scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Economic Outlook

Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.

Staff Note for the G-20—A Guiding Framework for Structural Reforms

Policy Papers ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Central Element ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Structural Policy ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Guiding Principles ◽  
Near Term ◽  
National Growth

This note responds to a request from the G20 for IMF assistance in helping develop priorities and guiding principles for structural reforms. Structural reforms have long been a central element of the G20’s strategy of achieving job-rich growth, and G20 countries have made over 1,000 structural policy commitments in their national growth strategies. However, implementation of these commitments has been relatively weak so far. Faster progress on structural reforms is therefore needed to support growth in the near term and bolster potential growth in the medium term—and more generally to make economies more innovative, flexible, and resilient.

scholarly journals Republic of Azerbaijan

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (301) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Revenue Administration

Azerbaijan is recovering from a banking crisis and recession caused by a prolonged decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Monetary conditions remain tight under a de facto peg. Despite rising government spending, the fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2019 mainly due to firmer oil prices and improvements in revenue administration. Weaknesses in bank balance sheets, structural and policy rigidities, and institutional and governance deficiencies hinder medium-term growth prospects and weaken resilience to shocks.

scholarly journals St. Lucia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (54) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term

St. Lucia’s near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by large infrastructure investment and robust tourist inflows. However, longer-term growth continues to be impeded by high public debt, lingering vulnerabilities in the financial system, and structural impediments to private investment. Diminishing policy buffers further weaken the country’s resilience to external shocks against the backdrop of a precarious global outlook.

scholarly journals The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.

scholarly journals The Bahamas

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (198) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hurricane Vulnerability ◽  
The U.S

Growth has returned after years of stagnation. The reform-oriented government is tackling structural issues, with notable achievements in the fiscal area. The financial sector is sound and resilient to current stability threats, but credit remains scarce. The offshore sector faces heightened international scrutiny and the government is taking steps to strengthen compliance with AML/CFT and tax transparency standards. Tourism and related foreign investments will support growth in the near-term, while low competitiveness and diversification dampen medium-term prospects. Growth would suffer from a slowdown in the U.S. or higher oil prices, and hurricane vulnerability persists. Reform momentum could stall, undermining fiscal consolidation efforts.

scholarly journals Iraq

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (251) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Expected Improvement ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Growth Prospects

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a double shock facing Iraq as a result of the conflict with the Islamic State and the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, real GDP increased by 11 percent owing to a 25 percent increase in oil production, which was little affected by the conflict with the Islamic State. Falling oil prices have driven the decline in Iraq’s international reserves from $54 billion at the end of 2015 to $45 billion at the end of 2016. Medium-term growth prospects are positive. Growth will be driven by the projected moderate increase in oil production and the rebound in non-oil growth supported by the expected improvement in security and implementation of structural reform.

scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Middle East and Central Asia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook

Oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region (MENAP) are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices, which have dampened growth and contributed to large fiscal and external deficits.

scholarly journals Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (79) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Response ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Made In

This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Italy reflects discussions with the Italian authorities in January 2020 and is based on the information available as of January 28, 2020. It focuses on Italy’s medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. It, therefore, does not cover the outbreak or the related policy response, which has since become the overarching near-term priority. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring this health crisis and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Italy and globally. The overarching challenges are to raise growth and enhance resilience. The IMF staff projects growth in Italy to be the lowest in the European Union over the next five years. High public debt remains a key source of vulnerability. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening bank balance sheets, but important weaknesses remain. In order to durably raise growth and reduce vulnerabilities, Italy needs faster potential growth and medium-term fiscal consolidation.

India’s Gulf ties will face setbacks in the near term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Near Term

Significance Indian nationals are struggling to maintain jobs in the Middle East as GCC states contend with historically low oil prices as well as the economic fallout of the pandemic. Gulf countries have meanwhile expressed concern at what they regard as growing anti-Muslim sentiment in India. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to gather support from GCC countries regarding the Kashmir issue. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will increase investment in India’s health and tech sectors. The number of Indian migrant workers in South-east Asia, Australia and Canada will gradually increase.

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