Home equity lines of credit and the unemployment rate: Have unemployed consumers borrowed themselves into the next financial crisis?

Abstract Recent dramatic declines in U.S. stock and housing markets have led to widespread speculation that shrinking retirement accounts and falling home equity will lead workers to delay retirement. Yet the weakness in the labor market and its impact on retirement are often overlooked. If older job seekers have difficulty finding work, they may retire earlier than expected. The net effect of the current economic crisis on retirement is thus far from clear. In this paper, we use 30 years of data from the March Current Population Survey to estimate models relating retirement decisions to fluctuations in equity, housing, and labor markets. We find that workers age 62 to 69 are responsive to the unemployment rate and to long-run fluctuations in stock market returns. Less-educated workers are more sensitive to labor market conditions and more-educated workers are more sensitive to stock market conditions. We find no evidence that workers age 55 to 61 respond to these fluctuations or that workers at any age respond to fluctuating housing markets. On net, we predict that the increase in retirement attributable to the rising unemployment rate will be almost 50 percent larger than the decrease in retirement brought about by the stock market crash.

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Bank Liquidity and Financial Performance: Evidence from Moroccan Banking Industry

Verslas teorija ir praktika ◽

10.3846/btp.2014.443 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 351-361 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

El Mehdi Ferrouhi

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Financial Performance ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Bank Performance ◽

Foreign Direct Investments ◽

External Funding ◽

Ratio Size ◽

And Performance ◽

Performance Results ◽

Macroeconomic Determinants

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between liquidity risk and financial performance of Moroccan banks and to define the determinants of bank’s performance in Morocco during the period 2001–2012. We first evaluate Moroccan banks’ liquidity positions through different liquidity and performance ratios then we apply a panel date regression to identify determinants of Moroccan banks performance. We use 4 bank’s performance ratios, 6 liquidity ratios and we analyze 5 specific determinants and 5 macroeconomic determinants of bank performance. Results show that Moroccan bank’s performance is mainly determined by 7 determinants: liquidity ratio, size of banks, logarithm of the total assets squared, external funding to total liabilities, share of own bank’s capital of the bank’s total assets, foreign direct investments, unemployment rate and the realization of the financial crisis variable. Banks’ performance depends positively on size of banks, on foreign direct investments and on the realization of the financial crisis and negatively on external funding to total liabilities, on share of own bank’s capital of the bank’s total assets and on unemployment rate while the dependence between bank performance and liquidity ratios and bank performance and logarithm of the total assets squared depend on the model used.

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Does Dodd Frank Act Affect Macroeconomic Variables?

Journal of Global Economy ◽

10.1956/jge.v12i2.434 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 93-100

Author(s):

Nahid Kalbasi Anaraki

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Private Investment ◽

Econometric Models ◽

Series Data ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Financial Regulations

The introduction of Dodd Frank Act has induced lots of controversy among economists on its macroeconomic outcomes; though some see it is a necessary piece of legislation, which can avoid future financial crisis, many think it is detrimental to private investment and employment. To see how the Act affect real macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, investment, and unemployment rate, this study implements econometric models with time series data over the period of 1990-2015 to estimate how financial regulations in general and Dodd Frank Act in particular affects the above-mentioned variables. The results of this study suggest that the Act has a negative significant impact on GDP growth, private investment, and unemployment rate. Â Â Â

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EFECTOS DEL DESEMPLEO SOBRE LOS DETERMINANTES DEL CONSUMO AGREGADO. EVIDENCIA EMPÍRICA PARA EL CASO ECUATORIANO

REVISTA CIENCIAS PEDAGÓGICAS E INNOVACIÓN ◽

10.26423/rcpi.v4i1.126 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Wendy Wasbrum Tinoco ◽

Margarita Palma Samaniego ◽

Gloria Valencia Vivas ◽

Flor Garcés

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Inverse Relationship ◽

Permanent Income ◽

Disposable Income ◽

Population Migration ◽

Consumption Growth ◽

Palabras Clave ◽

Year 2000

En el Ecuador, la tasa de desempleo en el año 2000 fue del 12%, teniendo fluctuaciones positivas de dos a tres puntos porcentuales en los siguientes cinco años, provocando una migración representativa en la población ecuatoriana, hacia Europa y EEU, repercutiendo en la inestabilidad económica y crisis financiera del Ecuador. En el presente estudio se analiza la tasa de desempleo del Ecuador para el periodo 2000-2015 y los determinantes del consumo como son: el ingreso permanente, tasa de crecimiento del consumo y el nivel de ahorro precautorio de los ecuatorianos a nivel nacional; obteniendo como resultados de la investigación la relacion inversa entre la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de crecimiento del consumo, cumpliéndose este supuesto macroeconómico básico en la economía del Ecuador. Palabras Clave: Tasa de desempleo, tasa de crecimiento del consumo, ingreso disponible y ahorro precautorio ABSTRACT Ecuador’s unemployment rate of year 2000 was 12% with positive fluctuations of two to three points on the following five years resulting on a fraction of its population migration towards Europe and USA. It was an impact of economic instability that resulted in a general financial crisis. Unemployment rate of Ecuador for the period 2000 - 2015 and determinants of consumption were analyzed in this study as well as permanent income, consumption growth rate and preventative national savings level. A basic macroeconomic scenario for Ecuador is confirmed by analyzing the inverse relationship between unemployment and consumption growth rate. Keywords: unemployment rate, consumption growth rate, disposable income and preventative savings Recibido: diciembre de 2015Aprobado: mayo 2016

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Consumer Credit & the Housing Market: An Examination of Trends in Home Equity Lines of Credit

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2011990 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Norbert J. Michel ◽

John Phillip Lajaunie ◽

Shari Lawrence ◽

Ronnie Fanguy

Keyword(s):

Housing Market ◽

Consumer Credit ◽

Home Equity ◽

Lines Of Credit

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Changes in maximum parental leave payment in Iceland and total fertility rates

Scandinavian Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1177/14034948211029059 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 140349482110290

Author(s):

Kristjana Einarsdóttir

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Total Fertility Rate ◽

Parental Leave ◽

Fertility Rate ◽

Fertility Rates ◽

Birth Rates ◽

2008 Financial Crisis ◽

The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact

Background: Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Icelandic Government reduced the maximum parental payment until 2016, when it was increased again. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the changes in the maximum parental leave payment in Iceland during 2009 and 2016 on total fertility rates and birth rates during 2002–2019. Methods: Publicly available aggregated data on yearly total fertility rates, birth rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP) and maximum parental leave payments were obtained for 2002–2019. Segmented regression analyses were used to measure the impact of changes in parental leave payment on term births for the two periods in which changes were implemented (2008–2010 and 2016–2017). Results: The decrease in maximum parental leave payment during 2008–2010 was associated with a 15% decrease in the estimated total fertility rate compared with the expected rate (−15.7%; 95% CI −22.7 to −8.7), whereas the increased payments during 2016–2017 indicated a possible 3% increase in the estimated total fertility rate (3.2%; 95% CI −29.1 to 35.5). Neither adjustment for the unemployment rate nor the GDP appeared to affect these results. The overall birth rate followed a similar trend and was most pronounced for women aged 25–34 years. Conclusions: These results suggest that total fertility rates in Iceland may have been affected by changes in the maximum parental leave payment that occurred in 2009 and 2016, although the effect of the 2008 financial crisis cannot be excluded despite adjustment for the unemployment rate and GDP.

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