Climate Change Impacts on Atolls and Island Nations in the South Pacific

Author(s):  
J.R. Campbell
2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6046-6066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yalin Fan ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
Xiaolan L. Wang

Abstract Surface wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs) response to global warming are investigated using a coupled atmosphere–wave model by perturbing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with anomalies generated by the Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) coupled models that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) scenario late in the twenty-first century. Several consistent changes were observed across all four realizations for the seasonal means: robust increase of U10 and Hs in the Southern Ocean for both the austral summer and winter due to the poleward shift of the jet stream; a dipole pattern of the U10 and Hs with increases in the northeast sector and decreases at the midlatitude during boreal winter in the North Atlantic due to the more frequent occurrence of the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and strong decrease of U10 and Hs in the tropical western Pacific Ocean during austral summer, which might be caused by the joint effect of the weakening of the Walker circulation and the large hurricane frequency decrease in the South Pacific. Changes of the 99th percentile U10 and Hs are twice as strong as changes in the seasonal means, and the maximum changes are mainly dominated by the changes in hurricanes. Robust strong decreases of U10 and Hs in the South Pacific are obtained because of the large hurricane frequency decrease, while the results in the Northern Hemisphere basins differ among the models. An additional sensitivity experiment suggests that the qualitative response of U10 and Hs is not affected by using SST anomalies only and maintaining the radiative forcing unchanged (using 1980 values), as in this study.


Author(s):  
Shyam S. Salim ◽  
R. Narayanakumar ◽  
R. Remya ◽  
P. K. Safeena ◽  
M. Ramees Rahman ◽  
...  

Climate change, a global challenge facing mankind necessitates governments to develop mitigation and adaptation plans. The climate change has multidimensional impacts on environment, fishery, social, economic and development drivers.  Climate change hot spots –can be defined as the ‘live labs’ where the manifestation of the climate change impacts is observed “first”. The South west India has been recognised as one among the twenty four hot spot regions identified globally. The present paper assessed the climate change vulnerability of over 800 fisher households in two major fishing villages of Kerala from the south west hotspot regions of India. Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capacity (AC) are the pertinent factors that determine the vulnerability of households which were captured using a structured household questionnaire. One ninety eight  indicators were identified in the construction of vulnerability indices of which 37 related to sensitivity, 36 related to exposure and the other 125 indicators dealt with adaptive capacity. The overall vulnerability of the regions was assessed and the analysis revealed that the Poonthura village of Kerala was more vulnerable when compared to Elamkunnapuzha. The coastal population on their vulnerability scores were categorised into low, moderate, high and very high based on score values and geo-spatial analysis was attempted.  The results revealed that majority of fisher households in both villages were highly vulnerable to climate change, which is a major cause of concern. The study advocates the need for a bottom up approach with the proactive participation of the fishers in developing location specific adaptation and mitigation plans to ensure the livelihood of the fishers and the sustainable development of the fisheries sector in the climate change regime.


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