Modelling and Projecting the Response of Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide to Land Use and Related Pressures: The PREDICTS Project

Author(s):  
Andy Purvis ◽  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Adriana De Palma ◽  
Sara Contu ◽  
Samantha L.L. Hill ◽  
...  
Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 353 (6296) ◽  
pp. 288-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Lawrence N. Hudson ◽  
Andrew P. Arnell ◽  
Sara Contu ◽  
Adriana De Palma ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Claude Garcia ◽  
Sini Savilaakso ◽  
Marieke Sassen ◽  
Natasha Stoudmann ◽  
René W. Verburg ◽  
...  

Leclère et al.1 have outlined the possibility of a biodiversity transition for the 21st century, a line of thinking equivalent to the Forest Transition theory and what it says about forest cover globally2. The authors use a suite of global models to explore the impacts on global biodiversity of interventions on land-use, consumption and production patterns. They outline six strategies that have the potential to stop the downfall of global terrestrial biodiversity by 2050 and redress it to a pre-1970 level by 2100. Although robust, sophisticated and well-illustrated, the conclusions of this paper cannot alone be used to frame a post-2020 biodiversity strategy.


Author(s):  
Adriana De Palma ◽  
Katia Sanchez-Ortiz ◽  
Philip A. Martin ◽  
Amy Chadwick ◽  
Guillermo Gilbert ◽  
...  

Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 365 (6458) ◽  
pp. 1108-1113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Rahbek ◽  
Michael K. Borregaard ◽  
Robert K. Colwell ◽  
Bo Dalsgaard ◽  
Ben G. Holt ◽  
...  

Mountains contribute disproportionately to the terrestrial biodiversity of Earth, especially in the tropics, where they host hotspots of extraordinary and puzzling richness. With about 25% of all land area, mountain regions are home to more than 85% of the world’s species of amphibians, birds, and mammals, many entirely restricted to mountains. Biodiversity varies markedly among these regions. Together with the extreme species richness of some tropical mountains, this variation has proven challenging to explain under traditional climatic hypotheses. However, the complex climatic characteristics of rugged mountain regions differ fundamentally from those of lowland regions, likely playing a key role in generating and maintaining diversity. With ongoing global changes in climate and land use, the role of mountains as refugia for biodiversity may well come under threat.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel R Andrew ◽  
Cara Miller ◽  
Graham Hall ◽  
Zac Hemmings ◽  
Ian Oliver

Thermal stress is a key issue for species dominant within ecosystems especially those that carry out key ecosystem service roles. When assessing the impacts of climate change it is critical to assess its biotic impacts relative to other anthropogenic changes to landscapes including the reduction of native vegetation cover, landscape fragmentation and changes in land use intensity. Here we integrate the observed phenotypic plasticity of the dominant and ubiqitous meat ant Iridomyrmex purpureus in critical thermal limits across altitudinal, land cover and land use gradients to: (i) predict the adaptive capacity of a key terrestrial ecosystem service provider to changes in climate, land cover and land use, and (ii) assess the ability of multiple use landscapes to confer maximum resilience to terrestrial biodiversity in the face of a changing climate. The research was carried out along a 270km aridity gradient spanning 840m in altitude in northern New South Wales, Australia. When we assessed critical thermal maximum temperatures (CTmax) of meat ants in relation to the environmental variables, and within the model we had critical thermal minimums of meat ants (CTmin) as a random slope and as a fixed effect we detected a negative aridity effect on CTmax, a negative effect of land use intensity, and no overall correlation between CTmax and CTmin. We also found a negative relationship with warming tolerance of I. purpureus and landscape aridity. In conclusion, we expect to see a reduction in the physiological resilience of I. purpureus as land use intensity increases and as the climate becomes more arid. Meat ants are key ecosystem engineers and as they are put under more stress, wider ecological implications may occur if populations decline or disappear.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Shangguan ◽  
Peng Gong ◽  
Lu Liang ◽  
YongJiu Dai ◽  
Keli Zhang

Rapid land-use change in recent decades in China and its impact on terrestrial biodiversity have been widely studied, particularly at local and regional scales. However, the effect of land-use change on the diversity of soils that support the terrestrial biological system has rarely been studied. Here, we report the first effort to assess the impact of land-use change on soil diversity for the entire nation of China. Soil diversity and land-use effects were analyzed spatially in grids and provinces. The land-use effects on different soils were uneven. Anthropogenic soils occupied approximately 12% of the total soil area, which had already replaced the original natural soils. About 7.5% of the natural soil classes in China were in danger of substantial loss, due to the disturbance of agriculture and construction. More than 80% of the endangered soils were unprotected due to the overlook of soil diversity. The protection of soil diversity should be integrated into future conservation activities.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Georgina L. Adams ◽  
Gonzalo Albaladejo Robles ◽  
Elizabeth H. Boakes ◽  
Guilherme Braga Ferreira ◽  
...  

Abstract Biodiversity continues to decline under the effect of multiple human pressures. We give a brief overview of the main pressures on biodiversity, before focusing on the two that have a predominant effect: land-use and climate change. We discuss how interactions between land-use and climate change in terrestrial systems are likely to have greater impacts than expected when only considering these pressures in isolation. Understanding biodiversity changes is complicated by the fact that such changes are likely to be uneven among different geographic regions and species. We review the evidence for variation in terrestrial biodiversity changes, relating differences among species to key ecological characteristics, and explaining how disproportionate impacts on certain species are leading to a spatial homogenisation of ecological communities. Finally, we explain how the overall losses and homogenisation of biodiversity, and the larger impacts upon certain types of species, are likely to lead to strong negative consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, and consequently for human well-being.


Nature ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 520 (7545) ◽  
pp. 45-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Lawrence N. Hudson ◽  
Samantha L. L. Hill ◽  
Sara Contu ◽  
Igor Lysenko ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel R Andrew ◽  
Cara Miller ◽  
Graham Hall ◽  
Zac Hemmings ◽  
Ian Oliver

Thermal stress is a key issue for species dominant within ecosystems especially those that carry out key ecosystem service roles. When assessing the impacts of climate change it is critical to assess its biotic impacts relative to other anthropogenic changes to landscapes including the reduction of native vegetation cover, landscape fragmentation and changes in land use intensity. Here we integrate the observed phenotypic plasticity of the dominant and ubiqitous meat ant Iridomyrmex purpureus in critical thermal limits across altitudinal, land cover and land use gradients to: (i) predict the adaptive capacity of a key terrestrial ecosystem service provider to changes in climate, land cover and land use, and (ii) assess the ability of multiple use landscapes to confer maximum resilience to terrestrial biodiversity in the face of a changing climate. The research was carried out along a 270km aridity gradient spanning 840m in altitude in northern New South Wales, Australia. When we assessed critical thermal maximum temperatures (CTmax) of meat ants in relation to the environmental variables, and within the model we had critical thermal minimums of meat ants (CTmin) as a random slope and as a fixed effect we detected a negative aridity effect on CTmax, a negative effect of land use intensity, and no overall correlation between CTmax and CTmin. We also found a negative relationship with warming tolerance of I. purpureus and landscape aridity. In conclusion, we expect to see a reduction in the physiological resilience of I. purpureus as land use intensity increases and as the climate becomes more arid. Meat ants are key ecosystem engineers and as they are put under more stress, wider ecological implications may occur if populations decline or disappear.


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