What are the Chances of That?

What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives in its various guises such as risk, luck, and coincidence. The book goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, five ‘dualities’ are proposed that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise. The book starts by tackling probability (‘Pure Chance’) and in successive sections (‘Life Chances’, ‘Happy Accidents’, ‘Taking Charge of Chance’) addresses respectively the role of chance in life, the positive face of uncertainty, and the ways in which we are able to act to mitigate and exploit chance. This is not primarily a mathematical book, but it does introduce basic concepts from the theory of probability, and some statistics. Although this book tackles serious subjects, it is written in an accessible way and is aimed at an educated and curious lay reader, to be read for pleasure and general interest. It includes graphical representations of the effects of chance, brain teasers, anecdotes, and discussion of the words we use to talk about uncertainty.

Tversky and Kahneman’s Cognitive Illusions: Who Can Solve Them, and Why?

In the present paper we empirically investigate the psychometric properties of some of the most famous statistical and logical cognitive illusions from the “heuristics and biases” research program by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who nearly 50 years ago introduced fascinating brain teasers such as the famous Linda problem, the Wason card selection task, and so-called Bayesian reasoning problems (e.g., the mammography task). In the meantime, a great number of articles has been published that empirically examine single cognitive illusions, theoretically explaining people’s faulty thinking, or proposing and experimentally implementing measures to foster insight and to make these problems accessible to the human mind. Yet these problems have thus far usually been empirically analyzed on an individual-item level only (e.g., by experimentally comparing participants’ performance on various versions of one of these problems). In this paper, by contrast, we examine these illusions as a group and look at the ability to solve them as a psychological construct. Based on an sample of N = 2,643 Luxembourgian school students of age 16–18 we investigate the internal psychometric structure of these illusions (i.e., Are they substantially correlated? Do they form a reflexive or a formative construct?), their connection to related constructs (e.g., Are they distinguishable from intelligence or mathematical competence in a confirmatory factor analysis?), and the question of which of a person’s abilities can predict the correct solution of these brain teasers (by means of a regression analysis).

Cognitive Function and Blood Pressure Examination in Padang Bulan Selayang II Subdistrict

Hypertension is one of the main health problems in Indonesia, which if not controlled will result in health, psychological, social and economic burdens. A common clinical consequence of hypertension is impaired cognitive function, namely dementia and senility, which can be examined through the Indonesian version of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA-Ina). The service program which is carried out by the Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sumatera Utara (FK USU) is an examination of cognitive function and blood pressure in Padang Bulan Selayang II region. Examinations are carried out in accordance with the 2017 World Alzheimer Month and are followed by lay seminars on dementia, brain gym exercises (gerak latih otak/GLO) as well as brain teasers. The activity involved 26 participants from integrated development post (pos pembinaan terpadu/Posbindu) with a mean systolic blood pressure (TDS) 131.54 + 18.70 mmHg, mean diastolic blood pressure (TDD) 83.85 + 8.98 mmHg, mean mean arterial pressure 99, 69 + 9.47 mmHg and a mean MoCA-Ina score of22 + 5.03. Blood pressure monitoring, education of community awareness and cognitive stimulation at regular intervals are expected to prevent and reduce the incidence of hypertension, dementia and senility.

APLIKASI GAME WIN START LA BERBASIS ANDROID

Game is one of the entertainment that is fun and interesting way to spend leisure time or relieve boredom at the time of waiting, a variety of games or game has been created and produced many free or paid. Starting from a brain teaser game theme, sports, to adventure. An android based games can provide entertainment for players. The purpose of this study was to design and build a game that can be played in your spare time and eliminate boredom when waiting. The method used in designing and building this game is the method of "Multimedia Development". Stages in the process of this study is Phase Concept , Design , Material Collection and Testing. By using the Unity Game Engine programming language and Android SDK, will produce an android game titled "Application-Based Android Game Win Start" to increase knowledge in making games with the theme of brain teasers and applying the lessons of artificial intelligence (Playing Game) with a greedy algorithm, uses 2D graphics and is designed for a single player

Case vignettes and other brain teasers of monoclonal gammopathies

There are a number of rare monoclonal gammopathies that do not have a characteristic laboratory, imaging, or pathologic study. Recognition requires keeping the specific syndrome in mind. This article reviews 6 rare syndromes associated with monoclonal proteins and gives specific “pearls” so a clinician can be certain not to overlook these important disorders that easily can be misdiagnosed as MGUS, Waldenstrom, and multiple myeloma.