, who required hospital admission to covid-19 specific wards, between January 2020 and March 2021. There were 884 covid-19 admissions during the first wave (before 30 Jun 2020) and 1,817 during the second wave. Outcome measures: in-hospital covid-19 associated mortality, ascertained from clinical records and Medical Certificate Cause of Death. Results: The crude mortality rate was 25% lower during the second wave (2.23 and 1.66 deaths per 100 person-days in first and second wave respectively). However, after accounting for age, sex, dexamethasone, oxygen requirements, symptoms at admission and Charlson Comorbidity Index, mortality hazard ratio associated with covid-19 hospital admissions was 1.62 (95% confidence interval 1.26, 2.08) times higher in the second wave compared to the first. Conclusions: Analysis of covid-19 admissions recorded in St. Georges Hospital, shows a larger second epidemic wave, with a lower crude mortality in hospital admissions. Nevertheless, after accounting for other factors underlying risk of death for covid-19 admissions was higher in the second wave. These findings are temporally and ecologically correlated with an increased circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1 (alpha).


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Adiamah ◽  
Lu Ban ◽  
Joe West ◽  
David J Humes

SUMMARY To define the incidence of postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) and effects of chemotherapy in a population undergoing surgery for esophagogastric cancer. This population-based cohort study used linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care data from England to identify subjects undergoing esophageal or gastric cancer surgery between 1997 and 2014. Exposures included age, comorbidity, smoking, body mass index, and chemotherapy. Crude rates and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for rate of first postoperative VTE using Cox regression models. The cumulative incidence of VTE at 1 and 6 months was estimated accounting for the competing risk of death from any cause. Of the 2,452 patients identified, 1,012 underwent gastrectomy (41.3%) and 1,440 esophagectomy (58.7%). Risk of VTE was highest in the first month, with absolute VTE rates of 114 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 59.32–219.10) following gastrectomy and 172.73 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 111.44–267.74) following esophagectomy. Neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a six-fold increased risk of VTE following gastrectomy, HR 6.19 (95% CI 2.49–15.38). Cumulative incidence estimates of VTE at 6 months following gastrectomy in patients receiving no chemotherapy was 1.90% and esophagectomy 2.21%. However, in those receiving both neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy, cumulative incidence following gastrectomy was 10.47% and esophagectomy, 3.9%. VTE rates are especially high in the first month following surgery for esophageal and gastric cancer. The cumulative incidence of VTE at 6 months is highest in patients treated with chemotherapy. In this category of patients, targeted VTE prophylaxis may prove beneficial during chemotherapy treatment.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (34_suppl) ◽  
pp. 217-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Anna Wolfson ◽  
Can-Lan Sun ◽  
Heeyoung Kim ◽  
Tongjun Kang ◽  
Smita Bhatia

217 Background: AYAs (15-39y at diagnosis) with cancer have not seen the survival improvement evidenced by younger and older age groups with similar diagnoses, leaving an AYA Gap. While treatment on pediatric protocols is associated with superior survival in 15-21y, impact of site of care on survival for vulnerable AYA subpopulations (race/ethnicity) between 22-39y at diagnosis remains unstudied. Methods: Utilizing a cohort of 10,602 AYAs newly diagnosed between 22-39y with lymphoma, leukemia, brain tumors, melanoma, thyroid and GU cancers, and reported to the Los Angeles County cancer registry between 1998 and 2008, we aimed to determine the impact of receiving care at NCI Comprehensive Cancer Centers (NCICCC) on overall survival for AYAs, and disparities in survival by race/ethnicity. We further aimed to understand the role of SES and insurance status in accessing care at NCICCC. Multivariable analyses included race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, SES, insurance status, primary cancer diagnosis and diagnosis year in the model. Results: A total of 904 (9%) patients received treatment at the 3 NCICCC (City of Hope, Jonsson Cancer Center, and Norris Cancer Center) in LA County. Ten-year overall survival (10y OS) was significantly worse for patients treated at non-NCICCC (81%) when compared with those treated at NCICCC (83%, p=0.02). Also, 10y OS was worse for African Americans (AA) (68%) vs. non-Hispanic whites (86%, p<0.0001). Multivariable analysis adjusting for SES, insurance status, diagnosis and diagnosis year revealed that AA (HR=1.5, p=0.0001) were at an increased risk of death. Among patients treated at NCICCC, the difference in risk of death due to race (HR=0.9, p=0.84) was abrogated. However, among patients treated at non-NCICCC, these differences in outcome persisted (HR=1.48, p<0.0001). Independent of SES, insurance and tumor factors, AA (OR=0.44, p<0.001) were less likely to use NCICCC. Conclusions: Population-based data reveal that receipt of care at an NCICCC abrogates the inferior outcome observed among AA with cancer. AA are less likely to use NCICCC for treatment. Barriers to accessing care at NCICCC are currently being explored.


BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harriet Forbes ◽  
Caroline E Morton ◽  
Seb Bacon ◽  
Helen I McDonald ◽  
Caroline Minassian ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective To investigate whether risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) differed between adults living with and without children during the first two waves of the UK pandemic. Design Population based cohort study, on behalf of NHS England. Setting Primary care data and pseudonymously linked hospital and intensive care admissions and death records from England, during wave 1 (1 February to 31 August 2020) and wave 2 (1 September to 18 December 2020). Participants Two cohorts of adults (18 years and over) registered at a general practice on 1 February 2020 and 1 September 2020. Main outcome measures Adjusted hazard ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related admission to hospital or intensive care, or death from covid-19, by presence of children in the household. Results Among 9 334 392 adults aged 65 years and under, during wave 1, living with children was not associated with materially increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related hospital or intensive care admission, or death from covid-19. In wave 2, among adults aged 65 years and under, living with children of any age was associated with an increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection (hazard ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.08) for living with children aged 0-11 years; 1.22 (1.20 to 1.24) for living with children aged 12-18 years) and covid-19 related hospital admission (1.18 (1.06 to 1.31) for living with children aged 0-11; 1.26 (1.12 to 1.40) for living with children aged 12-18). Living with children aged 0-11 was associated with reduced risk of death from both covid-19 and non-covid-19 causes in both waves; living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-covid-19 causes. For adults 65 years and under during wave 2, living with children aged 0-11 years was associated with an increased absolute risk of having SARS-CoV-2 infection recorded of 40-60 per 10 000 people, from 810 to between 850 and 870, and an increase in the number of hospital admissions of 1-5 per 10 000 people, from 160 to between 161 and 165. Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with an increase of 160-190 per 10 000 in the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and an increase of 2-6 per 10 000 in the number of hospital admissions. Conclusions In contrast to wave 1, evidence existed of increased risk of reported SARS-CoV-2 infection and covid-19 outcomes among adults living with children during wave 2. However, this did not translate into a materially increased risk of covid-19 mortality, and absolute increases in risk were small.


2021 ◽  
Vol 09 (09) ◽  
pp. E1427-E1434
Author(s):  
Roshan Razik ◽  
Paul D. James ◽  
Rishad Khan ◽  
Courtney Maxwell ◽  
Yibing Ruan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and study aim Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) enables diagnostic evaluation and therapeutic interventions but is associated with adverse events. We conducted a population-based cohort study to determine the risk of adverse events for upper and lower EUS with and without fine-needle aspiration (FNA). Patients and methods All adults who underwent EUS and resided in Calgary in 2007–2013 were included. Endoscopy and provincial databases were used to identify EUS procedures, unplanned emergency department visits, and hospital admissions within 30 days of the procedures, which were then characterized through formal chart review. Adverse events were defined a priori and classified as definitely, possibly, or not related to EUS. The primary outcome was 30-day risk of adverse events classified as definitely or possibly related to EUS. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted with risk factors known to be associated with EUS adverse events. Results 2895 patients underwent 3552 EUS procedures: 3034 (85 %) upper EUS, of which 710 (23 %) included FNA, and 518 (15 %) lower EUS, of which 23 (4 %) involved FNA. Overall, 69 procedures (2 %) involved an adverse event that was either definitely or possibly related to EUS, with 33 (1 %) requiring hospitalization. None of the adverse events required intensive care or resulted in death. On multivariable analysis, only FNA was associated with increased risk of adverse events (odds ratio 6.43, 95 % confidence interval 3.92–10.55; P < 0.001). Conclusion Upper and lower EUS were generally safe but FNA substantially increased the risk of adverse events. EUS-related complications requiring hospitalization were rare.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibongile Walaza ◽  
Stefano Tempia ◽  
Halima Dawood ◽  
Ebrahim Variava ◽  
Nicole Wolter ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Data on the prevalence and impact of influenza–tuberculosis coinfection on clinical outcomes from high–HIV and –tuberculosis burden settings are limited. We explored the impact of influenza and tuberculosis coinfection on mortality among hospitalized adults with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). Methods We enrolled patients aged ≥15 years admitted with physician-diagnosed LRTI or suspected tuberculosis at 2 hospitals in South Africa from 2010 to 2016. Combined nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and 8 other respiratory viruses. Tuberculosis testing of sputum included smear microscopy, culture, and/or Xpert MTB/Rif. Results Among 6228 enrolled individuals, 4253 (68%) were tested for both influenza and tuberculosis. Of these, the detection rate was 6% (239/4253) for influenza, 26% (1092/4253) for tuberculosis, and 77% (3113/4053) for HIV. One percent (42/4253) tested positive for both influenza and tuberculosis. On multivariable analysis, among tuberculosis-positive patients, factors independently associated with death were age group ≥65 years compared with 15–24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–11.0) and influenza coinfection (aOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.02–5.2). Among influenza-positive patients, laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of death (aOR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.5–13.3). Coinfection with other respiratory viruses was not associated with increased mortality in patients positive for tuberculosis (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.4–1.1) or influenza (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.4–5.6). Conclusions Tuberculosis coinfection is associated with increased mortality in individuals with influenza, and influenza coinfection is associated with increased mortality in individuals with tuberculosis. These data may inform prioritization of influenza vaccines or antivirals for tuberculosis patients and inform tuberculosis testing guidelines for patients with influenza.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Jane Lyons ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ashley Akbari ◽  
Mike Gravenor ◽  
...  

Abstract Background mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim to analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4 years. Study Design and Setting we used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods we calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted HRs for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1.72 (1.55, 1.90) compared with 2016. Compared with the general population in 2016–2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2.15 (2.11, 2.20) in 2016–2019 to 2.94 (2.81, 3.08) in 2020. Conclusions the survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 343-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
William C. Huang ◽  
Laura C. Pinheiro ◽  
Paul Russo ◽  
William Thomas Lowrance ◽  
Elena B. Elkin

343 Background: Small renal masses (SRM) are comprised of a heterogeneous group of tumors with some having malignant potential. Although surgery is the standard treatment for SRMs, emerging data suggests that surgery in the elderly or morbidly ill patients may be unnecessary and may adversely impact non-oncologic outcomes. We analyzed a population-based cohort of patients to identify predictors of surveillance and assess the impact of surveillance on overall survival, kidney cancer-specific survival and cardiovascular (CV) events, compared with surgery. Methods: From surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) cancer registry data linked with Medicare claims, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients 66 years of age or older who received surgery or surveillance for SRM (< 4 cm) diagnosed between 2000 to 2007. Propensity score methods were used to control for potential confounders in multivariable analysis. Results: Of 8,317 patients, 5,706 (70%) underwent surgery and 2,611 (31%) underwent surveillance. The use of surveillance increased from 25% in 2000 to 37% in 2007 (p < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 58 months, 2,053 (25%) patients had at least one CV event and 2,078 (25%) patients died, including 277 (3%) who died of kidney cancer. Compared with surgery, surveillance was associated with a significantly lower risk of death from any cause (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; CI, 0.75-0.94) and of suffering a CV event (HR, 0.79; CI 0.70-0.89), controlling for patient and disease characteristics. Kidney cancer-specific survival did not differ by treatment approach (HR, 0.89; CI, 0.66-1.21). Conclusions: There is increasing utilization of surveillance as an initial treatment strategy for patients with SRMs. For older patients with SRM, surveillance does not appear to adversely affect kidney cancer-specific survival, while surgery may be associated with CV complications and an increased risk of death from any cause. Surveillance should be considered an option for patients with SRM who are not otherwise acceptable candidates for surgical treatment.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Jane Lyons ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ashley Akbari ◽  
Mike Gravenor ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackgroundMortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages, and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to infectious diseases.AimTo analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4-years.Study Design and SettingWe used anonymised Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and administrative data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020.MethodsWe calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted hazard ratios for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions.ResultsSurvival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1·72 (1·55, 1·90) compared to 2016. Compared to the general population in 2016-2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2·15 (2·11,2·20) in 2016-2019 to 2·94 (2·81,3·08) in 2020.ConclusionsThe survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.


2011 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent G. Glance ◽  
Andrew W. Dick ◽  
Dana B. Mukamel ◽  
Fergal J. Fleming ◽  
Raymond A. Zollo ◽  
...  

Background The impact of intraoperative erythrocyte transfusion on outcomes of anemic patients undergoing noncardiac surgery has not been well characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the association between blood transfusion and mortality and morbidity in patients with severe anemia (hematocrit less than 30%) who are exposed to one or two units of erythrocytes intraoperatively. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of the association of blood transfusion and 30-day mortality and 30-day morbidity in 10,100 patients undergoing general, vascular, or orthopedic surgery. We estimated separate multivariate logistic regression models for 30-day mortality and for 30-day complications. Results Intraoperative blood transfusion was associated with an increased risk of death (odds ratio [OR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.62). Patients receiving an intraoperative transfusion were more likely to have pulmonary, septic, wound, or thromboembolic complications, compared with patients not receiving an intraoperative transfusion. Compared with patients who were not transfused, patients receiving one or two units of erythrocytes were more likely to have pulmonary complications (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.48-2.09), sepsis (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.21-1.68), thromboembolic complications (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.32-2.38), and wound complications (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.47-2.37). Conclusions Intraoperative blood transfusion is associated with a higher risk of mortality and morbidity in surgical patients with severe anemia. It is unknown whether this association is due to the adverse effects of blood transfusion or is, instead, the result of increased blood loss in the patients receiving blood.


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