Modelling and mapping soil organic carbon stocks under future climate change in south-eastern Australia

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Download Full-text

Change in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks under 12 Climate Change Projections over New South Wales, Australia

Soil Science Society of America Journal ◽

10.2136/sssaj2016.02.0038 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 80 (5) ◽

pp. 1296-1307 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Jonathan M. Gray ◽

Thomas F.A. Bishop

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

New South ◽

New South Wales ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

South Wales ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks

Download Full-text

Parent material and climate affect soil organic carbon fractions under pastures in south-eastern Australia

Soil Research ◽

10.1071/sr16305 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 55 (8) ◽

pp. 799 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Susan E. Orgill ◽

Jason R. Condon ◽

Mark K. Conyers ◽

Stephen G. Morris ◽

Brian W. Murphy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Parent Material ◽

Climatic Zone ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Carbon Fractions ◽

South Eastern ◽

Mean Annual Rainfall ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

South Eastern Australia

In the present field survey, 72 sites were sampled to assess the effect of climate (Monaro, Boorowa and Coleambally regions) and parent material (Monaro region only; basalt and granite) on soil organic carbon (OC) under perennial pastures. In the higher-rainfall zone (Monaro and Boorowa; >500mm mean annual rainfall), OC stocks under introduced and native perennial pastures were compared, whereas in the lower-rainfall zone (Coleambally; <500mm mean annual rainfall) OC stocks under crops and pastures were compared. Carbon fractions included total OC (TOC), particulate OC (POC), resistant OC (ROC) and humic OC (HUM). Higher OC stocks were associated with higher spring and summer rainfall and lower annual temperatures. Within a climatic zone, parent material affected the stock of OC fractions in the 0–30cm soil layer. Within a climatic zone, when grouped by parent material, there was no difference in OC stock with vegetation type. There were significant correlations between soil factors associated with parent material and OC concentration, including negative correlations between SiO2 and HUM (P<0.05) and positive correlations between cation exchange capacity and TOC, POC and ROC (P<0.01). TOC was also positively correlated with total nitrogen (N) and available sulfur (S; P<0.05), indicating organic matter in soil is important for N and S supply for plant production in the studied regions, and vice versa. Although ensuring adequate available S may increase OC stocks in south-eastern Australia, the large stock of OC in the soil under perennial pastures, and the dominating effect of climate and parent material on this stock, may mean that modest increases in soil OC due to management factors go undetected.

Download Full-text

Soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid West African drylands: implications for climate change adaptation and mitigation Review

10.5194/soil-2016-45-rc2 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Anonymous

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

West African ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽

Arid West ◽

Semi Arid ◽

Adaptation And Mitigation

Download Full-text

Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions

Marine and Freshwater Research ◽

10.1071/mf17387 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 70 (1) ◽

pp. 33 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Curtis Champion ◽

Alistair J. Hobday ◽

Xuebin Zhang ◽

Gretta T. Pecl ◽

Sean R. Tracey

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Relevant Information ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

South Eastern ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Habitat Persistence ◽

Temporal Persistence ◽

Seriola Lalandi

Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. To effectively adapt, marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales. We model oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from south-eastern Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time steps over the period 1996–2040. Habitat predictions were used to quantify the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion, whereas increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats, and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under future climate change.

Download Full-text