The Knightian uncertainty and the risk premium and the risk free rate puzzles in Japan and the U.S.

2007 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Wada
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 598-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Landier ◽  
David Thesmar

Abstract We analyze the dynamics of earnings forecasts and discount rates implicit in valuations during the COVID-19 crisis. Forecasts over 2020 earnings have been progressively reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts have reacted much less. We estimate an implicit discount rate going from 8.5% in mid-February to 11% at the end of March and reverting to its initial level in mid-May. Over the period, the unlevered asset risk premium increases by 50bp, the leverage effect also increases by 50bp, while the risk free rate decreases by 100bp. Hence, analysts’ forecast revisions explain all of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid-May 2020. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.


Author(s):  
Nikolai Yu. Trifonov

Risk build-up method is the most used for calculating the capitalization rates. With the help of the literature analysis, the origin of this method is considered. The method was based on the relationship between risk and profitability of a stock in exchange trading, proven statistically. Later, when formulating the build-up method, this idea was transferred without any justification to the valuation of enterprises that do not list their securities on stock exchange. In other words, the formulas traditionally used in the application of the build-up method are empirical in nature and not precise.It is more accurate to write them down by analogy with Irwin Fisher's equation of returns. Based on the principle of dependence, one of the main ones for the valuation procedure, the essence of which is that the value of the valuation subject depends on its economic location, a set of four independent risks is given for use in the build-up method in general case: risk-free rate, country risk premium, branch risk premium, and subject risk adjustment. It is noted that the numerical value of these parameters used in the method fundamentally depends on the monetary unit used in the calculation (the valuation currency). Recommendations are given on finding a risk-free rate for various currencies, on calculating country risk premium, branch risk premium, and subject risk adjustment. The article is intended for academics, lecturers, and practitioners in such areas as corporate finance, business microeconomics, valuation, and investment analysis.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
George M. Mukupa ◽  
Elias R. Offen ◽  
Edward M. Lungu

In this paper, we study the risk averse investor's equilibrium equity premium in a semi martingale market with arbitrary jumps. We realize that,  if we normalize the market, the equilibrium equity premium is consistent to taking the risk free rate $\rho=0$ in martingale markets. We also observe that the value process affects both the diffusive and rare-event premia except for the CARA negative exponential utility function. The bond price always affect the diffusive risk premium for this risk averse investor.


2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Savor ◽  
Mungo Wilson

AbstractStock market average returns and Sharpe ratios are significantly higher on days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment, or interest rates is scheduled for announcement. The average announcement-day excess return from 1958 to 2009 is 11.4 basis points (bp) versus 1.1 bp for all the other days, suggesting that over 60% of the cumulative annual equity risk premium is earned on announcement days. The Sharpe ratio is 10 times higher. In contrast, the risk-free rate is detectably lower on announcement days, consistent with a precautionary saving motive. Our results demonstrate a trade-off between macroeconomic risk and asset returns, and provide an estimate of the premium investors demand to bear this risk.


2004 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Guo

AbstractThis paper presents a consumption-based model that explains the equity premium puzzle through two channels. First, because of borrowing constraints, the shareholder cannot completely diversify his income risk and requires a sizable risk premium on stocks. Second, because of limited stock market participation, the precautionary saving demand lowers the risk-free rate but not stock return and generates a substantial liquidity premium. This model also replicates many other salient features of the data, including the first two moments of the risk-free rate, excess stock volatility, stock return predictability, and the unstable relation between stock volatility and the dividend yield.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 251
Author(s):  
Francesca Beccace ◽  
Roberto Tasca ◽  
Luisa Tibiletti

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13 Fair Value Measurement lays down two methods to adjust Expected Present Value (EPV) for risk. According to Method 1, expected cash inflows should be risk-adjusted by subtracting a risk-premium and discounted at the market risk-free rate, see (IFRS 13, B25). In contrast according to Method 2, expected cash inflows should be discounted at the risk-free rate augmented by a risk-premium addendum, see (IFRS 13, B26). Standard IFRS 13, B29 leaves the freedom to choose between the two methods. The aim of this note is to identify the relationship between the Risk-Adjusted EPVs rolled out from Method 1 and Method 2. First we introduce a theoretical solution to risk-adjustments compliant with the Standard IFRS 13, B29. Then, we set up a user-oriented proxy to connect the risk-premium present in Method 1 with the risk-adjusted rate present in Method 2. This proxy spots light on the key role played by the Macaulay Duration of expected inflows, rather than that of the lifetime of the project. As a consequence, projects expiring at the same redemption date and endowed with the same EPV and/or the same total inflow may differ considerably in risk-adjustments, due to different Macaulay Durations. A user-oriented method to properly to fast evaluate risk-adjustments for multi-cash inflow projects is provided. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of the Macaulay Duration on Risk-Adjusted EPV is also rolled out through numerical examples.


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