Experiencing a significant win and its socio-demographic and motivational predictors: A comparative analysis between pure-chance gamblers from Poland and France

The research on the relationship between wins and gambling behaviour most often focuses on winning considerably large amounts of money. It seems, however, that it is not the amount of the win that exerts a decisive influence on gambling behaviour but the significance that the player assigns to the win. Therefore, we adopted the concept of “significant win”, a win perceived by gamblers as important to them. The research aimed to discover what kind of wins are experienced as significant and what factors explain experiencing wins as significant. The research conducted in Poland (N = 3,143) and France (N = 5,692) also had a comparative goal: discovering intercultural differences in experiencing significant wins. The computer-assisted web survey was conducted among gamblers engaging in pure-chance gambling, selected from representative samples in both countries. Logistic regression models were used to examine predictors of significant win experience in both countries and cross-countries differences between them. The results demonstrated that Polish gamblers more frequently considered wins significant when accompanied by strong, often negative emotions and were objectively higher than French gamblers. A significant win was more frequently associated with a positive experience in the view of French gamblers. The common predictors of a significant win experience in both countries were: being in debt, experiencing the win of a close person, gambling in a game of pure chance other than lotteries, more systematic pursuit of gambling, enhancement and coping gambling motivations. The age of the initiation into gambling was a significant predictor only in the French sample, while financial motivation – in the Polish one. The results confirmed that the subjective perception of gambling wins is only partially related to the amounts of wins, which has practical implications for planning prophylactic strategies.

What are the Chances of That?

What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives in its various guises such as risk, luck, and coincidence. The book goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, five ‘dualities’ are proposed that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise. The book starts by tackling probability (‘Pure Chance’) and in successive sections (‘Life Chances’, ‘Happy Accidents’, ‘Taking Charge of Chance’) addresses respectively the role of chance in life, the positive face of uncertainty, and the ways in which we are able to act to mitigate and exploit chance. This is not primarily a mathematical book, but it does introduce basic concepts from the theory of probability, and some statistics. Although this book tackles serious subjects, it is written in an accessible way and is aimed at an educated and curious lay reader, to be read for pleasure and general interest. It includes graphical representations of the effects of chance, brain teasers, anecdotes, and discussion of the words we use to talk about uncertainty.

Pure-Chance Jobs versus a Labor Market: The Impact on Careers of a Random Serial Dictatorship for First Job Seekers

Do workers' first jobs affect their careers? Do such first-job effects (FJEs) vary across worker types? If so, can policy improve upon a “free” labor market by altering initial worker-employer matches? We study these questions using Norway's pre-2013 system of assigning doctors to their first job–residencies–through a random serial dictatorship. This generated individual-level variation in workers' choice sets over employers, which we use as instrumental variables to estimate FJEs. We then decompose workers' preferences over first employers into FJEs-on-earnings and employer “amenity value” components, showing how matches and worker welfare changed in the post-2013 decentralized labor market.

REVEALING CONTINGENCY THROUGH SHUN'S 舜 ASCENSION TO THE THRONE

This article examines the story of Shun's 舜 ascension to the throne. This story has drawn considerable attention throughout Chinese history because of its significance with regard to political succession. However, in this article, I shed light on a different dimension of the story: its relevance to the issue of contingency. I investigate four texts, two excavated and two transmitted: Qiongda yi shi 窮達以時 (Failure and Success Depend on Times), Tang Yu zhi dao 唐虞之道 (The Way of Yao and Shun), the Mengzi 孟子, and the Xunzi 荀子. At one extreme, Qiongda yi shi highlights that Shun became a king by pure chance, while at the other extreme, Xunzi interprets the event as a necessary one, emphasizing that Shun cannot but succeed Yao. The other two texts fall somewhere in between the two extremes. I use these four texts to showcase different ways of thinking about areas over which humans are believed to lack control. My claim is that these four texts offer different accounts of the same event—Shun's ascension—because they see the event from different perspectives: from a perspective of the chosen, from a perspective of the chooser, from a mise-en-scène, and from a perspective of not of this world, respectively. I argue that the diverse perspectives of these texts entail the different understandings of several related issues such as the degree of human control over the event, the important features of the event, and the content of the moral and political lessons that we draw from the event.

Limited Domain Structure for Conjunction Errors

People make conjunction errors, rating a conjunction as more likely than one of its constituents, across many different types of problems. They commit the conjunction fallacy in problems of social judgment, in physical reasoning tasks, and in gambles of pure chance. Doctors commit the fallacy when making judgments about hypothetical patients. Do all these errors share an underlying cause? Or does the fallacy arise independently in different types of reasoning? In a series of studies, we look for structure in conjunction errors across various types of problems. We find that error magnitudes are related for some clusters of items, but there does not appear to be a universal relationship between all cases of this fallacy.

Problem and non-problem gamblers: a cross-sectional clustering study by gambling characteristics

ObjectivesGambling characteristics are factors that could influence problem gambling development. The aim of this study was to identify a typology of gamblers to frame risky behaviour based on gambling characteristics (age of initiation/of problem gambling, type of gambling: pure chance/chance with pseudoskills/chance with elements of skill, gambling online/offline, amount wagered monthly) and to investigate clinical factors associated with these different profiles in a large representative sample of gamblers.Design and settingThe study is a cross-sectional analysis to the baseline data of the french JEU cohort study (study protocol : Challet-Boujuet al, 2014). Recruitment (April 2009 to September 2011) involved clinicians and researchers from seven institutions that offer care for or conduct research on problem gamblers (PG). Participants were recruited in gambling places, and in care centres. Only participants who reported gambling in the previous year between 18 and 65 years old were included.Participants gave their written informed consent, it was approved by the French Research Ethics Committee.ParticipantsThe participants were 628 gamblers : 256 non-problem gamblers (NPG), 169 problem gamblers without treatment (PGWT) and 203 problem gamblers seeking treatment (PGST).ResultsSix clustering models were tested, the one with three clusters displayed a lower classification error rate (7.92%) and was better suited to clinical interpretation : ‘Early Onset and Short Course’ (47.5%), ‘Early Onset and Long Course’ (35%) and ‘Late Onset and Short Course’ (17.5%). Gambling characteristics differed significantly between the three clusters.ConclusionsWe defined clusters through the analysis of gambling variables, easy to identify, by psychiatrists or by physicians in primary care. Simple screening concerning these gambling characteristics could be constructed to prevent and to help PG identification. It is important to consider gambling characteristics : policy measures targeting gambling characteristics may reduce the risk of PG or minimise harm from gambling.Trial registration numberNCT01207674(ClinicalTrials.gov); Results.

Online Gambling of Pure Chance: Wager Distribution, Risk Attitude, and Anomalous Diffusion

Online gambling sites offer many different gambling games. In this work we analyse the gambling logs of numerous solely probability-based gambling games and extract the wager and odds distributions. We find that the log-normal distribution describes the wager distribution at the aggregate level. Viewing the gamblers’ net incomes as random walks, we study the mean-squared displacement of net income and related quantities and find different diffusive behaviors for different games. We discuss possible origins for the observed anomalous diffusion.