Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)

2021 ◽  
pp. 105888
Author(s):  
Kwang-Jing Yii ◽  
Chai-Thing Tan ◽  
Wing-Ken Ho ◽  
Xiao-Hui Kwan ◽  
Feng-Ting Shim Nerissa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Land Availability ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674791989890
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study explores the relationship between consumer confidence, household private consumer expenditure and other related macroeconomic financial variables for Brazil, a major, upper middle, income, Latin American country. It is widely discussed in the literature that the consumer confidence is an initial guide to the future behaviour of the economy based on the consumption path. Thus, a rise in the confidence of the consumer would lead to rising household consumption behaviour, which would percolate to accelerate economic growth. The study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on private consumer spending, taking into consideration the significance of other financial variables, namely the rate of interest, stock market index, the exchange rate, inflation and unemployment trends. The study employs monthly data from the 4th month of 1995 to the 10th month of 2018. The bounds test of the NARDL suggests the presence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The model estimation affirms the presence of asymmetries in the behaviour of the major explanatory variables. In the short run, there are both positive and negative asymmetric impacts of consumer confidence index (CCI) on consumer expenditure, while the rate of interest has only negative asymmetries. In the long run, unemployment changes, stock market fluctuations, interest rate variation and alterations in the CCI shape the behaviour of consumer spending at the household level in Brazil. So, the consumers are able to perceive the signalling of the future behaviour of the market and contribute through consumption spending. JEL: C22; D12; E21; O54

Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662091000
Author(s):  
Jitendra Sharma ◽  
Subrata Kumar Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Desirable Outcome ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Reference Country

This article explores the relationship between the arrival of tourists and its impact on tourism-related employment. Considering the impact of tourist arrival on employment being asymmetric, we have analyzed the relationship using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method proposed by Shin et al. The article analyzed how arrivals impact on employment taking Sri Lanka as a reference country and have used annual data of the variables obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. It is found that for an increase in the tourist arrival by 1000, the tourism-related job employment rises by 83.8. On the contrary, with the decline in tourist arrival by the same number, the corresponding reduction in job employment is 29.8. The relatively lower reduction in employment with the fall of tourist arrival provides relative stability of employment to the tourism workforce and is a socially desirable outcome.

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