Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future

2017 ◽  
Vol 601-602 ◽  
pp. 1147-1159 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Pisano ◽  
V. Zumpano ◽  
Ž. Malek ◽  
C.M. Rosskopf ◽  
M. Parise
Author(s):  
Philip Mzava ◽  
Patrick Valimba ◽  
Joel Nobert

Abstract Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past.


2014 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Promper ◽  
A. Puissant ◽  
J.-P. Malet ◽  
T. Glade

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukari Suzuki-Ohno ◽  
Jun Yokoyama ◽  
Tohru Nakashizuka ◽  
Masakado Kawata

AbstractWild bee decline has been reported worldwide. Some bumblebee species (Bombus spp.) have declined in Europe and North America, and their ranges have shrunk due to climate and land cover changes. In countries with limited historical and current occurrence data, it is often difficult to investigate bumblebee range shifts. Here we estimated the past/present distributions of six major bumblebee species in Japan with species distribution modeling using current occurrence data and past/present climate and land cover data. The differences identified between estimated past and present distributions indicate possible range shifts. The estimated ranges of B. diversus, B. hypocrita, B. ignitus, B. honshuensis, and B. beaticola shrank over the past 26 years, but that of B. ardens expanded. The lower altitudinal limits of the estimated ranges became higher as temperature increased. When focusing on the effects of land cover change, the estimated range of B. diversus slightly shrank due to an increase in forest area. Such increase in forest area may result from the abandonment of agricultural lands and the extension of the rotation time of planted coniferous forests and secondary forests. Managing old planted coniferous forests and secondary forests will be key to bumblebee conservation for adaptation to climate change.


2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingguo Ma ◽  
Xuemei Wang ◽  
Frank Veroustraete ◽  
Qinghan Dong

2013 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Pratolongo ◽  
Carla Mazzon ◽  
Georgina Zapperi ◽  
María Julia Piovan ◽  
Mark M. Brinson

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 4619-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clifton R. Sabajo ◽  
Guerric le Maire ◽  
Tania June ◽  
Ana Meijide ◽  
Olivier Roupsard ◽  
...  

Abstract. Indonesia is currently one of the regions with the highest transformation rate of land surface worldwide related to the expansion of oil palm plantations and other cash crops replacing forests on large scales. Land cover changes, which modify land surface properties, have a direct effect on the land surface temperature (LST), a key driver for many ecological functions. Despite the large historic land transformation in Indonesia toward oil palm and other cash crops and governmental plans for future expansion, this is the first study so far to quantify the impacts of land transformation on the LST in Indonesia. We analyze LST from the thermal band of a Landsat image and produce a high-resolution surface temperature map (30 m) for the lowlands of the Jambi province in Sumatra (Indonesia), a region which suffered large land transformation towards oil palm and other cash crops over the past decades. The comparison of LST, albedo, normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) between seven different land cover types (forest, urban areas, clear-cut land, young and mature oil palm plantations, acacia and rubber plantations) shows that forests have lower surface temperatures than the other land cover types, indicating a local warming effect after forest conversion. LST differences were up to 10.1 ± 2.6 °C (mean ± SD) between forest and clear-cut land. The differences in surface temperatures are explained by an evaporative cooling effect, which offsets the albedo warming effect. Our analysis of the LST trend of the past 16 years based on MODIS data shows that the average daytime surface temperature in the Jambi province increased by 1.05 °C, which followed the trend of observed land cover changes and exceeded the effects of climate warming. This study provides evidence that the expansion of oil palm plantations and other cash crops leads to changes in biophysical variables, warming the land surface and thus enhancing the increase of the air temperature because of climate change.


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