Short-term liner ship fleet planning with container transshipment and uncertain container shipment demand

Demand forecasting has a pivotal role in making informed business decisions by predicting future sales using historical data. Traditionally, demand forecasting has been widely used in the management of production, staffing and warehousing for sales and marketing data. However, the use of demand forecasting has little been studied in the container shipping industry. Improved visibility into the demand for container shipments has been a long-held objective of industry stakeholders. This paper addresses the shortcomings of both short-term and long-term shipment demand forecasting for the Australian container shipping industry. In this study, we compare three forecasting models, namely, the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Holt–Winters’ seasonal method and Facebook’s Prophet, to find the best fitting model for short-term and long-term import demand forecasting in the Australian shipping industry. Demand data from three years, i.e., 2016–2018, is used for the Asia–Oceania trade lane. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and 2-fold walk-forward cross-validation are used for the model evaluation. The experiment results observed from the selected metrics suggest that Prophet outperforms the other models in its comparison for container shipment demand forecasting.

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Multi-period liner ship fleet planning with dependent uncertain container shipment demand

Maritime Policy & Management ◽

10.1080/03088839.2013.865848 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 42 (1) ◽

pp. 43-67 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Qiang Meng ◽

Tingsong Wang ◽

Shuaian Wang

Keyword(s):

Fleet Planning ◽

Container Shipment

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Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater

Behavioral and Brain Sciences ◽

10.1017/s0140525x15000928 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 39 ◽

Author(s):

Mary C. Potter

Keyword(s):

Working Memory ◽

Rapid Serial Visual Presentation ◽

Language Comprehension ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Visual Presentation ◽

Long Term Memory ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Use Of Knowledge

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

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Ultrastructural Changes of Canine Kidneys During 24-Hour Perfusion on a LI-400 Preservation System

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100065626 ◽

1971 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 316-317

Author(s):

M. O. Magnusson ◽

D. G. Osborne ◽

T. Shimoji ◽

W. S. Kiser ◽

W. A. Hawk

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

Electrolyte Solution ◽

Ultrastructural Changes ◽

Midline Incision ◽

Short Term ◽

Pentobarbital Anesthesia ◽

Pulsatile Perfusion

Short term experimental and clinical preservation of kidneys is presently best accomplished by hypothermic continuous pulsatile perfusion with cryoprecipitated and millipore filtered plasma. This study was undertaken to observe ultrastructural changes occurring during 24-hour preservation using the above mentioned method.A kidney was removed through a midline incision from healthy mongrel dogs under pentobarbital anesthesia. The kidneys were flushed immediately after removal with chilled electrolyte solution and placed on a LI-400 preservation system and perfused at 8-10°C. Serial kidney biopsies were obtained at 0-½-1-2-4-8-16 and 24 hours of preservation. All biopsies were prepared for electron microscopy. At the end of the preservation period the kidneys were autografted.

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Polychlorinated biphenyl induced hepatocyte alterations

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s042482010012789x ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 716-717

Author(s):

D.N. Collins ◽

J.N. Turner ◽

K.O. Brosch ◽

R.F. Seegal

Keyword(s):

Lipid Droplets ◽

Wistar Rats ◽

Homovanillic Acid ◽

Polychlorinated Biphenyl ◽

Corn Oil ◽

Environmental Pollutants ◽

Short Term ◽

Pcb Congeners ◽

Urinary Levels ◽

The Brain

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a ubiquitous class of environmental pollutants with toxic and hepatocellular effects, including accumulation of fat, proliferated smooth endoplasmic recticulum (SER), and concentric membrane arrays (CMAs) (1-3). The CMAs appear to be a membrane storage and degeneration organelle composed of a large number of concentric membrane layers usually surrounding one or more lipid droplets often with internalized membrane fragments (3). The present study documents liver alteration after a short term single dose exposure to PCBs with high chlorine content, and correlates them with reported animal weights and central nervous system (CNS) measures. In the brain PCB congeners were concentrated in particular regions (4) while catecholamine concentrations were decreased (4-6). Urinary levels of homovanillic acid a dopamine metabolite were evaluated (7).Wistar rats were gavaged with corn oil (6 controls), or with a 1:1 mixture of Aroclor 1254 and 1260 in corn oil at 500 or 1000 mg total PCB/kg (6 at each level).

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Acetaminophen: Macula densa hypersecretory activity by induced hepatotoxicity

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s042482010012895x ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 934-935

Author(s):

S.S. Poolsawat ◽

C.A. Huerta ◽

S.TY. Lae ◽

G.A. Miranda

Keyword(s):

Cell Proliferation ◽

Liver Function ◽

Chronic Inflammation ◽

Foam Cell ◽

Term Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Drug Induced ◽

Experimental Induction ◽

Tissue Alterations ◽

Toxic Responses

Introduction. Experimental induction of altered histology by chemical toxins is of particular importance if its outcome resembles histopathological phenomena. Hepatotoxic drugs and chemicals are agents that can be converted by the liver into various metabolites which consequently evoke toxic responses. Very often, these drugs are intentionally administered to resolve an illness unrelated to liver function. Because of hepatic detoxification, the resulting metabolites are suggested to be integrated into the macromolecular processes of liver function and cause an array of cellular and tissue alterations, such as increased cytoplasmic lysis, centrilobular and localized necroses, chronic inflammation and “foam cell” proliferation of the hepatic sinusoids (1-4).Most experimentally drug-induced toxicity studies have concentrated primarily on the hepatic response, frequently overlooking other physiological phenomena which are directly related to liver function. Categorically, many studies have been short-term effect investigations which seldom have followed up the complications to other tissues and organs when the liver has failed to function normally.

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Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100159412 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 48 (3) ◽

pp. 374-375

Author(s):

D.E. Loudy ◽

J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽

J.T. Yarrington ◽

F.Y. Thompson ◽

J.P. Gibson

Keyword(s):

Antidepressant Drug ◽

Beagle Dogs ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Platelet Counts ◽

Toxicological Studies ◽

Induced Aggregation ◽

Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

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