scholarly journals Phenotypic frailty and multimorbidity are independent 18-year mortality risk indicators in older men

Author(s):  
Timo E. Strandberg ◽  
Linda Lindström ◽  
Satu Jyväkorpi ◽  
Annele Urtamo ◽  
Kaisu H. Pitkälä ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Multimorbidity, prefrailty, and frailty are frequent in ageing populations, but their independent relationships to long-term prognosis in home-dwelling older people are not well recognised. Methods In the Helsinki Businessmen Study (HBS) men with high socioeconomic status (born 1919–1934, n = 3490) have been followed-up from midlife. In 2000, multimorbidity (≥ 2 conditions), phenotypic prefrailty and frailty were determined in 1365 home-dwelling men with median age of 73 years). Disability was assessed as a possible confounder. 18-year mortality follow-up was established from registers and Cox regression used for analyses. Results Of the men, 433 (31.7%) were nonfrail and without multimorbidity at baseline (reference group), 500 (36.6%) and 82 (6.0%) men had prefrailty or frailty, respectively, without multimorbidity, 84 (6.2%) men had multimorbidity only, and 201 (14.7%) and 65 (4.8%) men had prefrailty or frailty together with multimorbidity. Only 30 (2.2%) and 86 (6.3%) showed signs of ADL or mobility disability. In the fully adjusted analyses (including ADL disability, mental and cognitive status) of 18-year mortality, frailty without multimorbidity (hazard ratio 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.13–2.31) was associated with similar mortality risk than multimorbidity without frailty (1.55, 1.17–2.06). The presence of both frailty and multimorbidity indicated a strong mortality risk (2.93, 2.10–4.07). Conclusion Although multimorbidity is generally considered a substantial health problem, our long-term observational study emphasises that phenotypic frailty alone, independently of disability, may be associated with a similar risk, and a combination of multimorbidity and frailty is an especially strong predictor of mortality.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Kawahara ◽  
Ichiro Mizushima ◽  
Shunsuke Tsuge ◽  
Seung Shin ◽  
Takahiro Yoshinobu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Few observations on the long-term prognosis have been conducted in immunoglobulin G4-related disease (IgG4-RD) patients with various organ involvement, not limited to autoimmune pancreatitis. Especially, mortality and its related factors in patients with IgG4-RD with various organ involvement are not well known. This study aimed to clarify mortality trends and its related factors in IgG4-RD with various organ involvement.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with IgG4-RD at a single center in Japan. We calculated the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) using national Japan mortality statistics and investigated the cause of death. We performed Cox regression analyses to assess mortality-related factors.Results: A total of 179 patients with IgG4-RD were included and the median follow-up from diagnosis was 47 months (IQR 19-96). Ten patients (5.6%) in our cohort died during the follow-up period. The crude mortality rate was 11.1 per 1,000 person-years. According to national Japan mortality statistics, 11.6 age- and sex-matched deaths would have been expected to occur within the follow-up period, resulting in an SMR of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-1.59). Univariate Cox regression analyses indicated that the number of affected organs at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.02-2.05), eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2 at diagnosis (vs. ≥45, HR 8.48, 95% CI 2.42-29.79), and the presence of malignancy during the clinical course (HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.10-14.02) had a significant impact on the time to death.Conclusions: Our findings suggested that IgG4-RD does not significantly affect long-term patient survival. On the other hand, multi-organ involvement and renal dysfunction as well as malignancy might be associated with higher mortality trends in IgG4-RD. Early detection and appropriate management of risk factors may improve the long-term prognosis of IgG4-RD.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C Ozturk ◽  
U M Becher ◽  
U M Becher ◽  
A Kalkan ◽  
A Kalkan ◽  
...  

Abstract EuroSCORE and STS-Score are used to assess surgical risk in patients with valvular heart diseases. The MIDA- Score has been recently published as a representative predictor for short- and long-term prognosis in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR). The adequate assessment of long-term prognosis in patients with functional MR is scarce. We aim to adapt this classical score system for patients with FMR. We retrospectively included 105 patients with FMR who underwent transcatheter mitral regurgitation therapy (TMVR) between January 2014 and August 2016 in our center. Due to the different underlying pathomechanisms of FMR, annular dilatation and impaired left ventricle function, and more elderly patient population we adapted some cut-off values to FMR patients (Age &gt; 65 to Age &gt; 75; LV-EF ≤ 60% to LV-EF ≤ 45%; sPAP≥50mmHg to sPAP≥45mmHg). Moreover, according to Cox proportional hazard analysis of our patient collective we re-calculated the weights of the risk factors: Age 2 points, Symptoms 1 point, atrial fibrillation 2 points, left atrial diameter 1 point, right ventricle systolic pressure 2 points, left ventricle end-systolic diameter 2 points, left ventricle ejection fraction 2 points. We defined three risk groups according to total points from the risk factors; Grade 1 (0-4 points): low risk, Grade 2 (5-9 points): moderate risk, Grade 3 (10-12 points): high risk. We retrospectively included 105 patients (76.7 ± 8.8 years, 50,6% female) with symptomatic (functional NYHA class &gt; II ) moderate-to-severe FMR (PISA: 0.7 ± 0.4cm, VC width: 0.8 ± 0.3cm, EROA: 0.22cm2, RegVol: 38.1 ± 19.2ml) at surgical high risk (EuroSCORE II: 5.4 ± 3.8%, STS-Score: 4.7 ± 2.8%). We found all-cause mortality 7% at one-year follow-up. 34.1% of our collective were hospitalized. The classical MIDA Score was not significantly correlated with mortality and rehospitalization in patients with FMR at follow-up (p = 0.5); however, the modified MIDA score was found to be a strong predictor for mortality and rehospitalization in patients with FMR (AUC: 0.89). According to multivariate analysis, the modified MIDA score was found to be superior compared to the other conventional score systems (The modified MIDA-Score HR: 4.1, p = 0.021; EuroSCORE II; HR: 1.2, p = 0.004, STS-Score; HR: 1.7, p = 0.005). We performed Cox proportional hazard analysis to assess the weighting factor of the predictors. As a result of this, we found age (HR: 2,95, p = 0.03) as the most reliable parameter to predict the combined outcome. The 12,5% of grade 1, 27% grade 2, 57% grade 3 patients showed combined endpoint. According to regression analysis, the modified score &gt;9 points found to be a strong predictor for high mortality and rehospitalization (OR: 3.35, p = 0.011). We found the modified MIDA Score sufficient and extensive to assess outcomes in patients with FMR. The modified MIDA Score offers a sufficient promising tool to predict individual prognosis in patients with FMR.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Milasinovic ◽  
D.J Mladenovic ◽  
D Jelic ◽  
Z Mehmedbegovic ◽  
M Radomirovic ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Previous studies showed increased mortality rates in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and a chronic total occlusion (CTO) in a non-infarct-related artery, but long-term data are scarce. Purpose Our aim was to assess all-cause mortality during 5 years follow-up in patients with a remaining nonculprit CTO after being treated with primary PCI. Methods The study included 9504 patients admitted for primary PCI during 2009–2019, with available baseline angiography, from an electronic, prospective registry of a high-volume catheterization laboratory. Kaplan Meier cumulative mortality curves for non-culprit CTO vs. no CTO were compared with the log-rank test, with landmarks set at 30 days and then annually up to 5 years follow-up. Adjusted Cox regression models were constructed to assess 30-day and 5-year mortality risk of a non-culprit CTO. Median follow-up was 1507 days. Results Nonculprit CTO was present in 13.2% of patients (n=1253). Presence of a nonculprit CTO was associated with older age (64 vs. 61, p&lt;0.001), more frequent history of cardiovascular disease including prior MI (33% vs. 14%, p&lt;0.001), stroke (10.3% vs. 5.9%, p&lt;0.001) and CABG (10.5% vs. 1.5%, p&lt;0.001), higher rates of renal failure (10.7% vs. 4.8%, p&lt;0.001), as well as more often Killip class 2–4 on admission (29% vs. 16%, p&lt;0.001) and a lower ejection fraction (40% vs. 47%, p&lt;0.001). Crude mortality rates were significantly increased in patients with a nonculprit CTO vs. no CTO, at both 30 days (15.7% vs. 5.6%, p&lt;0.001) and 5 years (54.6% vs. 27.9%, p&lt;0.001). After adjusting for the observed baseline differences, nonculprit CTO was still associated with an elevated mortality risk at both 30-days (HR 1.5, CI95% 1.1–1.9, p=0.007) and 5 years (HR 1.6, CI95% 1.4–1.9, p&lt;0.001). Landmark analyses showed continuously increasing risk of mortality in the presence of a nonculprit CTO, as compared with primary PCI-treated patients with no CTO (30 days to 1 year 11.4% vs. 4.9%, p&lt;0.001; 1st to 2nd year of follow-up 6.3% vs. 3.4%, p&lt;0.001; 2nd to 3rd year 6.2% vs. 2.8%, p&lt;0.001; 3rd to 4th year 7.4% vs. 3.0%, p&lt;0.001; and 4th to 5th year 5.2% vs. 3.6%, p=0.1). Conclusions Presence of a nonculprit CTO is independently associated with 5-year mortality after primary PCI. Importantly, the mortality risk increases continuously with an average annual absolute difference of 3%, in patients with a nonculprit CTO vs. those with no CTO. Nonculprit CTO vs. no CTO Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-lei Chen ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Jia-yi Huang ◽  
Yu-ling Yu ◽  
Kenneth Lo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The optimal blood pressure (BP) level for diabetic patients remains controversial, and population-based evidence on BP management for individuals with normoglycemia and prediabetes is insufficient. We aimed to investigate the associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and all-cause mortality among US adults with different glucose metabolism.Methods We used data from the 1999–2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, n = 40,046) with comprehensive baseline examination and follow-up assessment. Restricted cubic spline was performed to examine dose-response relationship between continuous SBP and all-cause mortality. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality for SBP categories.Results Over 32,5450 person-years of follow-up (median 8.1 years), 4745 all-cause death (11.8%) were recorded, corresponding to an event rate of 14.58 per 1000 patient years. U-shaped associations between SBP and all-cause mortality were observed regardless of glucose status. The lowest mortality risk of optimal SBP (mmHg) by group was 115–120 (normoglycemia), 120–130 (prediabetes), and 125–135 (diabetes). Compared with the reference group, SBP < 100 mmHg was significantly associated with 49% (HR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.13–1.96), 57% (1.57, 1.07–2.3), and 59% (1.59, 1.12–2.25) higher mortality risk in normoglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes, respectively. The multivariable-adjusted HRs of all-cause mortality for SBP of 150–159 mmHg and ≥ 160 mmHg were 1.35 (1.08–1.70) and 1.61 (1.31–1.98), 1.44 (1.13–1.83) and 1.66 (1.33–2.08), and 1.29 (1.02–1.65) and 1.37 (1.09–1.72), respectively.Conclusions U-shaped relationships between SBP and all-cause mortality existed regardless of diabetes status. The optimal SBP range for the lowest mortality was gradually higher with worsening glucose status.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K Wita ◽  
K Wilkosz ◽  
M Wita ◽  
A Kulach ◽  
M Wybraniec ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Despite substantial progress in the medical and interventional treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), a long-term prognosis in MI survivors remains unsatisfactory. The Managed Care in Acute Myocardial Infarction (MC-AMI, KOS-zawal) is the first program of a comprehensive, supervised care for patients with AMI to improve long-term prognosis. It includes acute intervention, complex revascularization, cardiac rehabilitation (CR), outpatient follow-up, and prevention of SCD. Purpose To assess the effect of MC-AMI on major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in 12 months follow-up. Methods In this single-center, retrospective observational study we enrolled 1211 patients, out of which 719 consented for participation in MC-AMI and compared them to 1130 subjects in the control group. After propensity score matching two groups of 529 subjects each were compared. Cox regression was performed to assess the effect of MC-AMI on clinical endpoints. Results Primarily, MC-AMI has been proved to reduce MACCE rate by 40% in a 12-month observation. Participants of MC-AMI had a higher adherence to cardiac rehabilitation (98 vs. 14%) higher rate of scheduled revascularisation (coronary artery bypass grafting: 9.8% vs. 4.9%, p<0.001; elective percutaneous coronary intervention: 3.0% vs 2.1%, p<0.05) and ICD implantation (2.8% vs. 0.6%, p<0.05) compared to control. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed MC-AMI participation to be inversely associated with the occurrence MACCE at 12 months (HR=0.500, 95%Cl 0.349–0.718, p<0.001). Besides, older age, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, prior PAD, previous UA, and lower LVEF were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. 12-month FU - freedom from MACCE Conclusions MC-AMI is the first program of a comprehensive in-hospital and post-discharge care for AMI patients. MC-AMI improves prognosis by increasing the rate of patients undergoing CR, complete revascularization and ICD implantation, thus reducing MACCE rate by 40% in 12 months. Participation in MC-AMI is inversely related to mortality rate, recurrent MI and heart failure related hospitalization during 12 months.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquale Paolisso ◽  
Luca Bergamaschi ◽  
Pietro Rambaldi ◽  
Gianluca Gatta ◽  
Alberto Foà ◽  
...  

<b>OBJECTIVES</b>: To investigate admission hyperglycemia effects on the sympathetic system and long-term prognosis in Takotsubo syndrome (TTS). <p><b>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: </b>in TTS hyperglycemics (n=28) vs normoglycemics (n=48) serum norepinephrine and 123I-MIBG cardiac scintigraphy (123I-MIBGcS) were assessed. Heart failure (HF) occurrence and deaths events over 2-years were evaluated.</p> <p><b>RESULTS: </b>At hospitalization, hyperglycemics vs normoglycemics had higher levels of inflammatory markers, BNP and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF). Glucose values correlated with norepinephrine levels (R<sup>2</sup>=0.39, p=0.001). In 30 TTS patients, 123I-MIBGcS showed lower H/M<sub>late</sub> values<sub> </sub>in the acute phase (p<0.001) and at follow-up (p<0.001) in hyperglycemic patients. Hyperglycemics had a higher rate of HF events (p<0.001) and deaths (p<0.05) after 24-months. At multivariate Cox Regression analysis, hyperglycemia (p=0.008), TNF-α (p=0.001) and norepinephrine (p=0.035) were independent predictors of HF events.</p> <p><b>CONCLUSIONS: </b>TTS hyperglycemic patients exhibit a sympathetic overactivity with a hyperglycemia-mediated pro-inflammatory pathway which could cause a worse prognosis during follow-up.<b><br> </b></p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (9) ◽  
pp. 2654-2662 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Palella ◽  
C. Armon ◽  
J. S. Chmiel ◽  
J. T. Brooks ◽  
R. Hart ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives We sought to evaluate associations between CD4 at ART initiation (AI), achieving CD4 >750 cells/mm3 (CD4 >750), long-term immunological recovery and survival. Methods This was a prospective observational cohort study. We analysed data from ART-naive patients seen in 1996–2012 and followed ≥3 years after AI. We used Kaplan–Meier (KM) methods and log-rank tests to compare time to achieving CD4 >750 by CD4 at AI (CD4-AI); and Cox regression models and generalized estimating equations to identify factors associated with achieving CD4 >750 and mortality risk. Results Of 1327 patients, followed for a median of 7.9 years, >85% received ART for ≥75% of follow-up time; 64 died. KM estimates evaluating likelihood of CD4 >750 during 5 years of follow-up, stratified by CD4-AI <50, 50–199, 200–349, 350–499 and 500–750, were 20%, 25%, 56%, 80% and 87%, respectively (log-rank P < 0.001). In adjusted models, CD4-AI ≥200 (versus CD4-AI <200) was associated with achievement of CD4 >750 [adjusted HR (aHR) = 4.77]. Blacks were less likely than whites to achieve CD4 >750 (33% versus 49%, aHR = 0.77). Mortality rates decreased with increasing CD4-AI (P = 0.004 across CD4 strata for AIDS causes and P = 0.009 for non-AIDS death causes). Among decedents with CD4-AI ≥50, 56% of deaths were due to non-AIDS causes. Conclusions Higher CD4-AI resulted in greater long-term CD4 gains, likelihood of achieving CD4 >750, longer survival and decreased mortality regardless of cause. Over 80% of persons with CD4-AI ≥350 achieved CD4 >750 by 4 years while 75% of persons with CD4-AI <200 did not. These data confirm the hazards of delayed AI and support early AI.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Kawahara ◽  
Ichiro Mizushima ◽  
Shunsuke Tsuge ◽  
Seung Shin ◽  
Takahiro Yoshinobu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Few observations on the long-term prognosis have been conducted in immunoglobulin G4-related disease (IgG4-RD) patients with various organ involvement, not limited to autoimmune pancreatitis. Especially, mortality and its related factors in patients with IgG4-RD with various organ involvement are not well known. This study aimed to clarify mortality trends and its related factors in IgG4-RD with various organ involvement.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with IgG4-RD at a single center in Japan. We calculated the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) using national Japan mortality statistics and investigated the cause of death. We performed Cox regression analyses to assess mortality-related factors.Results: A total of 179 patients with IgG4-RD were included and the median follow-up from diagnosis was 47 months (IQR 19-96). Ten patients (5.6%) in our cohort died during the follow-up period. The crude mortality rate was 11.1 per 1,000 person-years. According to national Japan mortality statistics, 11.6 age- and sex-matched deaths would have been expected to occur within the follow-up period, resulting in an SMR of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-1.59). Univariate Cox regression analyses indicated that the number of affected organs at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.02-2.05), eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2 at diagnosis (vs. ≥45, HR 8.48, 95% CI 2.42-29.79), and the presence of malignancy during the clinical course (HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.10-14.02) had a significant impact on the time to death.Conclusions: Our findings suggested that IgG4-RD does not significantly affect long-term patient survival. On the other hand, multi-organ involvement and renal dysfunction as well as malignancy might be associated with higher mortality trends in IgG4-RD. Early detection and appropriate management of risk factors may improve the long-term prognosis of IgG4-RD.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Helmersson-Karlqvist ◽  
Miklos Lipcsey ◽  
Johan Ärnlöv ◽  
Max Bell ◽  
Bo Ravn ◽  
...  

AbstractDecreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is linked to poor survival. The predictive value of creatinine estimated GFR (eGFR) and cystatin C eGFR in critically ill patients may differ substantially, but has been less studied. This study compares long-term mortality risk prediction by eGFR using a creatinine equation (CKD-EPI), a cystatin C equation (CAPA) and a combined creatinine/cystatin C equation (CKD-EPI), in 22,488 patients treated in intensive care at three University Hospitals in Sweden, between 2004 and 2015. Patients were analysed for both creatinine and cystatin C on the same blood sample tube at admission, using accredited laboratory methods. During follow-up (median 5.1 years) 8401 (37%) patients died. Reduced eGFR was significantly associated with death by all eGFR-equations in Cox regression models. However, patients reclassified to a lower GFR-category by using the cystatin C-based equation, as compared to the creatinine-based equation, had significantly higher mortality risk compared to the referent patients not reclassified. The cystatin C equation increased C-statistics for death prediction (p < 0.001 vs. creatinine, p = 0.013 vs. combined equation). In conclusion, this data favours the sole cystatin C equation rather than the creatinine or combined equations when estimating GFR for risk prediction purposes in critically ill patients.


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