Exploring trophic interactions and cascades in the Baltic Sea using a complex end-to-end ecosystem model with extensive food web integration

2020 ◽  
Vol 436 ◽  
pp. 109281
Author(s):  
Sieme Bossier ◽  
J. Rasmus Nielsen ◽  
Stefan Neuenfeldt
2003 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 939-950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris J Harvey ◽  
Sean P Cox ◽  
Timothy E Essington ◽  
Sture Hansson ◽  
James F Kitchell

Abstract Because fisheries operate within a complex array of species interactions, scientists increasingly recommend multispecies approaches to fisheries management. We created a food web model for the Baltic Sea proper, using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, to evaluate interactions between fisheries and the food web from 1974 to 2000. The model was based largely on values generated by multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA). Ecosim outputs closely reproduced MSVPA biomass estimates and catch data for sprat (Sprattus sprattus), herring (Clupea harengus), and cod (Gadus morhua), but only after making adjustments to cod recruitment, to vulnerability to predation of specific species, and to foraging times. Among the necessary adjustments were divergent trophic relationships between cod and clupeids: cod exhibited top-down control on sprat biomass, but had little influence on herring. Fishing, the chief source of mortality for cod and herring, and cod reproduction, as driven by oceanographic conditions as well as unexplained variability, were also key structuring forces. The model generated many hypotheses about relationships between key biota in the Baltic Sea food web and may ultimately provide a basis for estimating community responses to management actions.


2002 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 929-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerzy Falandysz ◽  
Barbara Wyrzykowska ◽  
Lidia Strandberg ◽  
Tomasz Puzyn ◽  
Bo Strandberg ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 435 ◽  
pp. 109249
Author(s):  
Henrik Skov ◽  
Erik Kock Rasmussen ◽  
Jonne Kotta ◽  
Anne Lise Middelboe ◽  
Thomas Uhrenholdt ◽  
...  

2003 ◽  
Vol 166 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Kumblad ◽  
Michael Gilek ◽  
Björn Næslund ◽  
Ulrik Kautsky

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artur Nowicki ◽  
Maciej Janecki ◽  
Mirosław Darecki ◽  
Piotr Piotrowski ◽  
Lidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka

Abstract The objective of this paper is to present an automatic monitoring system for the 3D CEMBS model in the operational version. This predictive, eco hydrodynamic model is used as a tool to control the conditions and bio productivity of the Baltic sea environment and to forecast physical and ecological changes in the studied basin. Satellite-measured data assimilation is used to constrain the model and achieve higher accuracy of its results. 3D CEMBS is a version of the Community Earth System Model, adapted for the Baltic Sea. It consists of coupled ocean and ice models, working in active mode together with the ecosystem module. Atmospheric forecast from the UM model (Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of the Warsaw University) are used as a forcing fields feed through atmospheric data model. In addition, river inflow of freshwater and nutrient deposition from 71 main rivers is processed by land model. At present, satellite data from AQUA MODIS, processed by the SatBałtyk project Operational System are used for the assimilation of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a concentration. In the operational mode, 48-hour forecasts are produced at six-hour intervals, providing a wide range of hydrodynamic and biochemical parameters.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Ojaveer ◽  
S. Neuenfeldt ◽  
M. Eero ◽  
L. Uusitalo

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej Janecki ◽  
Artur Nowicki ◽  
Alicja Kańska ◽  
Maria Golenko ◽  
Lidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka

Abstract Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea during six latest winters – 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 are analysed using coupled ice–ocean numerical model 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea). Simulation results are compared with observations from monitoring stations, ice charts and satellite data. High correlation between model results and observations has been confirmed both in terms of spatial and temporal approach. The analysed period has a high interannual variability of ice extent, the number of ice days and ice thickness. Increasing number of relatively mild winters in the Northern Europe directly associated with climate change results in reduced ice concentration in the Baltic Sea. In this perspective, the implementation and development of the sea ice modelling approach (in addition to standard monitoring techniques) is critical to assess current state of the Baltic Sea environment and predict possible climate related changes in the ecosystem and their influence for human marine–related activities, such as fishery or transportation.


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