Long-term rainfall prediction using atmospheric synoptic patterns in semi-arid climates with statistical and machine learning methods

2020 ◽  
Vol 586 ◽  
pp. 124789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Diez-Sierra ◽  
Manuel del Jesus
Author(s):  
Hossein Sangrody ◽  
Ning Zhou ◽  
Salih Tutun ◽  
Benyamin Khorramdel ◽  
Mahdi Motalleb ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (15) ◽  
pp. 3289-3302 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. Wardenaar ◽  
H. M. van Loo ◽  
T. Cai ◽  
M. Fava ◽  
M. J. Gruber ◽  
...  

Background.Although variation in the long-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing symptom subtype distinctions, recent research suggests that prediction can be improved by using machine learning methods. However, it is not known whether these distinctions can be refined by added information about co-morbid conditions. The current report presents results on this question.Method.Data came from 8261 respondents with lifetime DSM-IV MDD in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Outcomes included four retrospectively reported measures of persistence/severity of course (years in episode; years in chronic episodes; hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Machine learning methods (regression tree analysis; lasso, ridge and elastic net penalized regression) followed by k-means cluster analysis were used to augment previously detected subtypes with information about prior co-morbidity to predict these outcomes.Results.Predicted values were strongly correlated across outcomes. Cluster analysis of predicted values found three clusters with consistently high, intermediate or low values. The high-risk cluster (32.4% of cases) accounted for 56.6–72.9% of high persistence, high chronicity, hospitalization and disability. This high-risk cluster had both higher sensitivity and likelihood ratio positive (LR+; relative proportions of cases in the high-risk cluster versus other clusters having the adverse outcomes) than in a parallel analysis that excluded measures of co-morbidity as predictors.Conclusions.Although the results using the retrospective data reported here suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made with machine learning and clustering across multiple indicators of illness persistence/severity, replication with prospective data is needed to confirm this preliminary conclusion.


Author(s):  
Akshay Rajendra Naik ◽  
A. V. Deorankar ◽  
P. B. Ambhore

Rainfall prediction is useful for all people for decision making in all fields, such as out door gamming, farming, traveling, and factory and for other activities. We studied various methods for rainfall prediction such as machine learning and neural networks. There is various machine learning algorithms are used in previous existing methods such as naïve byes, support vector machines, random forest, decision trees, and ensemble learning methods. We used deep neural network for rainfall prediction, and for optimization of deep neural network Adam optimizer is used for setting modal parameters, as a result our method gives better results as compare to other machine learning methods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Yu ◽  
Jian Deng ◽  
Ran Nathan ◽  
Max Kröschel ◽  
Sasha Pekarsky ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Our understanding of movement patterns and behaviours of wildlife has advanced greatly through the use of improved tracking technologies, including application of accelerometry (ACC) across a wide range of taxa. However, most ACC studies either use intermittent sampling that hinders continuity or continuous data logging relying on tracker retrieval for data downloading which is not applicable for long term study. To allow long-term, fine-scale behavioural research, we evaluated a range of machine learning methods for their suitability for continuous on-board classification of ACC data into behaviour categories prior to data transmission. Methods We tested six supervised machine learning methods, including linear discriminant analysis (LDA), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to classify behaviour using ACC data from three bird species (white stork Ciconia ciconia, griffon vulture Gyps fulvus and common crane Grus grus) and two mammals (dairy cow Bos taurus and roe deer Capreolus capreolus). Results Using a range of quality criteria, SVM, ANN, RF and XGBoost performed well in determining behaviour from ACC data and their good performance appeared little affected when greatly reducing the number of input features for model training. On-board runtime and storage-requirement tests showed that notably ANN, RF and XGBoost would make suitable on-board classifiers. Conclusions Our identification of using feature reduction in combination with ANN, RF and XGBoost as suitable methods for on-board behavioural classification of continuous ACC data has considerable potential to benefit movement ecology and behavioural research, wildlife conservation and livestock husbandry.


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