Comparing interest-rate spreads and money growth as predictors of output growth: Granger causality in the sense Granger intended

1993 ◽  
Vol 45 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 247-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory D. Hess ◽  
Richard D. Porter
1993 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustine C. Arize

Using cointegration and multivariate causality approach, this paper examines the determinants of income velocity in the United Kingdom over the period, 1973Q1–1990Q2. The results suggest that changes in interest rate, interest rate volatility, real exchange rate and money growth volatility provide information that helps predict future movements in income velocity.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Daniel Sakyi

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana for the period 1980-2013. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to cointegration and the error correction model were used for the estimation. Findings The results indicate that exchange rate volatility, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and public sector borrowing from commercial banks, increase interest rate spreads in Ghana in both the long and short run. Institutional quality reduces interest rate spreads in the long run while lending interest rate volatility and monetary policy rate reduce interest rate spreads in the short run. Research limitations/implications The depreciation of the Ghana cedi must be controlled since its volatility increases spreads. There is a need for fiscal discipline since fiscal deficits increase interest rate spreads. Government must reduce its domestic borrowing because the associated crowding-out effect increases interest rate spreads. The central bank must improve its monitoring and regulation of the financial sector in order to reduce spreads. Originality/value The main novelty of the paper (compared to other studies on Ghana) lies on the one hand; analysing macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads and, on the other hand, controlling for the impact of institutional quality on interest rate spreads in Ghana.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-98
Author(s):  
Mehmed Ganić

This paper provides an empirical analysis of factors affecting Bank Interest Margins in eight countries of the South‑East European (SEE) region between 2000 and 2014. The purpose of this paper is to examine and investigate the main drivers of Bank Interest Rate Margins across selected countries throughout the SEE region. Also, the study explored the relationship between the dependent variable Interest Rate Spread (IRS – as a proxy variable for measuring variation in Bank Interest Rate Margins) and a set of selected banks’ specific variables in SEE by employing panel data estimation methodology. This research is based on aggregate data for the whole banking sector of each country. In line with some expectations, our findings confirm the importance of credit risk, bank concentration operative efficiency, and inflation expectations in determining Bank Interest Rate Margins. Interestingly, in contrast to the majority of recent empirical research, the study found an inverse relationship between the bank concentration variable and Bank Interest Rate Margins as well as between the operational efficiency variable and Bank Interest Rate Margins. Also, the study could not find statistically significant evidence that Bank Interest Rate Margins are determined by output growth, bank profitability (measured by ROA) or liquidity risk.


2000 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardino Adao ◽  
Jorge Barros Luis

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina ◽  
Jacek Kotlowski ◽  
Kamil Wierus

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno ◽  
Salvatore Nisticò

This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and “pseudo-safe” assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest rate spreads and can cause a deep recession-cum-deflation. Expanding the central bank’s balance sheet fills the shortage of safe assets and counteracts the recession. Lowering the interest rate on reserves insulates market interest rates from the liquidity shock and improves risk sharing between borrowers and savers. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52)


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