Moving average as a method of assessing risk of pressure injury using the COMHON index (Conscious level, Mobility, Hemodynamic, Oxygenation, Nutrition) for patients in intensive care units

Resumo: Feridas afetam a integridade da pele, e quando não prevenidas ou tratadas podem levar a complicações decorrentes da integridade da pele prejudicada, especialmente em Unidades de Terapia Intensiva (UTIs). Atualmente, as escalas de predição de risco disponíveis para esta avaliação e validadas para o português são as de Braden, Waterlow e Norton. Objetivo: determinar qual a escala mais acurada para a avaliação de pacientes criticamente enfermos. Metodologia: Trata-se de uma revisão integrativa, cuja questão norteadora foi: qual escala para predição de risco para LP, disponível e validada para o português é mais acurada para estimar o risco de LP em pacientes criticamente enfermos internados na UTI? A busca dos estudos foi realizada na BVS, PubMed/MedLine e CINAHL. Resultados: Foram encontrados 134 artigos, elegíveis 123 e incluídos 18 na revisão. Conclusão: Os resultados apontam a necessidade da realização de estudos nesta área.Descritores: Úlcera por Pressão; Unidades de Terapia Intensiva; Cuidados Críticos; EscalasPREDICTION RISK SCALES FOR PRESSURE INJURY IN CRITICALLY ILL PATIENTS INTEGRATIVE REVIEWSummary: Wounds affect skin integrity, and when not prevented or treated can lead to complications resulting from impaired skin integrity, especially in intensive care units (ICUs). Currently, the prediction of risk scales available for this evaluation and validated for the Portuguese are Braden, Waterlow and Norton. Objective: to determine what the more accurate scale for the assessment of critically ill. Methodology: it is an integrative review, whose guiding question was: which to scale for risk prediction for LP, available and validated to Portuguese is more accurate for estimating the risk of LP in critically ill hospitalized in ICU? The search of the studies was held at the BVS, PubMed/MedLine and CINAHL. Results: found 134 items, 123 and included 18 eligible in the review. Conclusion: the results show the need of carrying out studies in this area.Descriptors: Pressure ulcer; Intensive Care Units; Critical Care; ScalesESCALAS DE PREDICCIÓN DE RIESGO PARA LESIÓN POR PRESIÓN EN PACIENTES CRÍTICAMENTE ENFERMOS: REVISIÓN INTEGRATIVAResumen: Las heridas afectan la integridad de la piel y cuando no prevenido o Tratado pueden conducir a las complicaciones resultantes de la integridad de la piel deteriorada, especialmente en unidades de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Actualmente, la predicción de las escalas de riesgo disponibles para esta evaluación y validadas para los portugueses son Braden, Waterlow y Norton. Objetivo: determinar la escala que más precisa para la evaluación de estado crítico. Metodología: ¿ es un examen integrador, cuyo rector era: que a la escala de predicción de riesgo de LP, disponible y validado al portugués es más exacta para estimar el riesgo de LP en críticamente enfermos hospitalizados en UCI? La búsqueda de los estudios se realizó en la BVS, PubMed/MedLine y CINAHL. Resultados: elegibles 18 134 artículos encontrados, 123 e incluido en la revisión. Conclusión: los resultados muestran la necesidad de llevar a cabo estudios en esta área.Descriptores: Úlcera por Presión, Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos, Cuidados Críticos, Escalas.

Download Full-text

Predictive Capacity of COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate

10.1101/2021.03.04.21252897 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Livio Fenga ◽

Mauro Gaspari

Keyword(s):

Intensive Care ◽

Intensive Care Units ◽

Moving Average ◽

Analytical Framework ◽

Daily Basis ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Alternative Formulation ◽

Predictive Capacity ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Analytical Tools

AbstractCOVID-19 infections can spread silently, due to the simultaneous presence of significant numbers of both critical and asymptomatic to mild cases. While for the former reliable data are available (in the form of number of hospitalization and/or beds in intensive care units), this is not the case of the latter. Hence, analytical tools designed to generate reliable forecast and future scenarios, should be implemented to help decision makers planning ahead (e.g. medical structures and equipment). Previous work of one of the authors shows that an alternative formulation of the Test Positivity Rate (TPR), i.e. the proportion of the number of persons tested positive in a given day, exhibits a strong correlation with the number of patients admitted in hospital and intensive care units. In this paper, we investigate the lagged correlation structure between the newly defined TPR and the hospitalized people time series, exploiting a rigorous statistical model, the Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average (SARIMA). The rigorous analytical framework chosen, i.e. the stochastic processes theory, allowed for a reliable forecasting about 12 days ahead, of those quantities. The proposed approach would also allow decision makers to forecast the number of beds in hospitals and intensive care units needed 12 days ahead. The obtained results show that a standardized TPR index is a valuable metric to monitor the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. The index can be computed on daily basis and it is probably one of the best forecasting tools available today for predicting hospital and intensive care units overload, being an optimal compromise between simplicity of calculation and accuracy.

Download Full-text