ІNFORMATION SUPPORT FOR TOURISM AND HOTEL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

The article substantiates the need to enhance the information support for tourism and hotel business which is currently associated with a range of information and methodological issues, such as the assessment of tourist flows; tourism and hotel market satisfaction, congruence between customer needs and supply in the tourist services market; assessing load infrastructure as well as anthropogenic effects on the environment; study on the state of industry development and measuring of its contribution into the total gross domestic product. The paper presents a research methodology to explore tourism and hotel business settings, in particular the regional tourist services market, based on the market environment evaluation, identification of factors affecting tourism actors’ performance efficiency and estimation of their impact on final economic outcomes. The above methodology involves a comprehensive approach to the application of theoretical and applied principles of sectoral and territorial analysis and aims at building the regional tourism policy key drivers. It is argued that in the context of new risks and challenges, modern Ukraine should pursue a robust constructive recreational and tourism policy. Depending on the level at which the policy is defined and implemented, this study makes out government policy, regional policy, and the policy of individual tourism and hotel businesses. As an effective solution, the findings suggest modeling a government recreational policy based on strategic planning which translates into a comprehensive document that includes analytical information and business forecasting, as well as an action plan including a set of activities and projects to be implemented by market participants in the tourism and hotel sector.

Searching for a Tide Table for Business:

The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years after its establishment in 1919, the article explores the far-reaching changes in method and conviction from 1922 on. The members’ realization that the future evolved differently than predicted prompted them to give up their hope for mechanical means of forecasting and to revoke their calls for the employment of the mathematical theory of probability in economics. Instead, they established an extensive correspondence with economic and political decision-makers that allowed them to base their forecasts on “inside information.” Subsequently, the article traces European attempts to adopt the Harvard Index of General Business Conditions in the early 1920s. Impressed by the seemingly mechanical working of the Harvard index, European economists and statisticians sought to establish similar indices for their countries. However, numerous revisions of the Harvard index in the mid-1920s cast doubt on the universality of the index and the existence of stable patterns and led European researchers to pursue different paths of investigation. The article complicates the larger history of statistical inference in economics in two meaningful ways. First, it argues that statistical inference with probability was not the long-sought solution for the problem of objectivity but a long-contested, and repeatedly discarded, approach. Second, it shows that these contestations were often triggered by deviations between forecasts and the conditions actually observed and by this means argues for the importance of the historical context in the history of economics.

Effective Role Of Forecasting And Decision Making In Organization Of Borno State

Forecasting is the Act of anticipating in advancement is likely to happen under a given sat to condition is very important not only to every business organisation but to virtually every significant management decision. The framework of this paper is focus on the nature of the forecasting and the role of the forecasting techniques, which include the qualitative and quantitative, the criteria for choosing forecasting technique and the failure of the business forecasting techniques. However, perfect forecasting is usually impossible because there are so many factor in the business environment that can not be fully predicted with certainty, therefore rather than search for the perfect forecasting, which is more important is to establish the practical of continual model or methodology but we should try to chose the best forecasting method in making decisions in an organisation.

The role of forecasting in the business management system

In the market relations of the current economy, when the necessary information about the demand for goods and services is completely unavailable, when it is impossible to predict not only the behavior of competitors but also partners, when it is necessary to make decisions that provide not so much development as the survival of the enterprise, the need for knowledge and use of business forecasting methods is especially important. The problems of forecasting have become recently increasingly complex, as the environment of firms is becoming turbulent and uncertain. Limiting factors that negatively affect the use of forecasting in the domestic environment are the low level of capital accumulation in enterprises, which does not allow to make effective costs for the organization of forecasting. The essence of forecasts is revealed in this paper, their classification is presented and supplemente. The importance of forecasting in business management system is revealed and the main problems that hinder effective forecasting at Ukrainian enterprises are presented. The main advantages of accurate forecasts for business and the consequences of inaccurate and non-existent forecasts are identified. The main stages of forecasting are defined. The effective functioning of enterprises is impossible without the use of forecasting methods in management. It is noted that the choice of the appropriate method for use in a particular situation is an important and difficult task. Managers use those forecasting methods that are most appropriate under the existing constraints and correspond to the situation in the enterprise. However, in practice, managers of some companies neglect them and use different approaches, techniques and principles that, in their opinion, make it possible to abandon the use of forecasting methods. Taking into account the outlined shortcomings, the ways of improving the forecasting process in business management system are given. The author's vision of improving approaches to the use of forecasting opportunities in the activities of enterprises is also proposed and it is offered to develop «Regulations on forecasting», which should provide resources for this process, stages and methods of forecasting and responsibility of performers for quality forecasts. It is noted that taking into account the above mentioned recommendations, Ukrainian companies will be able to avoid many risks of economic activity or reduce their negative impact in the future.

MANAGEMENT OF ADAPTATION OF LOGISTICS CHAINS OF ENTERPRISES

Topicality. The relevance of using modern technologies for the formation of logistics chains in the sectors of the national economy is growing every year, especially in a pandemic that has changed the vision of stability and business forecasting. When making management decisions in logistics systems often use the method of minimizing costs, which often leads to disregard for certain effects in the future and the choice of not the optimal solution. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to analyze the management of logistics chains of the enterprise and study their changes in an unstable situation in Ukraine. Research results. The paper analyzes the infrastructure of Ukraine and concludes that in many respects Ukraine lags behind European countries in terms of infrastructure development, which reduces its economic potential, because most of the possible ways to improve the economic situation are complicated by problems of delivery of goods or services. funds, unavailability due to unsatisfactory operational condition of infrastructure sites, bureaucracy and other problems that are typical for Ukraine. Therefore, the logistics chain may increase, which creates additional risks of non-delivery of goods. The problem of construction of logistics chains of enterprises is considered in the article, the basic tools of management of logistics chains are investigated and the ability to adaptation of logistics chains of enterprises is analyzed. Conclusion. It is concluded that step-by-step adaptation of each link of the chain is required to increase the correctness of the system and increase efficiency in accordance with the main purpose of the activity. The ways of calculating the efficiency of the logistics chain are analyzed and the optimal one is revealed. The main stages of implementation of changes in logistics and possible ways of adaptation of the logistics chain to these changes are investigated, the tools influencing the time of implementation are analyzed. It is concluded that the increase in the logistics system leads to increased risks in the transportation of goods. Recommendations on step-by-step strategy in management decisions are given at the same time as direction coordination and optimization of the logistics system in order to adapt them to changes.