What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives in its various guises such as risk, luck, and coincidence. The book goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, five ‘dualities’ are proposed that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise. The book starts by tackling probability (‘Pure Chance’) and in successive sections (‘Life Chances’, ‘Happy Accidents’, ‘Taking Charge of Chance’) addresses respectively the role of chance in life, the positive face of uncertainty, and the ways in which we are able to act to mitigate and exploit chance. This is not primarily a mathematical book, but it does introduce basic concepts from the theory of probability, and some statistics. Although this book tackles serious subjects, it is written in an accessible way and is aimed at an educated and curious lay reader, to be read for pleasure and general interest. It includes graphical representations of the effects of chance, brain teasers, anecdotes, and discussion of the words we use to talk about uncertainty.
Tversky and Kahneman’s Cognitive Illusions: Who Can Solve Them, and Why?
