Outlier analysis: Natural resources and immigration policy

This replication underlines the importance of outlier diagnostics since many researchers have long neglected influential observations in OLS regression analysis. In his article, entitled “Primary Resources, Secondary Labor,” Shin finds that advanced democracies with increased natural resource wealth, particularly from oil and natural gas production, are more likely to restrict low-skill immigration policy. By performing outlier diagnostics, this replication shows that Shin’s findings are a statistical artifact. When one outlying country, Norway, is removed from the sample data, I observe almost no significant and negative relationship between oil wealth and immigration policy. When two outlying countries are excluded, the effect of oil wealth completely disappears. Robust regression analysis, a widely used remedial method for outlier problems, confirms the results of my outlier diagnostics.

The Baloch Insurgency in Pakistan and the Chinese Connection

This article examines the interplay between big ticket investment projects financed by the Chinese capital and ethno-nationalism in the province of Balochistan. It argues that the growing Chinese presence in Balochistan has provided a new impetus to an already simmering Baloch nationalist resistance. Balochistan has profuse natural resource wealth, yet its riches have not benefited its people. The Baloch are one of the most deprived communities in Pakistan. Successive central governments have exploited the province’s resources in the name of development to the detriment of its inhabitants. The advent of CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) has exacerbated Baloch grievances. They believe that mega-development projects like Gwadar port would impinge adversely on local demography by attracting a huge influx of economic migrants and render the Baloch minority in their own land. The insurgent groups view China as a ‚partner in crime‘ and have responded by selectively targeting Chinese assets and personnel. The article analyses the nature of resistance to Chinese presence and the changing modus of insurgent groups. It argues that Islamabad’s attempts to deter the attacks by intensifying the militarisation of the province are counterproductive as they reinforce Baloch opposition to CPEC.

Balúčské povstání v Pákistánu a souvislost s Čínou

This article examines the interplay between big ticket investment projects financed by the Chinese capital and ethno-nationalism in the province of Balochistan. It argues that the growing Chinese presence in Balochistan has provided a new impetus to an already simmering Baloch nationalist resistance. Balochistan has profuse natural resource wealth, yet its riches have not benefited its people. The Baloch are one of the most deprived communities in Pakistan. Successive central governments have exploited the province’s resources in the name of development to the detriment of its inhabitants. The advent of CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) has exacerbated Baloch grievances. They believe that mega-development projects like Gwadar port would impinge adversely on local demography by attracting a huge influx of economic migrants and render the Baloch minority in their own land. The insurgent groups view China as a ‚partner in crime‘ and have responded by selectively targeting Chinese assets and personnel. The article analyses the nature of resistance to Chinese presence and the changing modus of insurgent groups. It argues that Islamabad’s attempts to deter the attacks by intensifying the militarisation of the province are counterproductive as they reinforce Baloch opposition to CPEC.

Islamic Constitutions and Democracy

There is an ongoing debate on the relationship between Islam and (lack of) democracy. Considerable literature shows that Islam, represented as an informal institution by Muslim population share, has a negative effect on democracy. This study examines the effects of formal institutions, specifically constitutions that prescribe Islamic law ( Shari’a) as a source of legislation, on democracy. We use a newly developed coding of the degree to which Islam is incorporated in constitutions. Our empirical results show that the constitutional entrenchment of Islamic law has a negative and significant effect on democracy. Our findings are robust to using different estimators and instrumental variable regressions, employing alternative measures of democracy and controlling for Muslim population, natural resource wealth, and additional control variables. While we show that Islamic constitutionalism is a reason for a democracy deficit in Muslim-majority countries, we find no evidence that Islam is inimical to democracy when not entrenched in the constitution.

Natural resource wealth and the informal economy

The ‘resource curse’ associated with natural resource abundance has long been a subject of study across multiple disciplines. Though much research has focused on possible effects of resource wealth on the formal economy, little is known about how such wealth affects the informal sector, a substantial portion of global economic activity. We posit that resource windfalls directly contribute to growth in the informal economy, as investment and spending patterns associated with such revenues limit opportunities within the formal sector and thus channel more labor and businesses into the informal sector. We test these claims across a panel of over 120 countries for the period 1985 to 2012. Across multiple model specifications, we find that resource wealth growth is associated with increased informal economic activity.

The European coal curse

In this paper we examine the impact of natural resource wealth by focusing on historical coal-mining across European regions. As an exogenous source of variation in coal extraction activities, we rely on the presence of coal-deposits located on the earth’s surface, which historically facilitated the discovery and extraction of coal. Our results show that former coal-mining regions are substantially poorer, with (at least) 10% smaller per-capita GDP than comparable regions in the same country that did not mine coal. We provide evidence that much of this lag is explained by lower levels of human capital accumulation and that this human-capital effect is concentrated in men. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that the persistently lower levels of human capital in coal mining regions that we document result from the crystallization of negative attitudes towards education and lower future orientations in these regions.

Are we measuring natural resource wealth correctly? A reconceptualization of natural resource value in the era of climate change

Underlying the management of revenues from natural resource extraction is a set of assumptions about how abundant and how valuable these resources are. Nevertheless, existing approaches to measuring the value of extractive resources are seriously flawed. This paper proposes two avenues for improving them. It explains how a multidimensional approach to measuring resource wealth can be used to identify the policy challenges that a country might face as it sets out its strategy for managing extractive revenues. It also provides a rethinking of the valuation of extractive wealth by integrating environmental considerations. Extractive activities can at times incur a great loss of (renewable) opportunity income, either directly or indirectly, because of their environmental impact. By analysing a range of examples from across the globe, this paper extracts key lessons on the true value of extractives and why it matters for policy makers, civil society, and international donors today.