The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

2009 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 867-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidan Meyler
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Liquid Fuel ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Pass Through

scholarly journals Direct vs. Indirect Impact of Fuel Price on Wages in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope Lydia Leshoro ◽  
Glenda Maluleke
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Pass Through

The international oil price has been increasing significantly, but consumers react more to the announcement of the increase in fuel (pump) price, than an increase in international oil prices. This study, therefore, investigates the direct effect of fuel prices on the inflation rate and wages in South Africa, on the one hand, and the domestic price pass-through from fuel prices to wages (indirect effect) on the other. The impulse-response function of the vector autoregressive (VAR) technique was used to examine the direct and indirect effects of fuel prices on the inflation rate and wages, as well as the domestic prices pass-through from fuel prices to wages in South Africa. Quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2018Q2 were utilised. The empirical results showed that inflation and wages responded positively to the shock in the fuel price. The results indicated that although wages increased because of a shock in the inflation rate—depicting the pass-through from the fuel price—the direct impact of the fuel price on wages is more significant. This study departs from the usual studies that examine the exchange rate pass-through of international oil prices to the inflation rate. The conclusion drawn was that the pass-through effect was not as strong and did not contribute as much as the direct effect of the fuel price. Therefore, the indirect shock of fuel prices, via inflation, does not so much cause an increase in wages as its direct shock. The study concludes with policy recommendations.

scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Economic Outlook

Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.

ANALYZING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES ON CHINA’S PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
XIANCHUN LIAO ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

As the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, China depends on imports for approximately 60% and domestic production for approximately 40%, of its oil demand. Therefore, it is very interesting to assess the pass-through effects of both domestic and international crude oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices. After the short- and long-run investigations using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology of Shin et al. [Shin, Y, BC Yu and M Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, R Sickels and W Horrace (eds.), pp. 281–314. Springer.], we find overwhelming evidence supporting the asymmetric price transmission mechanism between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in both the short- and long-run. In the case of diesel prices, on the other hand, the asymmetry effects seem likely to be a long-run phenomenon.

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