scholarly journals PECULIARITIES OF THE STATE'S ACTIVITY IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
pp. 23-34
Author(s):  
Ihor REKUNENKO ◽  
Ruslana CHUKHNO
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
The State ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Activity ◽  
National Bank

Introduction. One of the urgent and urgent problems today is the effective activity of the state in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, which in an unstable economic situation should be primarily aimed at stabilizing and supporting the national currency, which in turn will create a basis for economic growth and support economic processes in the country, establishing interna­tional relations and increasing the competitiveness of the economy as a whole. The purpose of the article is to study the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, to determine the factors and problems that affect its condition. Results. This paper considers the peculiarities of the state's activity in the foreign exchange market, the regulator of which is the National Bank of Ukraine, which carries out operations in the foreign exchange market in order to stabilize the official exchange rate of the national currency. It was found that the introduction of the NBU inflation targeting regime and the intro­duction of flexible exchange rates allowed the state to reduce inflation and prevent the accumu­lation of imbalances in the economy. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the state should help reduce negative external and internal factors by implementing an effective monetary policy, which should regulate foreign exchange activities aimed at accumulating Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the national currency and stabilizing Ukraine's foreign economic relations with other countries. world.

scholarly journals The equilibrium model of demand and supply at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market: disclosure of problematic aspects

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anzhela Kuznyetsova ◽  
Nataliia Misiats ◽  
Olha Klishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The One

This article is devoted to building of the equilibrium model between demand and supply on foreign currency at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (non-cash share). The authors discussed that appeared trade-offs are a product of established current foreign arrangement, administrative measures provided by the National Bank of Ukraine and range of fundamental variables, which are traditionally significant for Ukrainian economy. By means of FAVAR modeling model of demand and supply equlibrium on non-cash foreign currency was built on empirical data of Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, splitted into the periods, proposed by the authors. Next, it was discussed disconnection properties in the model and shown log-linearized specification of the one. The efficiency of fulfillment hypothesis on decointegrating of the fundamental variables' time series has been provided in form of critical statistics values. Also, instrument of GAP analysis of deviation from equilibrium state was proposed and the further analysis of a regulation style of monetary authority was provided. In conclusion, it was summarized that increased share of the cash out of the banks has significantly jeopardized the price stability in Ukraine and the NBU interventions would become more effective if the flexible foreign exchange rate will be accompanied with flexible regime of inflation targeting.

scholarly journals EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE INDEX AS A MACROECONOMIC RISK MEASURING INSTRUMENT

2020 ◽  
pp. 10-20
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The State ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
The Republic

The financial sector of the Republic of Moldova belongs to the developing ones and is characterized by a higher level of risk and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. Globalization and development of advanced information technologies not only create great opportunities for rapid economic development, but also pose serious security threats to the economic development of states, especially in a developing economy. In these conditions, the issue of ensuring the financial stability of the state is becoming increasingly relevant. The state of the financial and foreign exchange market represents one of the most important aspects of the financial security of the state. This study has been developed as part of the scientific project 15.817.06.02A "Development of tools for measuring the financial stability of the state". The study analyzes various macrofinancial risk management tools. The purpose of this study was to calculate the pressure index on the foreign exchange market of both the Republic of Moldova and the main partner countries in terms of international trade. The results of related studies conducted by the authors of this work, which revealed that stability indicators in the foreign exchange market are associated with foreign trade risks served as an argument for the authors of the work to calculate the pressure index on the currency market of Romania and the Russian Federation for comparison with the indicators of the Republic of Moldova. Methods used in research include theoretical and comparative approaches, descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results of the research showed that international trade and the foreign exchange market are interdependent. The first can be considered a channel for transmitting the currency crisis, since demand increases with increasing imports, and this leads to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market. Increased exports reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. But the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova is made by remittances from abroad, which are directly correlated with the dynamics of labor exports. At the same time, it was concluded that at present, due to macroprudential regulation, there are no linear dependencies in financial markets and, therefore, there are no correlations, but only the interdependence of variables.

scholarly journals Determinan of Exchange Market Pressure in ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Lisa Gusmanita ◽  
Nury Effendi ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

 Abstract: The global economic turmoil on domestic economy was seen in 1997/1998 crisis which led to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia implementing Inflation Targeting (IT). Empirically, IT was able to reduce  foreign exchange market pressure but crisis occurred again in 2008 and large foreign exchange market pressure in 2018. This study uses Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) to examines foreign exchange market pressure in ASEAN IT countries. According to Panday (2015), EMP is percentage change in exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate or combinations. This study aims to find determinant of EMP which can be used by monetary authority controlling pressure on foreign exchange market. Panel data analysis during 2010.Q1-2018.Q4 shows that domestic credit has significant negatively effect to EMP which indicates that domestic credit growth is in line with  increasing  net capital flows. Current account and US inflation have significant negatively effect while real GDP does not have significant.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Exchange Rate, Monetary PolicyDeterminan Exchange Market Pressure Negara Inflation Targeting di ASEANAbstrak: Gejolak perekonomian global terhadap perekonomian domestik terlihat pada krisis 1997/1998 yang menyebabkan Thailand, Filipina dan Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting (IT). Secara empiris, IT mampu menurunkan tekanan pasar valas akan tetapi krisis kembali terjadi di 2008 dan tekanan pasar valas yang besar di 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan terhadap pasar valas negara IT di ASEAN. Menurut Panday (2015), EMP adalah persentase perubahan nilai tukar, perubahan cadangan devisa, perubahan suku bunga dan atau kombinasinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan ingin mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang memengaruhi EMP sehingga dapat dijadikan masukan bagi otoritas moneter dalam mengendalikan tekanan terhadap pasar valas. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel periode 2010.Q1-2018.Q4. Penelitian menunjukkan kredit domestik signifikan negatif memengaruhi EMP. Hal ini tidak sesuai teori yang mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit domestik sejalan dengan peningkatan net capital flows. Transaksi neraca berjalan dan inflasi AS berpengaruh signifikan negatif sedangkan PDB riil tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap EMP.Kata kunci: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Nilai Tukar, Kebijakan Moneter

scholarly journals The influence of factors on the security management of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-327
Author(s):  
Oksana Svatiuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Security Management ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The State ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
State Management ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

The article analyzes the principles of development and security management of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine. Substantiates the influence of factors on the functioning of the foreign exchange market such as: improvement of the regulatory framework; monetary policy on the stabilization of the floating exchange rate regime; lending to the National Bank of Ukraine within the current 18-month stand-by program from the International Monetary Fund; replenishment of the market currency through the purchase and sale of government bonds; the influence of international and domestic factors on the liberalization of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine; receipt of a share of currency more than 10% of the population working abroad; restoring the confidence of individuals and entrepreneurs in the national currency. The structure and analysis of the process and dynamics of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine are characterized. The author evaluates the security management of currency regulation of the floating exchange rate regime, which directly affects the state of the foreign exchange market (Fig. 1). The state of exchange rate regulation and its impact on the foreign exchange market on the basis of personal observation during 2015-2021 are studied. The main advantage of this article is the clarification of the elements of the mechanism of currency regulation, which is due to the negative impact of a wide range of external and internal factors on the tools (Fig. 2). This mechanism is a powerful lever of state management of economic security and regulation of foreign exchange market liberalization in the context of a significant deterioration of the crisis situation in Ukraine in recent years. The main areas of security management of the mechanism of functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine are the following. The first is optimization of the procedure of foreign exchange interventions of the NBU – schedule, parameters of interventions. This will increase the transparency and predictability of NBU operations in the foreign exchange market. NBU managers should abandon discriminatory approach to ensure all banks have equal access to interventions. The second is increasing of the digitization and disclosure of communication policies with actors. Its deterioration is due to negative comments addressed to banks regarding speculative actions on exchange rate formation, non-compliance with the requirements of the NBU in lending, security management and customer distrust. The third is strengthening of the reserve requirements for bank security management in order to reduce the excessive liquidity of the banking system.

scholarly journals REGULATORS AND LEVERS OF THE ANTI-CRISIS POLICY OF STATE IN THE FIELD OF MONETARY AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetiana Kosova ◽  
Olga Tereshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Third ◽  
Positive Balance

In the article the definition of the currency crisis as a sharp violation of exchange parity, devaluation of the national currency of a country, the single currency of the economic union, the world reserve currency, etc. for a short period after a period of relatively long exchange rate stability. It is established that the source of the currency crisis can be the banking system, the budget sphere, domestic and foreign public debt, balance of payments, and the channels of influence of factors can be isolated or combined (double, triple, etc.). The main goal of anti-crisis policy in the field of monetary and financial relations is early warning of the crisis. It is shown that the choice of regulators and levers should depend on the model of crisis phenomena in the foreign exchange market, the diversity of which is reduced to the dominance of certain factors: economic, non-economic (military-political, behavioral, psychological), external influence. The retrospectives of four currency crises that have taken place since Ukraine's independence have been assessed, their models have been diagnosed: 1992-1993 – the first, 1998-1999 – mixed (synthesis of the first and third models), 2008-2009 – the third, 2014-2015 – the second. It is statistically shown that the first crisis was the most acute, the third crisis was the mildest. Regulators and levers of anti-crisis policy are defined as a system of interconnected mechanisms of state and market regulation aimed at ensuring the stability of the national currency, its external and internal convertibility, positive balance of payments, growth of official foreign exchange reserves, stimulating the country's export potential. It is proved that the anti-crisis policy of the state in the field of monetary and financial relations should strengthen and complement the operation of market mechanisms with priority given to economic regulators and levers over administrative ones. The main objects of the anti-crisis mechanism in the foreign exchange market, which are implemented in the real and financial sectors of the national economy and are designed to eliminate currency and macroeconomic imbalances, the balance of payments, harmonize monetary and exchange rate policies of the NBU.

Functioning of foreign exchange markets in modern conditions

2020 ◽  
pp. 55-70
Author(s):  
Yu. Kravchenko
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Foreign Exchange Trading

In the article the author considers the dynamics of average daily foreign exchange market turnover. It is revealed that the evolution of foreign exchange trading volumes continues to be dominated mostly by fi nancial institutions’ motives as opposed to needs arising directly from real economic activity. Geographical distribution and structure of average daily foreign exchange market turnover by foreign exchange instrument, counterparty, currency, currency pairs, location of transactions are analyzed. At end of the article, the author concludes that the process of internationalization of world economic relations is slowing down.

A Study On Technical Analysis With Reference To International Forex

Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1129-1144
Author(s):  
Bichith C. Sekhar ◽  
A. Umamaheswari
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Technical Tool ◽  
Alpha Beta ◽  
Decentralized Market ◽  
Currency Conversion

The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. The foreign exchange market assists international trade and investments by enabling currency conversion. Our study is to test the technical tools to analyze about the technical impact and its return in the market.  For this purpose 13 cross currency pairs were taken as sample size and Jensen’s Alpha, Beta, Relative Strength Index, and Buy and Hold Abnormal Return were used as technical tool for analysis and the conclusion is that it’s not preferred to invest in JPY pairs as the volatility and the return are not up to the mark and its preferred to invest in EURCAD as the return was high when compared to other scripts and the market was moving accordingly to its cross currency pair.

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