Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

Application of Gustav in Entertainment Places Fire Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 668-669 ◽  
pp. 1413-1416
Author(s):  
Yun Tao Zhao ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Full Life Cycle ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Entertainment places have special structure; large fire load, personnel-intensive features, and function layout often change in the process of operation, so the fire risk level will change frequently. The current fire risk assessment studies for only one stage in entertainment places without considering the impact of risk factors at different stages. For this situation, this paper presents a fire risk assessment method in entertainment places based on full life cycle, divides the entertainment places into different stages, analyzes risk factors at different stages, and then uses the method of Gustav to get the fire risk levels of different stages. The assessment results show that the level of fire risk in entertainment places are different at different stages, you can take the appropriate risk control measures against fire risk factors at different stages, which has important guiding significance for fire risk management in entertainment places.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

scholarly journals The belief that politics drive scientific research & its impact on COVID-19 risk assessment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249937
Author(s):  
Danielle M. McLaughlin ◽  
Jack Mewhirter ◽  
Rebecca Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
The Impact

We use survey data collected from 12,037 US respondents to examine the extent to which the American public believes that political motives drive the manner in which scientific research is conducted and assess the impact that such beliefs have on COVID-19 risk assessments. We find that this is a commonly held belief and that it is negatively associated with risk assessments. Public distrust in scientists could complicate efforts to combat COVID-19, given that risk assessments are strongly associated with one’s propensity to adopt preventative health measures.

Hormesis - Implications for risk assessment caloric intake (body weight) as an exemplar

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 454-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Turturro ◽  
Bruce Hass ◽  
Ronald W Hart
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caloric Intake ◽  
Toxicity Testing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Hormetic Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hormetic Response

Hormesis can be considered as a parameter which has a non-monotonic relationship with some endpoint. Since caloric intake is such a parameter, and the impact of this parameter on risk assessment has been fairly well characterized, it can provide clues as to how to integrate the information from a hormetic parameter into risk assessments for toxicants. Based on the work with caloric intake, one could: (a) define a biomarker for hormetic effect; (b) integrate specific information on when in the animals lifespan the parameter is active to influence parameters such as survival; (c) evaluate component effects of the overall hormetic response; and (d) address the consequences of a non-monotonic relationship between the hormetic parameter and endpoints critical for risk assessment. These impacts on risk assessments have been characterized for chronic tests, but are also true for short-term tests. A priority is the characterization of the dose-response curves for hormetic parameters. This quantification will be critical in utilizing them in risk assessment. With this information, one could better quantitatively address the changes one expects to result from the hormetic parameter, and limit the uncertainty and variability which occurs in toxicity testing.

scholarly journals Pollution Characteristics of Microplastics in Soils in Southeastern Suburbs of Baoding City, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Du ◽  
Handong Liang ◽  
Zhanping Li ◽  
Jie Gong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Ferrous Metal ◽  
Reference Method ◽  
Negative Ion ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Environmental Media ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Water Ecosystems ◽  
The Impact

Microplastics (MPs) are emerging pollutants that exist in different environmental media. Because of their wide range and large potential environmental hazards, they have attracted widespread attention in recent years. At present, the research on MP is mostly concentrated on the water ecosystems, and the impact on soil ecosystems is less studied. In this study, 12 typical soil samples from southeastern suburbs of Baoding city were investigated and characterized by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) combined with mass high resolution mode and positive and negative ion imaging mode. Four types of MPs, poly (propylene) (PP), poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC), poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET), and poly (amide 6) (PA6), were quickly identified, of which PET and PA6 accounted for the largest proportion of both up to 30.2%; the particle size of the obtained MPs ranged from 0 to 35 μm, of which the proportion of <10 μm MPs was more than 26.3%, while that of 20–25 μm and 25–35 μm MPs was relatively small (17.83% and 9.3%, respectively). Risk assessment results of the MP in the soil showed that the risk level of MPs in the non-ferrous metal industrial parks and in concentrated with small workshops areas is relatively high, and attention should be paid to such areas. In addition, the study provides a reference method for the investigation and risk assessment of MPs in terrestrial soils, coastal beaches, and sediments.

A neural network approach for retailer risk assessment in the aftermarket industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1631-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirin Rezaei ◽  
Sajjad Shokouhyar ◽  
Mostafa Zandieh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Management Process

Purpose Given the competitive environment and complicated relationships in supply chains in the modern era, it is important to take into account internal and external risks. In addition, proper methods must be designed to evaluate these risks correctly. The purpose of this paper is to provide a suitable map based on the artificial neural network technique to assess and classify the risk levels of retailers who have interconnected rules in the downstream of the supply chain. Design/methodology/approach In this research, a model for risk assessment with a hexagonal grid and 2D self-organizing map was applied. Findings According to the results, the model used in the study can provide a basis for classification of retailers based on the specified risk levels defined by the experts and risk managers of the company. Also with the model’s visual output, managers can have a better understanding of the distribution of the risk level of retailers. Practical implications The proposed methodology can be adopted by managers to assess the risk of members involved in the supply chain, helping them to formulate the risk mitigation strategies based on the risk levels. Originality/value As a part of the risk management process, organizations can use this developed method to reduce the existing risks imposed by the members or customers on the company.

scholarly journals An evaluation of risk-based monitoring in pragmatic trials in UK Clinical Trials Units

Trials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Beever ◽  
Lizzie Swaby
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Good Clinical Practice ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Pragmatic Trials ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background Good Clinical Practice guidelines issued in 2016 encourage risk-based approaches to monitoring clinical trials. This study compared current risk assessment and monitoring approaches in UK Clinical Trials Units (CTUs) with the published guidance and makes recommendations for risk-based monitoring in pragmatic trials. Methods An online survey of UK Clinical Research Collaboration registered CTUs was administered via email invitation. Forty-nine units were invited, and 23 responded. Respondents were also invited to share copies of risk assessment templates. Results Most CTUs reported using remote combined with on-site monitoring. All reported undertaking a risk assessment for Clinical Trials of Investigational Medicinal Products (CTIMPs) and 21 units did so for non-CTIMPs. Most CTIMP risk assessments used MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) classifications, although some also employed staff judgement. Almost all units based their monitoring on perceived risk level; this number was higher for CTIMPs (n = 22) than for non-CTIMPs (n = 19). In most cases, monitoring plans were produced. More CTUs revisited risk assessments during trials in CTIMPs (n = 21) than in non-CTIMPs (n = 18). Small numbers of units reviewed the monitoring approach always (n = 4) or sometimes (n = 9) and few used the reflection to guide future monitoring. Conclusions A high proportion of UK CTUs are using risk-based monitoring in the UK, as recommended by guidelines, for both CTIMPs and non-CTIMPs. This has the potential to make trials more efficient and reduce costs. However, there appears to be a lack of reflection on the value of these revised approaches. There may be a benefit in CTUs collaborating nationally to improve processes for reflection and making changes during the life course of a trial.

Unjust Disparities? The Impact of Race on Juvenile Risk Assessment Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Black Youth ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Racial Biases ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Robust Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Research on risk assessments has illustrated many utilitarian purposes of these tools, including the robust prediction of recidivism and uniformity in correctional decision making. Recently, however, Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder vocalized his position that actuarial risk assessments could be unintentionally contributing to disproportionate minority contact in the correctional system. This study used data from approximately 2,600 juvenile delinquents assessed with the Ohio Youth Assessment System–Disposition Instrument to examine these claims across subsamples of White and Black youth. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicated that the instrument predicted recidivism similarly across the two groups. There were slightly more prediction errors for Black youth than White youth; however, these differences may be the result of methodological factors rather than empirical realities. The article concluded with a discussion of the implications that potential racial biases have on risk assessment research and practice.

Matching Services to Criminogenic Needs Following Comprehensive Risk Assessment Implementation in Juvenile Probation

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1136-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Nelson ◽  
Gina M. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Juvenile Courts ◽  
Juvenile Probation ◽  
Related Case ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Case Planning

One emphasis of juvenile justice reform has been implementation of risk assessment instruments to improve case planning. This study examined the ability of juvenile probation departments to apply the risk-needs-responsivity (RNR) framework into case planning following a comprehensive implementation protocol. Data were collected on 385 adolescent offenders across three probation departments following implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY) and an RNR-related case planning policy. As expected, as risk levels of youth increased, probation departments assigned more services and addressed more criminogenic need areas in their case plans. Most case plans (86%) adhered to the policy to limit the number of needs addressed at one time. The quality of service-to-need matching varied by criminogenic need area, risk level, and site. Implications to juvenile courts’ and probation officers’ case planning and the challenges of research on service-to-need matching are discussed.

scholarly journals A Risk Assessment Framework to Reduce Risk Level and Optimize Software Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Puri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Management Control ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Reduce Risk

Risk management for software projects is intended to minimize the chances of unexpected events, or more specifically to keep all possible outcomes under tight management control with making judgments about how risk events are to be treated, valued, compared and combined. It is necessary to have some well-founded infrastructure for the identification of software security risks as well as the application of appropriate controls to manage risks. To be truly beneficial, the risk analysis framework must be granular and practical enough to produce a customizable roadmap of which problems exist, and to rank them in order of severity. The paper a risk assessment framework for a precise, unambiguous and efficient risk analysis with qualitative risk analysis methodologies and tree based techniques by exploiting the synthesis of risk analysis methods with object-oriented modeling, semi-formal methods and tools, in order to improve the security risk analysis of software and security policy implementation of security-cri tical systems to reduce risk levels and optimizequality instructions.

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