Specific Risk Principle

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

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Risk Factors for Failure in Conservatively Treated Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures: A Systematic Review

Global Spine Journal ◽

10.1177/2192568220982279 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 219256822098227

Author(s):

Max J. Scheyerer ◽

Ulrich J. A. Spiegl ◽

Sebastian Grueninger ◽

Frank Hartmann ◽

Sebastian Katscher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Systematic Review ◽

Treatment Failure ◽

Patient Specific ◽

Mineral Density ◽

Radiographic Findings ◽

Specific Risk ◽

Fracture Development ◽

Predict Treatment Failure

Study Design: Systematic review. Objectives: Osteoporosis is one of the most common diseases of the elderly, whereby vertebral body fractures are in many cases the first manifestation. Even today, the consequences for patients are underestimated. Therefore, early identification of therapy failures is essential. In this context, the aim of the present systematic review was to evaluate the current literature with respect to clinical and radiographic findings that might predict treatment failure. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive, systematic review of the literature according to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) checklist and algorithm. Results: After the literature search, 724 potentially eligible investigations were identified. In total, 24 studies with 3044 participants and a mean follow-up of 11 months (range 6-27.5 months) were included. Patient-specific risk factors were age >73 years, bone mineral density with a t-score <−2.95, BMI >23 and a modified frailty index >2.5. The following radiological and fracture-specific risk factors could be identified: involvement of the posterior wall, initial height loss, midportion type fracture, development of an intravertebral cleft, fracture at the thoracolumbar junction, fracture involvement of both endplates, different morphological types of fractures, and specific MRI findings. Further, a correlation between sagittal spinal imbalance and treatment failure could be demonstrated. Conclusion: In conclusion, this systematic review identified various factors that predict treatment failure in conservatively treated osteoporotic fractures. In these cases, additional treatment options and surgical treatment strategies should be considered in addition to follow-up examinations.

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