Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala

This article is devoted to building of the equilibrium model between demand and supply on foreign currency at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (non-cash share). The authors discussed that appeared trade-offs are a product of established current foreign arrangement, administrative measures provided by the National Bank of Ukraine and range of fundamental variables, which are traditionally significant for Ukrainian economy. By means of FAVAR modeling model of demand and supply equlibrium on non-cash foreign currency was built on empirical data of Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, splitted into the periods, proposed by the authors. Next, it was discussed disconnection properties in the model and shown log-linearized specification of the one. The efficiency of fulfillment hypothesis on decointegrating of the fundamental variables' time series has been provided in form of critical statistics values. Also, instrument of GAP analysis of deviation from equilibrium state was proposed and the further analysis of a regulation style of monetary authority was provided. In conclusion, it was summarized that increased share of the cash out of the banks has significantly jeopardized the price stability in Ukraine and the NBU interventions would become more effective if the flexible foreign exchange rate will be accompanied with flexible regime of inflation targeting.

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Determinan of Exchange Market Pressure in ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries

Jurnal Economia ◽

10.21831/economia.v16i1.29716 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 18-32

Author(s):

Lisa Gusmanita ◽

Nury Effendi ◽

Rudi Kurniawan

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Capital Flows ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Panel Data Analysis ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Exchange Market Pressure ◽

Domestic Credit ◽

Market Pressure

Abstract: The global economic turmoil on domestic economy was seen in 1997/1998 crisis which led to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia implementing Inflation Targeting (IT). Empirically, IT was able to reduce foreign exchange market pressure but crisis occurred again in 2008 and large foreign exchange market pressure in 2018. This study uses Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) to examines foreign exchange market pressure in ASEAN IT countries. According to Panday (2015), EMP is percentage change in exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate or combinations. This study aims to find determinant of EMP which can be used by monetary authority controlling pressure on foreign exchange market. Panel data analysis during 2010.Q1-2018.Q4 shows that domestic credit has significant negatively effect to EMP which indicates that domestic credit growth is in line with increasing net capital flows. Current account and US inflation have significant negatively effect while real GDP does not have significant.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Exchange Rate, Monetary PolicyDeterminan Exchange Market Pressure Negara Inflation Targeting di ASEANAbstrak: Gejolak perekonomian global terhadap perekonomian domestik terlihat pada krisis 1997/1998 yang menyebabkan Thailand, Filipina dan Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting (IT). Secara empiris, IT mampu menurunkan tekanan pasar valas akan tetapi krisis kembali terjadi di 2008 dan tekanan pasar valas yang besar di 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan terhadap pasar valas negara IT di ASEAN. Menurut Panday (2015), EMP adalah persentase perubahan nilai tukar, perubahan cadangan devisa, perubahan suku bunga dan atau kombinasinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan ingin mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang memengaruhi EMP sehingga dapat dijadikan masukan bagi otoritas moneter dalam mengendalikan tekanan terhadap pasar valas. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel periode 2010.Q1-2018.Q4. Penelitian menunjukkan kredit domestik signifikan negatif memengaruhi EMP. Hal ini tidak sesuai teori yang mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit domestik sejalan dengan peningkatan net capital flows. Transaksi neraca berjalan dan inflasi AS berpengaruh signifikan negatif sedangkan PDB riil tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap EMP.Kata kunci: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Nilai Tukar, Kebijakan Moneter

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PECULIARITIES OF THE STATE'S ACTIVITY IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET OF UKRAINE

WORLD OF FINANCE ◽

10.35774/sf2021.02.023 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 23-34

Author(s):

Ihor REKUNENKO ◽

Ruslana CHUKHNO

Keyword(s):

Foreign Exchange ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

The State ◽

National Currency ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Economic Relations ◽

Official Exchange Rate ◽

Effective Activity ◽

National Bank

Introduction. One of the urgent and urgent problems today is the effective activity of the state in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, which in an unstable economic situation should be primarily aimed at stabilizing and supporting the national currency, which in turn will create a basis for economic growth and support economic processes in the country, establishing international relations and increasing the competitiveness of the economy as a whole. The purpose of the article is to study the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, to determine the factors and problems that affect its condition. Results. This paper considers the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market, the regulator of which is the National Bank of Ukraine, which carries out operations in the foreign exchange market in order to stabilize the official exchange rate of the national currency. It was found that the introduction of the NBU inflation targeting regime and the introduction of flexible exchange rates allowed the state to reduce inflation and prevent the accumulation of imbalances in the economy. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the state should help reduce negative external and internal factors by implementing an effective monetary policy, which should regulate foreign exchange activities aimed at accumulating Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the national currency and stabilizing Ukraine's foreign economic relations with other countries. world.

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A Study On Technical Analysis With Reference To International Forex

Think India ◽

10.26643/think-india.v22i3.8470 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 1129-1144

Author(s):

Bichith C. Sekhar ◽

A. Umamaheswari

Keyword(s):

Foreign Exchange ◽

Abnormal Return ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Relative Strength ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Strength Index ◽

Technical Tool ◽

Alpha Beta ◽

Decentralized Market ◽

Currency Conversion

The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. The foreign exchange market assists international trade and investments by enabling currency conversion. Our study is to test the technical tools to analyze about the technical impact and its return in the market. For this purpose 13 cross currency pairs were taken as sample size and Jensen’s Alpha, Beta, Relative Strength Index, and Buy and Hold Abnormal Return were used as technical tool for analysis and the conclusion is that it’s not preferred to invest in JPY pairs as the volatility and the return are not up to the mark and its preferred to invest in EURCAD as the return was high when compared to other scripts and the market was moving accordingly to its cross currency pair.

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