Jumping to conclusions in persistent pain using a somatosensory modification of the beads task

Abstract Background Psychosis is associated with a reasoning bias, which manifests as a tendency to ‘jump to conclusions’. We examined this bias in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) and investigated its relationship with their clinical outcomes. Methods In total, 303 CHR subjects and 57 healthy controls (HC) were included. Both groups were assessed at baseline, and after 1 and 2 years. A ‘beads’ task was used to assess reasoning bias. Symptoms and level of functioning were assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States scale (CAARMS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), respectively. During follow up, 58 (16.1%) of the CHR group developed psychosis (CHR-T), and 245 did not (CHR-NT). Logistic regressions, multilevel mixed models, and Cox regression were used to analyse the relationship between reasoning bias and transition to psychosis and level of functioning, at each time point. Results There was no association between reasoning bias at baseline and the subsequent onset of psychosis. However, when assessed after the transition to psychosis, CHR-T participants showed a greater tendency to jump to conclusions than CHR-NT and HC participants (55, 17, 17%; χ2 = 8.13, p = 0.012). There was a significant association between jumping to conclusions (JTC) at baseline and a reduced level of functioning at 2-year follow-up in the CHR group after adjusting for transition, gender, ethnicity, age, and IQ. Conclusions In CHR participants, JTC at baseline was associated with adverse functioning at the follow-up. Interventions designed to improve JTC could be beneficial in the CHR population.

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Jumping To Conclusions, General Intelligence, And Psychosis Liability: Findings From The Multi-Centre EU-GEI Case-Control Study

10.1101/634352 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Giada Tripoli ◽

Diego Quattrone ◽

Laura Ferraro ◽

Charlotte Gayer-Anderson ◽

Victoria Rodriguez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Probabilistic Reasoning ◽

Cognitive Biases ◽

Population Based ◽

Case Control ◽

Risk Scores ◽

Polygenic Risk Score ◽

General Intelligence ◽

Polygenic Risk ◽

Jumping To Conclusions ◽

Beads Task

AbstractBackgroundThe “jumping to conclusions” (JTC) bias is associated with both psychosis and general cognition but their relationship is unclear. In this study, we set out to clarify the relationship between the JTC bias, IQ, psychosis and polygenic liability to schizophrenia and IQ.Methods817 FEP patients and 1294 population-based controls completed assessments of general intelligence (IQ), and JTC (assessed by the number of beads drawn on the probabilistic reasoning “beads” task) and provided blood or saliva samples from which we extracted DNA and computed polygenic risk scores for IQ and schizophrenia.ResultsThe estimated proportion of the total effect of case/control differences on JTC mediated by IQ was 79%. Schizophrenia Polygenic Risk Score (SZ PRS) was non-significantly associated with a higher number of beads drawn (B= 0.47, 95% CI −0.21 to 1.16, p=0.17); whereas IQ PRS (B=0.51, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.76, p<0.001) significantly predicted the number of beads drawn, and was thus associated with reduced JTC bias. The JTC was more strongly associated with higher level of psychotic-like experiences (PLE) in controls, including after controlling for IQ (B= −1.7, 95% CI −2.8 to −0.5, p=0.006), but did not relate to delusions in patients.Conclusionsthe JTC reasoning bias in psychosis is not a specific cognitive deficit but is rather a manifestation or consequence, of general cognitive impairment. Whereas, in the general population, the JTC bias is related to psychotic-like experiences, independent of IQ. The work has potential to inform interventions targeting cognitive biases in early psychosis.

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Jumping to conclusions at first onset of psychosis predicts longer admissions, more compulsory admissions and police involvement over the next 4 years: the GAP study

Psychological Medicine ◽

10.1017/s0033291718003197 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 49 (13) ◽

pp. 2256-2266 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Victoria Rodriguez ◽

Olesya Ajnakina ◽

Simona A. Stilo ◽

Valeria Mondelli ◽

Tiago Reis Marques ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Probabilistic Reasoning ◽

Research Centre ◽

First Episode ◽

Symptom Dimensions ◽

Jumping To Conclusions ◽

Syndrome Scale ◽

First Onset ◽

Using Data ◽

Beads Task

AbstractBackgroundJumping to conclusions (JTC), which is the proneness to require less information before forming beliefs or making a decision, has been related to formation and maintenance of delusions. Using data from the National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre Genetics and Psychosis (GAP) case–control study of first-episode psychosis (FEP), we set out to test whether the presence of JTC would predict poor clinical outcome at 4 years.MethodsOne-hundred and twenty-three FEP patients were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and the probabilistic reasoning ‘Beads’ Task at the time of recruitment. The sample was split into two groups based on the presence of JTC bias. Follow-up data over an average of 4 years were obtained concerning clinical course and outcomes (remission, intervention of police, use of involuntary treatment – the Mental Health Act (MHA) – and inpatient days).ResultsFEP who presented JTC at baseline were more likely during the follow-up period to be detained under the MHA [adjusted OR 15.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.92–83.54, p = 0.001], require intervention by the police (adjusted OR 14.95, 95% CI 2.68–83.34, p = 0.002) and have longer admissions (adjusted IRR = 5.03, 95% CI 1.91–13.24, p = 0.001). These associations were not accounted for by socio-demographic variables, IQ and symptom dimensions.ConclusionsJTC in FEP is associated with poorer outcome as indicated and defined by more compulsion police intervention and longer periods of admission. Our findings raise the question of whether the implementation of specific interventions to reduce JTC, such as Metacognition Training, may be a useful addition in early psychosis intervention programmes.

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Beads task vs. box task: The specificity of the jumping to conclusions bias

Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry ◽

10.1016/j.jbtep.2016.07.017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 56 ◽

pp. 42-50 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Ryan P. Balzan ◽

Rachel Ephraums ◽

Paul Delfabbro ◽

Christina Andreou

Keyword(s):

Jumping To Conclusions ◽

Beads Task

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Delusional Ideation and Data Quality

10.31234/osf.io/ntsve ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Justin Sulik ◽

Robert M Ross ◽

Ryan Balzan ◽

Ryan McKay

Keyword(s):

General Population ◽

Data Quality ◽

Population Study ◽

Cognitive Biases ◽

Continuum Models ◽

General Population Study ◽

Jumping To Conclusions ◽

Delusional Ideation ◽

Large N ◽

Beads Task

According to continuum models of psychosis, cognitive biases contribute to delusional ideation in the general population. In a large (N = 1002) pre-registered general population study, we examine key specific predictions of such models; in particular, the hypotheses that delusional ideation in the general population is predicted by the Jumping to Conclusions bias (JTC), Over-adjustment, the Bias Against Disconfirm-ing Evidence (BADE), and the Liberal Acceptance bias (LA). Crucially, we include explicit indices of data quality, and incorporate a new, animated Beads Task which overcomes known problems with this instrument. Our results initially appear to replicate several classic findings concerning the relationships between delusional ideation and the aforementioned cognitive biases: Delusional ideation predicted JTC, overadjustment, and BADE. Importantly, however, we demonstrate that many of these classic findings are either severely diminished — or disappear entirely — when inattentive participants are removed from the analyses. These findings highlight crucial issues that need to be addressed to rigorously test continuum models of psychosis.

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