Hydro-meteorological drought risk assessment using linear and nonlinear multivariate methods

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

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A 3D Copula Method for the Impact and Risk Assessment of Drought Disaster and an Example Application

Frontiers in Physics ◽

10.3389/fphy.2021.656253 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Hou ◽

Pengcheng Yan ◽

Guolin Feng ◽

Dongdong Zuo

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Theory And Practice ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Risk Assessments ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Drought Event ◽

Drought Duration ◽

Drought Intensity ◽

The Impact

Droughts have more impact on crops than any other natural disaster. Therefore, drought risk assessments, especially quantitative drought risk assessments, are significant in order to understand and reduce the negative impacts associated with droughts, and a quantitative risk assessment includes estimating the probability and consequences of hazards. In order to achieve this goal, we built a model based on the three-dimensional (3D) Copula function for the assessment of the proportion of affected farmland areas (PAFA) based on the idea of internally combining the drought duration, drought intensity, and drought impact. This model achieves the “internal combination” of drought characteristics and drought impacts rather than an “external combination.” The results of this model are not only able to provide the impacts at different levels that a drought event (drought duration and drought intensity) may cause, but are also able to show the occurrence probability of impact at each particular level. We took Huize County and Mengzi County in Yunnan Province as application examples based on the meteorological drought index (SPI), and the results showed that the PAFAs obtained by the method proposed in this paper were basically consistent with the actual PAFAs in the two counties. Moreover, due to the meteorological drought always occurring before an agricultural drought, we can get SPI predictions for the next month or months and can further obtain more abundant information on a drought warning and its impact. Therefore, the method proposed in this paper has values both on theory and practice.

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