Purpose To study the predictive and prognostic value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)–assessed tumor response after long-course neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods This study included 79 patients who had T3 or T4 and/or N+ rectal cancer treated with long-course neoadjuvant chemoradiation. MRI-assessed tumor regression grade (mrTRG) was assessed in 64 patients. MRIs were reviewed by the study radiologist. Surgical and pathologic reports for those who underwent surgery were reviewed. Disease-free survival (DFS) was estimated. Progression during therapy, local relapse, metastasis, and death resulting from the tumor were classified as events. Statistical significance was calculated. Results In 11 patients, the tumor completely disappeared on MRI; that is, it had an mrTRG of 1. All but one patient, who chose deferred surgery, had a complete pathologic response (pCR), with a positive predictive value of nearly 100%. Of the 20 patients who had an mrTRG of 2 on MRI, six had a pCR. mrTRG 3, mrTRG 4, and mrTRG 5 were detected in 24, six, and three patients, respectively, of whom only one patient had a pCR. The 2-year DFS was 77%. The mrTRG was significant for DFS. The 2-year DFS was 88% for patients with a good response versus 66% for those with a poor response (P = .046). Conclusion MRI-assessed complete tumor response was strongly correlated with pCR and, therefore, can be used as a surrogate marker to predict absence of viable tumor cells. Our results can be used to implement use of mrTRGs in larger prospective correlative studies as a tool to select patients for whom deferred surgery may be appropriate. Also, those with a poor response may be offered further treatment options before definitive surgery.
GOLPH3 overexpression correlates with poor response to neoadjuvant therapy and prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer