Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

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Bias Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Precipitation Output Gives the Best Estimates of Precipitation in Himalayan Catchments

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2019jd030804 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 124 (24) ◽

pp. 14220-14239 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Daniel Bannister ◽

Andrew Orr ◽

Sanjay K. Jain ◽

Ian P. Holman ◽

Andrea Momblanch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Precipitation ◽

Best Estimates

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High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (10) ◽

pp. 3721-3739 ◽

Cited By ~ 81

Author(s):

Y. Tramblay ◽

D. Ruelland ◽

S. Somot ◽

R. Bouaicha ◽

E. Servat

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Impact Studies ◽

Hydrological Impact ◽

Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

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Obtaining the correct sea surface temperature: bias correction of regional climate model data for the Mediterranean Sea

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-016-3049-z ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 51 (3) ◽

pp. 1095-1117 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Diego Macias ◽

Elisa Garcia-Gorriz ◽

Alessandro Dosio ◽

Adolf Stips ◽

Klaus Keuler

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Model Data ◽

Temperature Bias

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Pengaruh koreksi bias dan metode ensemble pada data curah hujan dari empat model luaran Regional Climate Model (RCM) CORDEX-SEA di Sumatera

Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) ◽

10.29244/jpsl.11.1.49-56 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 49-56

Author(s):

Irza Arnita Nur ◽

Rahmat Hidayat ◽

Arnida Lailatul Latifah ◽

Misnawati

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Weather Data ◽

Projection Data ◽

Model Data ◽

Rcp 8.5

Drought is a natural disaster that occurs slowly and lasts longer until the wet season occurred. Drought occurred in expected time, so that preparations and preparedness can be made in dealing with drought disasters. Therefore, we need an overview of future drought events (or projections).In this study, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as drought index. The occurrence of drought is closely related to weather factors and occurs repeatedly. Time-series weather data is needed to know the time-series weather conditions. Problems with data that often occur can be overcome by using numerical climate modeling which is currently widely used. Regional Climate Model (RCM) is a climate model that can be used to build long-term climate data, both time-series and projection data. The results showed RCM model data required bias correction in order to reduce bias in the CORDEX RCM model data. RCM rainfall models before correction were still biased. Thus, bias correction is needed to reduce bias in models data. Time series obtained from SPI baseline data for 2000-2005 in Lampung and West Sumatra provinces showed SPI value which smaller than the projection SPI value in 2021-2030. While SPI time series with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results. SPI with RCP 8.5 scenario have more negative value so that drought occurred more often than RCP 4.5. The negative SPI index that often occured in RCP 8.5 scenario appeared to be in RCM IPSL and MPI models year 2025-2030.

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