scholarly journals Trading European Central Bank rumours on the EUR-USD exchange rate market

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 53-70
Author(s):  
Baback Roodbar ◽  
Hugh Metcalf ◽  
Fabrizio Casalin
ORDO ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke

ZusammenfassungDie EZB sollte der Versuchung widerstehen, die Deflationsgefahr in der Eurozone durch zusätzliche Varianten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik (z.B. „Quantitative Easing“) zu bekämpfen. Was in den USA oder in Großbritannien geklappt haben mag, wird in der Eurozone nicht funktionieren. Es besteht gar die Gefahr einer Deflationsspirale, wie dieser Beitrag zeigt. Eingebettet werden die Argumente in die aktuelle Debatte um den „zu starken“ Euro.


Author(s):  
Friedrich Erlbacher

Article 111(1) to (3) and (5) EC By way of derogation from Article 218, the Council, either on a recommendation from the European Central Bank or on a recommendation from the Commission and after consulting the European Central Bank, in an endeavour to reach a consensus consistent with the objective of price stability, may conclude formal agreements on an exchange-rate system for the euro in relation to the currencies of third States. The Council shall act unanimously after consulting the European Parliament and in accordance with the procedure provided for in paragraph 3.


Author(s):  
Hamid Shahrestani ◽  
Nahid Kalbasi Anaraki ◽  
Farhad Ghaffari

In this article, we test the forecasting performance of empirical exchange rate models to assess in-and out-of-sample fits. The recent U.S. economic downturn has induced the Federal Reserve to decrease the federal fund rate (FFR) regularly, which has further weakened the dollar against major currencies, particularly the euro. To overcome the economic recession, the European Central Bank has also followed this trend by lowering the Euribor. Therefore, the parity power of these two currencies is basically affected by the reaction of European Central Bank against the Federal Reserve. By using the generalized method of moments (GMM), we attempt to predict the behavior of the euro-dollar exchange rates according to various empirical models. Based on different criteria which includes the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the Theil coefficient, and variance proportion, our results suggest that the interest rate parity model can predict the euro-dollar exchange rate more accurately than other structural models including a random walk, which alters the results of Meese and Rogoffs work.


2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (139) ◽  
pp. 287-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Étienne Balibar

The problem of a European Constitution is discussed at a fundamental level. In which way, can we speak about such a Constitution? Thearticle argues against the “postnational souveranism”, legitimating state against citizens. A new kind of citizenship is favoured based on extended social rights. The constitution now proposed contrarily makes the European Central Bank and its neoliberal policy to central and nearly unchangeable institution.


Author(s):  
C. Randall Henning

The regime complex for crisis finance in the euro area included the European Council, Council of the European Union, and Eurogroup in addition to the three institutions of the troika. As the member states acted largely, though not exclusively, through the council system, these bodies stood at the center of the institutional mix. This chapter reviews the institutions as a prelude to examining the dilemmas that confronted them over the course of the crises. It presents a brief review of some of the basic facts about their origins, membership, and organization. Each section then delves more deeply into these institutions’ governance and principles to understand their capabilities and strategic challenges. As a consequence of different mandates and design, the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund diverged with respect to their approach to financing, adjustment, conditionality, and debt sustainability. This divergence set the stage for institutional conflict in the country programs.


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