Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions

Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. To effectively adapt, marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales. We model oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from south-eastern Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time steps over the period 1996–2040. Habitat predictions were used to quantify the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion, whereas increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats, and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under future climate change.

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Modelling and mapping soil organic carbon stocks under future climate change in south-eastern Australia

Geoderma ◽

10.1016/j.geoderma.2021.115442 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 405 ◽

pp. 115442

Author(s):

Bin Wang ◽

Jonathan M. Gray ◽

Cathy M. Waters ◽

Muhuddin Rajin Anwar ◽

Susan E. Orgill ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Carbon Stocks ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

South Eastern ◽

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

South Eastern Australia

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Droughts, floods and freshwater ecosystems: evaluating climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies

Marine and Freshwater Research ◽

10.1071/mf09285 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 62 (3) ◽

pp. 223 ◽

Cited By ~ 47

Author(s):

Allison Aldous ◽

James Fitzsimons ◽

Brian Richter ◽

Leslie Bach

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Case Studies ◽

Management Practices ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Freshwater Ecosystems ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

South Eastern ◽

Eastern Australia

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hydrologic regimes and freshwater ecosystems, and yet few basins have adequate numerical models to guide the development of freshwater climate adaptation strategies. Such strategies can build on existing freshwater conservation activities, and incorporate predicted climate change impacts. We illustrate this concept with three case studies. In the Upper Klamath Basin of the western USA, a shift in land management practices would buffer this landscape from a declining snowpack. In the Murray–Darling Basin of south-eastern Australia, identifying the requirements of flood-dependent natural values would better inform the delivery of environmental water in response to reduced runoff and less water. In the Savannah Basin of the south-eastern USA, dam managers are considering technological and engineering upgrades in response to more severe floods and droughts, which would also improve the implementation of recommended environmental flows. Even though the three case studies are in different landscapes, they all contain significant freshwater biodiversity values. These values are threatened by water allocation problems that will be exacerbated by climate change, and yet all provide opportunities for the development of effective climate adaptation strategies.

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Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3855 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giovanni Di Virgilio ◽

Jason P. Evans ◽

Alejandro Di Luca ◽

Michael R. Grose ◽

Vanessa Round ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Added Value ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Australian Alps ◽

Future Climate Projections

<p>Coarse resolution global climate models (GCM) cannot resolve fine-scale drivers of regional climate, which is the scale where climate adaptation decisions are made. Regional climate models (RCMs) generate high-resolution projections by dynamically downscaling GCM outputs. However, evidence of where and when downscaling provides new information about both the current climate (added value, AV) and projected climate change signals, relative to driving data, is lacking. Seasons and locations where CORDEX-Australasia ERA-Interim and GCM-driven RCMs show AV for mean and extreme precipitation and temperature are identified. A new concept is introduced, &#8216;realised added value&#8217;, that identifies where and when RCMs simultaneously add value in the present climate and project a different climate change signal, thus suggesting plausible improvements in future climate projections by RCMs. ERA-Interim-driven RCMs add value to the simulation of summer-time mean precipitation, especially over northern and eastern Australia. GCM-driven RCMs show AV for precipitation over complex orography in south-eastern Australia during winter and widespread AV for mean and extreme minimum temperature during both seasons, especially over coastal and high-altitude areas. RCM projections of decreased winter rainfall over the Australian Alps and decreased summer rainfall over northern Australia are collocated with notable realised added value. Realised added value averaged across models, variables, seasons and statistics is evident across the majority of Australia and shows where plausible improvements in future climate projections are conferred by RCMs. This assessment of varying RCM capabilities to provide realised added value to GCM projections can be applied globally to inform climate adaptation and model development.</p>

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Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2008.1935 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 276 (1663) ◽

pp. 1883-1888 ◽

Cited By ~ 181

Author(s):

Maria Byrne ◽

Melanie Ho ◽

Paulina Selvakumaraswamy ◽

Hong D. Nguyen ◽

Symon A. Dworjanyn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Urchin ◽

Ocean Warming ◽

Future Climate ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Marine Biota ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Near Future

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

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Impacts of future climate change on water resource availability of eastern Australia: A case study of the Manning River basin

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.067 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 573 ◽

pp. 49-59 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Hong Zhang ◽

Bin Wang ◽

De Li Liu ◽

Mingxi Zhang ◽

Puyu Feng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Resource ◽

Resource Availability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Eastern Australia

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Resistance of pasture production to projected climate changes in south-eastern Australia

Crop and Pasture Science ◽

10.1071/cp11274 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 63 (1) ◽

pp. 77 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

B. R. Cullen ◽

R. J. Eckard ◽

R. P. Rawnsley

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Future Climate ◽

Wagga Wagga ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Agricultural Systems ◽

Pasture Production ◽

South Eastern ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Cool Temperate

Climate change impact analysis relies largely on down-scaling climate projections to develop daily time-step, future climate scenarios for use in agricultural systems models. This process of climate down-scaling is complicated by differences in projections from greenhouse gas emission pathways and, in particular, the wide variation between global climate model outputs. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was used to test the resistance of pasture production to the incremental changes in climate predicted over the next 60 years in southern Australia. Twenty-five future climate scenarios were developed by scaling the historical climate by increments of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4°C (with corresponding changes to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and relative humidity) and rainfall by +10, 0, –10, –20 and –30%. The resistance of annual and seasonal pasture production to these climatic changes was simulated at six sites in south-eastern Australia. The sites spanned a range of climates from high rainfall, cool temperate in north-west Tasmania to the lower rainfall, temperate environment of Wagga Wagga in southern New South Wales. Local soil and pasture types were simulated at each site using the Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture model. Little change or higher annual pasture production was simulated at all sites with 1°C warming, but varying responses were observed with further warming. In a pasture containing a C4 native grass at Wagga Wagga, annual pasture production increased with further warming, while production was stable or declined in pasture types based on C3 species in temperate environments. In a cool temperate region pasture production increased with up to 2°C warming. Compared with the historical baseline climate, warmer and drier climate scenarios led to lower pasture production, with summer and autumn growth being most affected, although there was some variation between sites. At all sites winter production was increased under all warming scenarios. Inter-annual variation in pasture production, expressed as the coefficient of variation, increased in the lower rainfall scenarios where production was simulated to decline, suggesting that changing rainfall patterns are likely to affect the variability in pasture production more than increasing temperatures. Together the results indicate that annual pasture production is resistant to climatic changes of up to 2°C warming. The approach used in this study can be used to test the sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic changes; however, it does not incorporate changes in seasonal and extreme climatic events that may also have significant impacts on these systems. Nonetheless, the approach can be used to identify strategies that may increase resilience of agricultural systems to climate change such as the incorporation of C4 species into the pasture base.

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