Assessment оf the Economic Potential of Change in the Population of Modern Ukraine

The influence of the macroeconomic factor on the long-term trends of reproduction the population of Ukraine since independence is considered. Based on the author’s concept of “demoeconomic niche” the results of calculation of two options for estimating the “current” (per year) economic potential of population changes in Ukraine on the criteria of conditionally autonomous consumption of population and the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) were analyzed. The potential for population decline according to the first criterion is considered as a pessimistic (maximum) estimate (–30 million in 2019), according to the second - as an optimistic estimate (–2 million in 2019). The aim of the study was to perform a statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators of population reproduction in Ukraine and their relationship with certain options for assessing the economic potential of population change to determine their greater or lesser relevance to demographic and economic realities. Novelty: the assessment of the economic potential of population change is performed within the economic and demographic methodology developed and maintained by the author (based on the macroeconomic concept of “demoeconomic niche”). Research methods: to study the statistical relationship between indicators used methods of correlation and regression analysis (linear models), as well as a comparative analysis of the results of calculations with the actual dynamics of demographic and economic indicators. Calculations were made by means of PPP STATISTICA 8.0. A statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators and their relationship with the studied options for assessing the economic potential of Ukraine population change was performed to determine compliance with demographic and economic realities. All-time series of indicators (30 and 22 years) subjected to statistical analysis are translated into a single form of annual increments to ensure comparability, as a percentage of the value of the initial year of analysis. The direct linear relationship of GDP changes with the dynamics of the total fertility rate and average life expectancy at birth was recorded, and close feedback - with the dynamics of the migration balance. It is noticed that changes in GDP and the total fertility rate for the whole and rural population have cophase quasi cyclic fluctuations with a 3-4 year lag of reaction delay. It is shown that the assessment of the economic potential of population change by the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population is closely statistically dependent on macroeconomic indicators and economic dynamics. The assessment based on the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends more closely on the indicators that directly reflect the well-being of households. It turned out that the adequacy of the assessment based on the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population gradually decreases over time due to the peculiarities of the calculation algorithm, growing inaccuracy can only be neglected at intervals of +/-5 years from the base year. The adequacy of the assessment according to the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends on the correspondence to the real cost of life values for each year of the observation period, these values need to be clarified.

Prediction of neonatal and maternal index based on development and population indicators: a global ecological study

Introduction: Although worldwide maternal and neonatal mortalities have decreased, but Achieving sustainable development goals remains an unfinished agenda and global challenge. This study aimed to predict neonatal and maternal index based on development and demographic indicators. Methods: In this ecologic study, the dependent variables were Maternal mortality ratio (MMR), Neonatal mortality rate (NMR), and Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) and the independent variables were Gender gap index (GGI) and its four components, human development, life expectancy, total fertility rate, and population growth. Data conducted using international secondary data published data bases of health metrics from 2016 to 2018 in 149 countries from WHO (World Health Organization), World Economic Forum, UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). Data analysis was performed using correlation model in Stata version 14.1 software. Results: In this study, economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with MMR. Human Capital Index, Educational attainment, and Life expectancy are negatively associated with NMR. Economic participation and total fertility rate are positively and educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy are negatively associated with U5MR. Discussion: To reduce the maternal and neonatal mortality rate, it is important to pay attention to indirect causes such as equal conditions for men and women to demographic and population indices such as economic participation, educational attainment, Human Capital Index and life expectancy.

Fertility of nationals and foreigners in Spain, Italy, and Greece during and after the economic recession and refugee crisis

This article provides an overview of trends in fertility of foreign and national women in Greece, Spain, and Italy during the last decade and before the Covid pandemic. It focuses on the fertility of foreigners and compares this with that of ‘nationals’. The main analysis focuses on a period marked, firstly, by the economic recession and stagnation, and then by the recent wave of the ‘refugee crisis’. Foreigner fertility in the three south Mediterranean countries differs significantly from that of nationals, with the former having higher fertility rates and lower mean age at childbearing. However, although foreigners make a large contribution to births, their impact on period fertility (total fertility rate or TFR) is limited. At the same time, although the fertility of both groups decreased during the first years of the recession, foreigner TFRs fell faster in both absolute and relative terms in Italy and Greece. However, after 2014, the foreigner period fertility among the three countries differs as a relative stabilisation is observed in Spain and Italy, while indicators rise in Greece. This divergence is due to the various composition changes in the settled after-2014 foreigners in the three countries and the strong recovery of foreigner births in Greece (as fertility in Greece was much more affected by the recession).

Characteristics of the reproductive behaviour of the population in Iran and Russia during the Pandemic period COVID-19

Introduction. The urgent issue of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which negatively affected the demographic development of the world’s countries, is the search for new effective mechanisms for the development of demographic potential, which is not possible without appropriate justification monitoring data. The aim of the study is to analyze trends in demographic processes and assess the reproductive behavior of the population of Russia and Iran, as well as develop recommendations in the field of monitoring demographic processes, taking into account the need to study their changes as a result of the spread of COVID-19, which seems significant for determining effective directions and measures of demographic policy in terms of increasing the birth rate in Russia and Iran in the post-pandemic period. Materials and methods. The article is based on the data of the official national statistics of the countries (the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and the Statistical Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran), the international database of the UN Population Division, and sociological information. The general research period is determined by the boundaries from 2000 to 2019. To assess the determination of reproductive behaviour in Russia and Iran, general statistical methods of data analysis were used (for example, indicators of structure, dynamics, implementation of the plan), unique methods of demographic statistics (construction of age and sex pyramids of the population, total fertility rate, and others), methods of sociological research (results are presented as All-Russian sociological research “Demographic well-being of Russians”, conducted with the participation of the authors in 2019-2020 on the territory of 10 constituent entities of Russia). Results. An assessment of fertility trends in Russia and Iran is given, general and specific traits of the character and mechanisms of reproductive behaviour are identified. The substantiation of the improvement of directions and measures of demographic policy is given, taking into account the assessment of its effectiveness. In Russia, it was aimed at increasing the birth rate. In Iran, on the contrary, at decreasing it. In both countries, the policy was very effective - in Russia in 2007-2016. the birth rate for second and subsequent births increased significantly in Iran in the late 1980s-1990s. The decline in fertility was one of the largest in the world. If in Iran the birth rate is now close to the level of simple reproduction of the population (in 2017, the total fertility rate was 2.12), then in Russia, especially after the decline since 2017. In this case, it is far from this level. Conclusion. The article substantiates the need to improve scientific monitoring of the demographic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.

The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

Differences in the characteristics of long-term contraceptive device acceptors compared to short-term ones

Introduction: Long-term contraception is expected to reduce the Total Fertility Rate. However, currently, the use of short-term contraception is more dominant than the long-term (4:1). The study aims to identify differences in the characteristics of sexually active women of reproductive age using long-term versus short-term contraception.