Risk and uncertainty analysis for dam overtopping – Case study: The Doroudzan Dam, Iran

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Goodarzi ◽  
Lee Teang Shui ◽  
Mina Ziaei
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Dam Overtopping

scholarly journals Case Study: Risk Analysis by Overtopping During an Upstream Landslide in Peñitas Dam, Mexico

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Humberto J. F. Marengo ◽  
Alvaro A. Aldama
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Empirical Formulas ◽  
Explicit Equation ◽  
Systematic Risks ◽  
Natural Dam ◽  
Risk And Reliability Analysis ◽  
Dam Overtopping

Abstract. Risk and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods is often used to assess systematic risks and uncertainties. This research presents the procedure and application of risk and reliability analysis to dam overtopping (Peñitas) located downstream of a natural dam that could have failed. For the analysis are used six statistical variables and their uncertainties, the peak flood of the upstream dam, are evaluated with empirical formulas. The highest water levels of the break dam event were computed using reservoir routing with an explicit equation developed by the authors. Afterward, the overtopping risk analysis of Peñitas Dam was assessed for different stages of excavation of the natural dam that were made during making a sensitivity analysis of duration of dam break event, and also is calculated the possible upper elevation of Peñitas dam, finding that is a recommended practice measurement in similar further cases. A methodology to do an orderly and consistently analysis of risk is proposed to solve similar situations.

scholarly journals Evaluation dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 9757-9796 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Goodarzi ◽  
M. Mirzaei ◽  
L. T. Shui ◽  
M. Ziaei
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Maximum Height ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Bivariate Frequency Analysis ◽  
Dam Overtopping

Abstract. There is a growing tendency to assess the safety levels of existing dams based on risk and uncertainty analysis using mathematical and statistical methods. This research presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses by applying Gumbel logistic distribution for the Doroudzan earth-fill dam in south of Iran. The bivariate frequency analysis resulted in six inflow hydrographs with a joint return period of 100-yr. The overtopping risks were computed for all of those hydrographs considering quantile of flood peak discharge (in particular 100-yr), initial depth of water in the reservoir, and discharge coefficient of spillway as uncertain variables. The maximum height of the water, as most important factor in the overtopping analysis, was evaluated using reservoir routing and the Monte Carlo and Latin hypercube techniques were applied for uncertainty analysis. Finally, the achieved results using both univariate and bivariate frequency analysis have been compared to show the significance of bivariate analyses on dam overtopping.

Integrated Modeling of the Furrial Field Asset applying risk and uncertainty analysis for the decision taking

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liz Mildred Acosta ◽  
Jose Guevara Jimenez ◽  
Anelena Guedez ◽  
Edel Ledezmae ◽  
Joaquin Bello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Taking
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