Electrical load forecasting through long short term memory

For a power supplier, meeting demand-supply equilibrium is of utmost importance. Electrical energy must be generated according to demand, as a large amount of electrical energy cannot be stored. For the proper functioning of a power supply system, an adequate model for predicting load is a necessity. In the present world, in almost every industry, whether it be healthcare, agriculture, and consulting, growing digitization and automation is a prominent feature. As a result, large sets of data related to these industries are being generated, which when subjected to rigorous analysis, yield out-of-the-box methods to optimize the business and services offered. This paper aims to ascertain the viability of long short term memory (LSTM) neural networks, a recurrent neural network capable of handling both long-term and short-term dependencies of data sets, for predicting load that is to be met by a Dispatch Center located in a major city. The result shows appreciable accuracy in forecasting future demand.

ARIMA Models in Electrical Load Forecasting and Their Robustness to Noise

The paper addresses the problem of insufficient knowledge on the impact of noise on the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identification. The work offers a simulation-based solution to the analysis of the tolerance to noise of ARIMA models in electrical load forecasting. In the study, an idealized ARIMA model obtained from real load data of the Polish power system was disturbed by noise of different levels. The model was then re-identified, its parameters were estimated, and new forecasts were calculated. The experiment allowed us to evaluate the robustness of ARIMA models to noise in their ability to predict electrical load time series. It could be concluded that the reaction of the ARIMA model to random disturbances of the modeled time series was relatively weak. The limiting noise level at which the forecasting ability of the model collapsed was determined. The results highlight the key role of the data preprocessing stage in data mining and learning. They contribute to more accurate decision making in an uncertain environment, help to shape energy policy, and have implications for the sustainability and reliability of power systems.