scholarly journals Load Forecasting Based on LSTM Neural Network and Applicable to Loads of “Replacement of Coal with Electricity”

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zexi Chen ◽  
Delong Zhang ◽  
Haoran Jiang ◽  
Longze Wang ◽  
Yongcong Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Adequate Accuracy ◽  
Model Time Series ◽  
Power System Faults ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Electric Loads

AbstractWith the complete implementation of the “Replacement of Coal with Electricity” policy, electric loads borne by urban power systems have achieved explosive growth. The traditional load forecasting method based on “similar days” only applies to the power systems with stable load levels and fails to show adequate accuracy. Therefore, a novel load forecasting approach based on long short-term memory (LSTM) was proposed in this paper. The structure of LSTM and the procedure are introduced firstly. The following factors have been fully considered in this model: time-series characteristics of electric loads; weather, temperature, and wind force. In addition, an experimental verification was performed for “Replacement of Coal with Electricity” data. The accuracy of load forecasting was elevated from 83.2 to 95%. The results indicate that the model promptly and accurately reveals the load capacity of grid power systems in the real application, which has proved instrumental to early warning and emergency management of power system faults.

scholarly journals An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 4875
Author(s):  
Dengyong Zhang ◽  
Haixin Tong ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Lingyun Xiang ◽  
Xiangling Ding
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Temperature Factor ◽  
Memory Model ◽  
Electrical Load ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Electrical Load Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting is an important guarantee for the safety and efficiency of energy system operation. Temperature is also an important factor affecting the changes in electric load. However, in different cases, the impact of temperature on load forecasting will vary greatly, and sometimes even lead to the decrease of forecasting accuracy. This often brings great difficulties to researchers’ work. In order to make more scientific use of temperature factor for ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting, especially to avoid the negative influence of temperature on load forecasting, in this paper we propose an ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting method based on temperature factor weight and long short-term memory model. The proposed method evaluates the importance of the current prediction task’s temperature based on the change magnitude of the recent load and the correlation between temperature and load, and therefore the negative impacts of the temperature model can be avoided. The mean absolute percentage error of proposed method is decreased by 1.24%, 1.86%, and 6.21% compared with traditional long short-term memory model, back-propagation neural network, and gray model on average, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that this method has obvious advantages in prediction accuracy and generalization ability.

scholarly journals Fusion of Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Application in Load Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Gwo-Ching Liao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Load forecasting (LF) is essential in enabling modern power systems’ safety and economical transportation and energy management systems. The dynamic balance between power generation and load in the optimization of power systems is receiving increasing attention. The intellectual development of information in the power industry and the data acquisition system of the smart grid provides a vast data source for pessimistic load forecasting, and it is of great significance in mining the information behind power data. An accurate short-term load forecasting can guarantee a system’s safe and reliable operation, improve the utilization rate of power generation, and avoid the waste of power resources. In this paper, the load forecasting model by applying a fusion of Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (ILSTM-NN), and then establish short-term load forecasting using this novel model. Sparrow Search Algorithm is a novel swarm intelligence optimization algorithm that simulates sparrow foraging predatory behavior. It is used to optimize the parameters (such as weight, bias, etc.) of the ILSTM-NN. The results of the actual examples are used to prove the accuracy of load forecasting. It can improve (decrease) the MAPE by about 20% to 50% and RMSE by about 44.1% to 52.1%. Its ability to improve load forecasting error values is tremendous, so it is very suitable for promoting a domestic power system.

Peak Load Forecasting Using Long-Short Term Memory : Case Study of Jawa-Madura-Bali System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anindita Satria Surya ◽  
Musa Partahi Marbun ◽  
K.G.H. Mangunkusumo ◽  
Muhammad Ridwan
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

scholarly journals Deep Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory for Electric Power Load Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 6489
Author(s):  
Namrye Son ◽  
Seunghak Yang ◽  
Jeongseung Na
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Power Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Electric Power Load

Forecasting domestic and foreign power demand is crucial for planning the operation and expansion of facilities. Power demand patterns are very complex owing to energy market deregulation. Therefore, developing an appropriate power forecasting model for an electrical grid is challenging. In particular, when consumers use power irregularly, the utility cannot accurately predict short- and long-term power consumption. Utilities that experience short- and long-term power demands cannot operate power supplies reliably; in worst-case scenarios, blackouts occur. Therefore, the utility must predict the power demands by analyzing the customers’ power consumption patterns for power supply stabilization. For this, a medium- and long-term power forecasting is proposed. The electricity demand forecast was divided into medium-term and long-term load forecast for customers with different power consumption patterns. Among various deep learning methods, deep neural networks (DNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) were employed for the time series prediction. The DNN and LSTM performances were compared to verify the proposed model. The two models were tested, and the results were examined with the accuracies of the six most commonly used evaluation measures in the medium- and long-term electric power load forecasting. The DNN outperformed the LSTM, regardless of the customer’s power pattern.

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