Assessing the Role of Digital Finance on Shadow Economy and Financial Instability: An Empirical Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries

The advancement in fintech technological development in emerging countries has accelerated the role of digital finance in economic development. Digital finance assists in financial inclusion; however, it may also increase the chances of financial instability due to systematic risks. Emerging countries are also in the clutches of shadow economic growth, which reduces taxable income revenue and creates pressure on financial inclusion prospects. The current study attempts to measure the impact of digital finance on the shadow economic growth and financial stability among the selected South Asian emerging countries. We have used the CUP-FM and CUP-BC estimation methods to measure the above relationship on two model frameworks from 2004 to 2018, with the former measuring the influence of digital finance on the shadow economy and the latter examining the relationship between digital finance and financial stability. In addition, the second-generation unit root test, and the Westerlund cointegration analysis are also employed to confirm the stationarity and cointegration among the variables. The result of the Westerlund’s cointegration confirms a long cointegration between the explanatory and outcome variables. Furthermore, the long-run estimation results conclude that an increase in digital finance helps in reducing the growth of the shadow economy among the selected sample countries. However, it also increases the likelihood of systematic risks and increases financial instability. The study also reveals that the control variables like unemployment and industrial productivity also have a significant influence on financial stability and the shadow economy. The findings will assist readers in comprehending how digital finance influences the shadow economy and promotes financial inclusion and stability in emerging nations.

The Effects of ERM Adoption on European Insurance Firms Performance and Risks

We investigate the effects of adopting enterprise risk management (ERM) on the performance and risks of European publicly listed insurance firms. Using a dataset for 24 years, we report new results which show that ERM adopters realize significant ERM premiums after controlling for other covariates and endogeneity. Several firm characteristics such as size, opacity, and the choice of external monitoring agents such as auditors are significant determinants of adopting ERM. We fill a gap in the literature by assessing the impact of adopting ERM on firm risks and report new findings for our sample, which show that ERM adopters effectively reduce firm total and systematic risks and, to a greater extent, idiosyncratic risk. Firm-level variables such as size, leverage, dividend payments events, and diversification impact firm total risk. Insurers use corporate events such as dividend payments to signal information about reducing risk. Industry and international diversification reduce firm total risk and idiosyncratic risk, respectively.

Analysis of Financial Fundamental Factors and Systematic Risks on Stock Prices of Pharmaceutical Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2010-2019

The study aims to analyze fundamental financial factors and systematic risks to the share prices of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia stock exchange. This study uses the company's share price as a dependent variable and returns on Return on Equity (ROE), Earning Per Share (EPS), Price Earning Ratio (PER), Price to Book Value (PBV), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Beta stock as independent variables. Samples were taken as many as nine pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2010-2019. The data used in the financial statements of each sample company, published through www.IDX.co.id and www.financeyahoo.com. The analysis method used in this study is a quantitative method, with classic assumption testing and statistical analysis that is multiple linear regression analysis using a standard effect model. The sampling method used is saturated sampling. The analysis results showed that the financial ratio consisting of ROE, DER, and the Beta stock had a negative effect and did not significantly affect the stock price. EPS has a negative and significant effect on the stock price, while PER and PBV have a positive and insignificant effect on the stock price. Keywords: Return on Equity (ROE), Earning Per Share (EPS), Price Earning Ratio (PER), Price to Book Value (PBV), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Beta Stock and Stock Price.

Relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility Performance and Systematic Risk—A Case Study of A-share Listed Chinese Companies

Taking the A-share listed companies in the 2018-2019 Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) rating by the China Alliance of Social Value Investment (CASVI) as samples, we analyze the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance on the current systematic risk and its deferred effect. By using quantile regression and the ordinary least squares (OLS) for cross-comparison, we find that 1) for high-risk companies, the current performance of CSR can help reduce systematic risks, and 2) for low-risk companies, the more progress they make in CSR performance but do not disclose social responsibility information according to the global reporting initiative (GRI) guideline, the more systematic risks they will encounter; if they proactively disclose such reports, however, they may reduce systematic risks. Based on our findings, we propose the following measures: 1) the government should properly guide economic development; 2) companies should actively disclose CSR reports so as to achieve a win-win result for both the companies and their stakeholders; 3) investors should consult social responsibility information to make rigorous investment plans, before making investment decisions.

Securing the sea: ecosystem-based adaptation and the biopolitics of insuring nature's rents

With the emergence of the so-called Blue Economy, various conservation finance mechanisms and financial structures are being proposed as a means of simultaneously securing marine biodiversity and profit-making. A novel approach that is being applied within this new conservation finance frontier is the integration of ecosystem-based adaptation and insurance. By synthesizing recent literatures in political ecology on the notion of rent and the biopolitics of nature, this article explores how the integration of ecosystem-based adaptation and insurance can be seen as a technique that is mobilized for governing ecosystem rents biopolitically. The article urges political ecologists to pay attention to how biopolitics and governance of rents intersect in market-based environmental governance. While surveying the breadth of projects that involves both adaptation and insurance, I pay particular attention to a parametric coral reef insurance that was recently introduced in the Mexican state Quintana Roo. Such a project, this article argues, involves reconceptualizing the coral reef as an infrastructure that provides benefits – ultimately rents – to the local tourist industry and indirectly the state, but this coral infrastructure is itself in need of being protected through insurance as a biopolitical measure that can ensure the future life of the coral reef by rendering calculable uncertain, future climate threats to the reef. By reconceptualizing ecosystems as infrastructure that can be insured, the notion of ecosystem-based adaptation operationalizes otherwise systematic risks posed by climate change and biodiversity loss on a local scale. Finally, I highlight some of the complications that are involved when insurance is used as a biopolitical means of making nature live.

International Real Estate Review

Ambrose et al. (2007) find significant evidence of information spillover effects between index real estate investment trusts (REITs) and nonindex REITs in the US markets using the inclusion of REITs into the S&P general market indices in an event study. This study, however, examines the effects of REIT index inclusion events by using non-index real estate operating company (REOC) returns in the US and Singapore. The study finds that REOC returns are more correlated with the general market index returns after REIT index inclusion events, but the spillover effects are smaller for REOCs in Singapore. The spillover effects of the REIT inclusion events are larger on non-index REITs than non-index REOCs in the US. When examining REIT inclusion events in Singapore, we find evidence of increases in betas only in the REIT market, but the changes in REOC betas are insignificant. However, we find that the REIT index inclusions significantly reduce the systematic risks of REOCs that sponsor the index REITs.

Systematic risk and performance of stock market in Kenya

Stock prices in Kenya have been experiencing drastic volatility over the years. In the year 2015 alone, the value of the listed companies shrunk by about 2.5 billion USD, representing about 25% of the national government annual budget. The performance of the stock market is an important proxy of a country’s economic environment. Rational investors constantly value and revise their portfolio composition so as to maximize their wealth. Whereas effectively diversified portfolio minimizes the unsystematic risk, systematic risks cannot be managed by simple diversification. Investors, therefore, need to understand the effect of these systematic risks on the stock performance. The study sought to determine the relationship between systematic risk factors using Inflation and interest rates and the performance of the stock market in Kenya. The study adopted a positivist philosophy and employed a correlation research design. The study targeted all the stock listed in the Nairobi Securities exchange. The study was underpinned by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Arbitrage Pricing theory, and used integration analysis to establish the relationships between the variables of the study. The study found a significant long-run positive relationship between interest rate, inflation, and performance of the stock market in Kenya. Investment firms, the financial analyst should use past data on 91 Treasury bills rate and Inflation, to predict the future performance of stock exchange for the benefit of investors.

Measuring risk exposure in the banking sectors: evidence from Gulf Cooperation countries

Purpose Using capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Z-risk index based on weekly data, this study aims to estimate yearly unsystematic, total, three systematic and insolvency risks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for the period 2010–2018. The findings of CAPM show positive systematic market risk exposure in all GCC countries for all years, which support the contribution of stock markets to bank prices and returns. The mixed signs of systematic interest rate and exchange rate risks in GCC countries provide hedging opportunities, diversification strategies and regional cooperation, which help risk managers to hedge and stabilize their portfolios against interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, it is necessary that managers and policymakers develop a monitoring system on factors affecting bank insolvency risks to avoid bankruptcies and insolvencies. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the three-factor CAPM and Z-risk index to measure six types of risks. The CAPM uses market information to estimate the sensitivity of banks to the fluctuations of equity markets, debt markets and foreign exchange markets. Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Treynor (1965) developed a single-factor CAPM and the coefficient of the model was called systematic market risk. The single-factor CAPM highlights stock markets as the only non-diversifiable source of systematic risks, whereas Stone (1974) and Jorion (1990) highlighted interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations as the other types of non-diversifiable systematic risks. The following functional form in equation (1) estimates five types of risks using CAPM. Findings The findings of CAPM show positive systematic market risk exposure in all GCC countries for all years, which support the contribution of stock markets to bank prices and returns based on CAPM theory. The mixed signs of systematic interest rate and exchange rate risks in GCC countries support hedging opportunities and diversification strategies which may help risk managers to hedge and stabilize their portfolios against the fluctuations of interest rate and exchange rate. Although, this policy may decrease the profits of banking sectors but at the same time it would stabilize the portfolios and prevent bankruptcies and big losses because of the fluctuations of interest rate. Moreover, a bank has a better chance to have more liquidity position during financial crises because of the diversifications into different regional markets. Research limitations/implications Therefore, this study contributes to the existing literature by using risk measurement by a three-factor CAPM and the Z-risk index as discussed further in methodology. Originality/value It is necessary that managers and policymakers develop a monitoring system on factors affecting bank insolvency risks to avoid bankruptcies and insolvencies.