Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662091000
Author(s):  
Jitendra Sharma ◽  
Subrata Kumar Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Desirable Outcome ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Reference Country

This article explores the relationship between the arrival of tourists and its impact on tourism-related employment. Considering the impact of tourist arrival on employment being asymmetric, we have analyzed the relationship using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method proposed by Shin et al. The article analyzed how arrivals impact on employment taking Sri Lanka as a reference country and have used annual data of the variables obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. It is found that for an increase in the tourist arrival by 1000, the tourism-related job employment rises by 83.8. On the contrary, with the decline in tourist arrival by the same number, the corresponding reduction in job employment is 29.8. The relatively lower reduction in employment with the fall of tourist arrival provides relative stability of employment to the tourism workforce and is a socially desirable outcome.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals Nexus between Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Odisha, India: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
Pratap Kumar Jena
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in agricultural research as it is observed that the climate change has unfavorably distressed the agricultural production in different regions in India. Therefore, the present study has empirically examined the relationship between climate change and agricultural production in the selected districts of Odisha, India using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model over the period 1993 to 2019. The study found that the climate variables have adversely affected the crops production in the districts of Odisha. In order to minimize the impact of climate change on crops production in the state, there must have implementation of various policies and adaptive strategies by the government and farmers.

scholarly journals A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
David Allen ◽  
Michael McAleer
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The paper features an examination of the link between the behaviour of the FTSE 100 and S&P500 Indexes in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The attraction of NARDL is that it represents the simplest method available of modelling combined short- and long-run asymmetries. The bounds testing framework adopted means that it can be applied to stationary and non-stationary time series vectors, or combinations of both. The data comprise a daily FTSE adjusted price series, commencing in April 2009 and terminating in March 2021, and a corresponding daily S&P500 Index adjusted-price series obtained from Yahoo Finance. The data period includes all the gyrations caused by the Brexit vote in the UK, beginning with the vote to leave in 2016 and culminating in the actual agreement to withdraw in January 2020. It was then followed by the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 from the beginning of 2020. The results of the analysis suggest that movements in the contemporaneous levels of daily S&P500 Index levels have very significant effects on the behaviour of the levels of the daily FTSE 100 Index. They also suggest that negative movements have larger impacts than do positive movements in S&P500 levels, and that long-term multiplier impacts take about 10 days to take effect. These effects are supported by the results of quantile regression analysis. A key result is that weak form market efficiency does not apply in the second period.

scholarly journals Symmetric and asymmetric effects of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria: Evidence from linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 2059-2078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip C Omoke ◽  
Silva Opuala-Charles ◽  
Chinazaekpere Nwani
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This study examines the impact of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria over the period 1971–2014. Income per capita, energy consumption, exchange rate and urbanization are incorporated in the analysis. The empirical analysis based on linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag techniques provides evidence of long-run relationship among the variables in Nigeria. The results in general show that financial development has significant asymmetric effects on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria. Both short-run and long-run analyses show that the impact of positive changes in financial development on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly different from that of negative changes. The results suggest that in Nigeria positive shocks in financial development have significant reducing effect on carbon dioxide emissions, while negative shocks in financial development have significant increasing effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The empirical results also show that the response of carbon dioxide emissions to negative shocks in financial development is stronger. Based on these findings, this study concludes that mitigation policies would need to incorporate strategies to strengthen the depth of financial intermediation in the Nigerian economy.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real exchange rate and net FDI inflows in Mauritius

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok Babubudjnauth ◽  
Boopendra Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Series Methodology ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of real exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive distributed lag time series methodology is used. Findings Real exchange rate depreciation enhances inflows of FDI in both the short and long run. Originality/value The research is original, and data used are from official sources.

scholarly journals Are Cryptocurrencies a Backstop for the Stock Market in a COVID-19-Led Financial Crisis? Evidence from the NARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Ahmed Jeribi ◽  
Sangram Keshari Jena ◽  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study investigates the safe haven properties and sustainability of the top five cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Monero, and Ripple) and gold for BRICS stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis period from 31 January 2020 to 17 September 2020 in comparison to the precrisis period from 1 January 2016 to 30 January 2020, in a nonlinear and asymmetric framework using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. Our results show that the relationship dynamics of stock market and cryptocurrency returns both in the short and long run are changing during the COVID-19 crisis period, which justifies our study using the nonlinear and asymmetric model. As far as a sustainable safe haven is concerned, Dash and Ripple are found to be a safe haven for all the five markets before the pandemic. However, all five cryptocurrencies are found to be a safe haven for three emerging markets, such as Brazil, China, and Russia, during the financial crisis. In a comparative framework, gold is found to be a suitable safe haven only for Brazil and Russia. The results have implications for index fund managers of BRICS markets to include Dash and Ripple in their portfolio as safe haven assets to protect its value during a stock market crisis.

The Impact of R&D on Skill-specific Employment Rates in the UK and France

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Amin Sokhanvar ◽  
Serhan Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Dominant Form ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
High Skill

We apply nonlinear Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL)-based methodologies to examine the nature of the effects of changes in R&D (intensity) on the employment rates of ‘high-skill’, ‘medium-skill’ and ‘low-skill’ labour and also whether or not these effects are symmetric. The empirical results based on the annual data for the period of 1991–2017 have suggested that while increased R&D has favourable effects on the employment rate of ‘high-skill’ labour in France, it has a negative impact on this type of labour in the UK. On the other hand, while the given increase in R&D has been found to be negatively affecting the employment rates of both ‘low-skill’ and ‘medium-skill’ labour in France, it has no impact on the employment rates of these two types of labour in the UK. These results may suggest that the dominant form of technological change in France is possibly a combination of ‘low-skill automation’ and ‘task-based’ whereby new technologies are simultaneously leading to replacement of ‘low-skill’ and ‘medium-skill’ labour by machines and the creation of new tasks (jobs) in which ‘high-skill’ labour has a comparative advantage. In the UK, the dominant form of new technologies resulting from additional R&D efforts seems to be in the form of ‘high-skill automation’ whereby ‘Robotics and Artificial Intelligence’ kind of new technologies might be causing replacement of ‘high-skill’ labour with machines. These results suggest that new technologies might be exerting adverse effects on income distribution in different ways in the UK and France.

Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in trade flows sustainability: Serbia and Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Mile Bošnjak
Keyword(s):  
Trade Flows ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Form ◽  
Sustainable Equilibrium ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

AbstractThe research examines the sustainability of trade flows for two European post-communist economies: Serbia and Romania. We analysed two nonlinear forms of the relationship between exports and imports that cannot be explained by frequently applied linear model specifications. Newly developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach revealed the asymmetric and nonlinear long-run equilibrium between Serbian exports and imports. Nonlinearity tests indicated and the SETAR model specification confirmed threshold nonlinearity form in the Serbian trade flows pattern. Serbian trade flows still approach its sustainable equilibrium but the development pattern is promising. The results for Romania revealed another nonlinear form of the relationship between exports and imports, indicating a dependent cointegration. The paper provides robust results and supports the hypothesis that the relationship between exports and imports can be nonlinear and symmetric.

Does energy efficiency affect economic growth? Evidence from aggregate and disaggregate levels

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 983-1006
Author(s):  
You-How Go ◽  
Lin-Sea Lau ◽  
Kwang-Jing Yii ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Relationship

This paper empirically examines the relationship between energy efficiency, CO2 emissions, foreign direct investment, exports, and real gross domestic product at both aggregate and disaggregate levels in Malaysia based on an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The annual data for the period of 1971–2013 are employed. The results indicate that energy efficiency Granger causes economic growth at the aggregate level, but not in each of the three main sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) of the economy. Another important finding of the study is that the export-led growth hypothesis is found to be valid in Malaysia at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels. The results of our study also confirm the fact that CO2 emissions do affect the overall economic performance and growth in all sectors, except for the primary sector. This finding implies that pollution from both secondary and tertiary sectors has led to economic growth in Malaysia. Moreover, it is also discovered that foreign direct investment does not have a significant impact on economic growth in Malaysia. The results of this study are essential for policymakers of Malaysia in designing appropriate policies in each sector that can lead to robust growth in the country. In addition to focusing on enhancing energy efficiency and promoting foreign direct investment, the policymakers should also start to look for alternative strategies to ensure long-term economic growth in the country.

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