scholarly journals CLOSE LOOK AT 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS IN TURKEY VIA USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS & EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
pp. 110583
Author(s):  
Harun KINACI ◽  
Mehmet Güray ÜNSAL ◽  
Reşat KASAP
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Efficiency Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Coronavirus Infections

scholarly journals Was School Closure Effective in Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kentaro Iwata ◽  
Asako Doi ◽  
Chisato Miyakoshi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are causing significant damages to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan’s Prime Minister called on all elementary, junior high and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing disease burden has not been investigated. Methods: We used daily data on the report of COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time series analysis were conducted using Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effect were constructed for number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of intervention start to appear 9 days after the school closure; i.e., on March 9. Results: The intervention of school closure did not appear to decrease the incidence of coronavirus infection. If the effectiveness of school closure began on March 9, mean coefficient α for effectiveness of the measure was calculated to be 0.08 (95% credible interval -0.36 to 0.65), and the actual reported cases were more than predicted, yet with rather wide credible interval. Sensitivity analyses using different dates also showed similar results. Conclusions: School closure carried out in Japan did not show the effectiveness to mitigate the transmission of novel coronavirus infection.

scholarly journals Smart Building Energy Inefficiencies Detection through Time Series Analysis and Unsupervised Machine Learning

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 6042
Author(s):  
Hanaa Talei ◽  
Driss Benhaddou ◽  
Carlos Gamarra ◽  
Houda Benbrahim ◽  
Mohamed Essaaidi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Unsupervised Learning ◽  
Energy Savings ◽  
Efficiency Analysis ◽  
Hvac Systems ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Energy Efficiency Analysis

The climate of Houston, classified as a humid subtropical climate with tropical influences, makes the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems the largest electricity consumers in buildings. HVAC systems in commercial buildings are usually operated by a centralized control system and/or an energy management system based on a fixed schedule and scheduled control of a zone setpoint, which is not appropriate for many buildings with changing occupancy rates. Lately, as part of energy efficiency analysis, attention has focused on collecting and analyzing smart meters and building-related data, as well as applying supervised learning techniques, to propose new strategies to operate HVAC systems and reduce energy consumption. On the other hand, unsupervised learning techniques have been used to study the consumption information and profile characterization of different buildings after cluster analysis is performed. This paper adopts a different approach by revealing the power of unsupervised learning to cluster data and unveiling hidden patterns. In this study, we also identify energy inefficiencies after exploring the cluster results of a single building’s HVAC consumption data and building usage data as part of the energy efficiency analysis. Time series analysis and the K-means clustering algorithm are successfully applied to identify new energy-saving opportunities in a highly efficient office building located in the Houston area (TX, USA). The paper uses 1-year data from a highly efficient Leadership in Energy and Environment Design (LEED)-, Energy Star-, and Net Zero-certified building, showing a potential energy savings of 6% using the K-means algorithm. The results show that clustering is instrumental in helping building managers identify potential additional energy savings.

Dynamical Peculiarities of Concatenational Changes in Functional Cardiovascular Parameters

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (82) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eurelija Venskaitytė ◽  
Jonas Poderys ◽  
Tadas Česnaitis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Functional State ◽  
The Body ◽  
Functional Changes ◽  
High Intensity Training ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Greco Roman ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Standard Lead

Research  background  and  hypothesis.  Traditional  time  series  analysis  techniques,  which  are  also  used  for the analysis of cardiovascular signals, do not reveal the relationship between the  changes in the indices recorded associated with the multiscale and chaotic structure of the tested object, which allows establishing short-and long-term structural and functional changes.Research aim was to reveal the dynamical peculiarities of interactions of cardiovascular system indices while evaluating the functional state of track-and-field athletes and Greco-Roman wrestlers.Research methods. Twenty two subjects participated in the study, their average age of 23.5 ± 1.7 years. During the study standard 12 lead electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded. The following ECG parameters were used in the study: duration of RR interval taken from the II standard lead, duration of QRS complex, duration of JT interval and amplitude of ST segment taken from the V standard lead.Research  results.  Significant  differences  were  found  between  inter-parametric  connections  of  ST  segment amplitude and JT interval duration at the pre and post-training testing. Observed changes at different hierarchical levels of the body systems revealed inadequate cardiac metabolic processes, leading to changes in the metabolic rate of the myocardium and reflected in the dynamics of all investigated interactions.Discussion and conclusions. It has been found that peculiarities of the interactions of ECG indices interactions show the exposure of the  functional changes in the body at the onset of the workload. The alterations of the functional state of the body and the signs of fatigue, after athletes performed two high intensity training sessions per day, can be assessed using the approach of the evaluation of interactions between functional variables. Therefore the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using time series analysis methods is suitable for the observation of these processes and the functional state of the body.Keywords: electrocardiogram, time series, functional state.

The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth of Ethiopia: Time Series Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Addissie Melak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Integration Test

Economic growth of countries is one of the fundamental questions in economics. Most African countries are opening their economies for welcoming of foreign investors. As such Ethiopia, like many African countries took measures to attract and improve foreign direct investment. The purpose of this study is to examine the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) for economic growth of Ethiopia over the period of 1981-2013. The study shows an overview of Ethiopian economy and investment environment by the help of descriptive and econometric methods of analysis to establish empirical investigation for the contribution of FDI on Ethiopian economy. OLS method of time series analysis is employed to analyse the data. The stationary of the variables have been checked by using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root test and hence they are stationery at first difference. The co- integration test also shows that there is a long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Accordingly, the finding of the study shows that FDI, GDP per capita, exchange rate, total investment as percentage of GDP, inflow of FDI stock, trade as percentage of GDP, annual growth rate of GDP and liberalization of the economy have positive impact on Ethiopian GDP. Whereas Gross fixed domestic investment, inflows of FDI and Gross capital formation influence economic growth of Ethiopia negatively. This finding suggests that there should be better policy framework to attract and improve the volume of FDI through creating conducive environment for investment.

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