Business forecasting for management

1996 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-437
Author(s):  
Spyros Makridakis
Keyword(s):  
Business Forecasting

Searching for a Tide Table for Business:

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 139-174
Author(s):  
Laetitia Lenel
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Inside Information ◽  
Mechanical Working ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Business Forecasting ◽  
History Of ◽  
General Business

The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years after its establishment in 1919, the article explores the far-reaching changes in method and conviction from 1922 on. The members’ realization that the future evolved differently than predicted prompted them to give up their hope for mechanical means of forecasting and to revoke their calls for the employment of the mathematical theory of probability in economics. Instead, they established an extensive correspondence with economic and political decision-makers that allowed them to base their forecasts on “inside information.” Subsequently, the article traces European attempts to adopt the Harvard Index of General Business Conditions in the early 1920s. Impressed by the seemingly mechanical working of the Harvard index, European economists and statisticians sought to establish similar indices for their countries. However, numerous revisions of the Harvard index in the mid-1920s cast doubt on the universality of the index and the existence of stable patterns and led European researchers to pursue different paths of investigation. The article complicates the larger history of statistical inference in economics in two meaningful ways. First, it argues that statistical inference with probability was not the long-sought solution for the problem of objectivity but a long-contested, and repeatedly discarded, approach. Second, it shows that these contestations were often triggered by deviations between forecasts and the conditions actually observed and by this means argues for the importance of the historical context in the history of economics.

scholarly journals Keuse van 'n vooruitskattingstegniek

1984 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
S. C. Gous
Keyword(s):  
The Past ◽  
Business Forecasting ◽  
Correct Technique ◽  
Suitable Technique ◽  
Relevant Factors ◽  
Forecasting Techniques

Choice of a forecasting technique Business forecasting has developed rapidly over the past few years as a result of the increasing complexity of the environment of the firm. Some researchers assert that businesses apparently experience three problems with reference to forecasting: a preference for the application of certain techniques is built up so that more suitable techniques are not utilized; not all relevant factors are taken into consideration in the choice of the most suitable technique; and managers often do forecasting themselves even though they possess little knowledge thereof. To handle the increasing variety and complexity of managerial forecasting problems, many forecasting techniques have been developed in recent years. Each has its special use, and care must be taken to select the correct technique for a particular application. The manager as well as the forecaster has a role to play in technique selection and the better the manager understands the range of forecasting possibilities, the more likely it is that a company's forecasting efforts will bear fruit.

scholarly journals Ondernemingsvooruitskatting in die groot vervaardigingsondernemings in Suid-Afrika, 1978

1979 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 125-130
Author(s):  
Fanus C. Gous
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Limited Extent ◽  
The Past ◽  
Business Forecasting ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Suitable Technique ◽  
Relevant Factors

Business forecasting in the large manufacturing concerns in South Africa, 1978. Business forecasting has developed rapidly over the past few years as a result of the increasing complexity of the environment of the firm. Some overseas writers assert that the application thereof has developed more slowly than the theory connected to it: although businesses are aware of the necessity and existence of literature on the subject, it is only to a limited extent applied on an organized basis. Overseas businesses apparently experience three problems: a preference for the application of certain techniques is built up so that more suitable techniques are not utilized; not all relevant factors are taken into consideration in the choice of the most suitable technique; and managers often do forecasting themselves even though they possess little knowledge thereof. An empirical study has shown that similar problems are encountered by the relatively large manufacturing concerns in South Africa.Ondernemingsvooruitskatting het gedurende die afgelope jare, as gevolg van die toenemende kompleksiteit in die ondernemingsomgewing, vinnig ontwikkel. Sommige oorsese skrywers beweer dat die toepassing daarvan stadiger ontwikkel het as die teorie daaraan verbonde: ondernemings, alhoewel bewus van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan en ook van die bestaan van literatuur daaroor, pas dit in 'n beperkte mate op georganiseerde grondslag toe. Blykbaar ondervind oorsese ondernemings veral drie probleme: 'n voorkeur vir die toepassing van bepaalde tegnieke word opgebou sodat meer toepaslike tegnieke nie benut word nie; alle relevante faktore word nie in ag geneem by die keuse van die tegniek nie; en bestuurders doen dikwels self vooruitskatting alhoewel hulle oor weinig kennis daarvan beskik. 'n Empiriese studie het getoon dat soortgelyke probleme deur die relatief groot vervaardigingsondernemings in Suid-Afrika ondervind word.

4.4 A Policy for Encouraging the Effective Use of Computers in Animal Production Development

1981 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 137-140
Author(s):  
C. T. Whittemore
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Flat Rate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Business Forecasting ◽  
Development Workers ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
The Cost

In addition to data and record handling and the completion of complex and arduous mathematical calculations, the computer may serve a wide range of purposes for the agricultural industry; these include the provision of day-to-day management information, the mechanical enactment of management decisions, business forecasting, interpretation of real life and prediction of future response by use of simulation models, analysis of cost effectiveness of various tactics and stratagems, the transfer of information, scrutinization of existing knowledge and the formulation of experimental programmes. The computer is seen as a major linking medium between research, development and production practice; being both the preferred route for information flow and an ideal way of packaging dispersed pieces of knowledge into practical, usable, systems advice.The concern of practical producers is not with discrete little problems but with systems. To help, the extension worker must bring forward systems solutions. Often research and development workers try to get across to producers potential benefits in small bits (3 times daily milking gives a yield lift of 15%; flat rate feeding gives better margins over concentrates; high density diets improve feed efficiency), whereas producer benefits come from the cost effectiveness of whole integrated systems.

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